Transcript projections2-EU workshop-energy_manufacturing industries

Workshop on the
Criteria to establish projections scenarios
Sectoral projection guidance: energy
industries; combustion in manufacturing and
construction; fugitive emissions from
production and transport of fuels
Mario Contaldi, TASK-GHG
Emanuele Peschi, TASK-GHG
Ankara , 15-17 March 2016
Reporting requirements
• Sectoral projection guidance:
• (i) 1.A.1 energy industries
• (ii) 1.A.2 combustion in manufacturing and
construction
• (iii) 1.B fugitive emissions from production
and transport of fuels
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Outline of presentation
• Source description
• Economic assumptions and activity data
• Technology assumptions and emission
factors
• EU ETS / non ETS sources
• Links with other CRF categories
• Policies and measures
• GHG projection indicators
• Source specific QA/QC
• Discussion
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• 1.A.1 energy industries
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1.A.1 Energy Industries
• Comprises emissions from fuels combusted by
the fuel extraction or energy-producing
industries::
– 1A1a Electricity and heat production, including
Electricity generation, Combined heat and power
(CHP), Heat plants
– 1A1b Petroleum refining
– 1A1c Manufacture of solid fuels and other energy
industries, including
• Manufacture of solid fuels
• Other energy industries
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Activity data projections: energy industries
• Wide variety of different modeling approaches and
datasets are available and in use at an EU level and
by individual MS.
• Depending on the available information, the
proposed approach to projecting future activity
data is as follows:
– If an appropriate national-level energy model is
available, use Tier 3
– f some MS level information is available, use Tier 2
– Otherwise, use Tier 1
• Share of activity accounted for by sources covered
by the EU ETS and ESD should be separated out
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Activity data projections: energy industries
• Where MS level information is considered to be
insufficient to develop robust projections of future
energy use, Tier 1 approach would be to use results of
EU or international energy models that provide
information on projected fuel use by Member State
e.g. PRIMES, IEA.
• Should be linked to / checked against MS level
information on energy consumption from the
emissions inventory, in order to ensure consistency
• Where data from such models are not provided at the
required level of disaggregation for reporting purposes,
it may be necessary to apportion emissions using a
simplified approach e.g. pro-rata using historical
inventory data
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Activity data projections: energy industries
• Possible options for a Tier 2 approach include
taking national level data on projections of key
parameters (such as GDP, fuel prices,
population) and using these to make
adjustments to international/EU models that
are available.
• To be discussed – possible issues over
access/availability and ease of use of models.
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Activity data projections: energy industries
• Tier 3 approach is to use a detailed MS specific model
of fuel use, covering either all of the relevant sectors
and fuels, or specific models for individual sources.
• Types of models typically available for modelling of
energy demand for this sector include:
– Econometric models
– Optimisation models
– Simulation models
• Engineering models Guidance to include summary of
different types of models including inputs and outputs
and relative pros and cons
• Specific issues to consider include split between ETS
and non-ETS sources, import/export of electricity
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Emission factor projections: energy industries
• Tier 1: where no data are available on emission
factors at the MS level, the default values in the
2006 IPCC Inventory Guidelines can be used.
• Tier 2: as with the Inventory Guidelines, use MS
specific emission factors derived from
measurement (or calculation) – may include
national and/or regional emission factors.
• Tier 3: approach includes technology-specific
emission factors – such factors are generally
more appropriate where non-CO2 greenhouse
gas emissions are concerned.
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ETS / non-ETS sources: energy industries
• Possible options for estimating share of emissions for
sources covered by the EU ETS include the following:
– Option 1: using information from latest historical inventory and
Registries, estimate share of emissions within the sector that
arise from sources covered by the EU ETS
– if no better data are available, assume that % share will remain
constant in the future.
– Alternatively assume that emissions from traded sectors will
decline at same rate as decline in the EU level cap.
• Option 2: More detailed approach considering likely
changes at a MS level based on level of emissions covered
by free allocation, estimated share of emissions to be
covered by the New Entrant Reserve in the MS and
expected levels of emissions from sources where credits
will be obtained by auctioning.
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(ETS –nonETS, continued)
• Option 3: Split fuel consumption for ETS and non-ETS
sources and use energy model to generate GHG
projections separately.
• Linking with other CRF categories • Overlaps with industrial processes – ensure consistency
in activity data and other relevant assumptions
• Examples include:
– Coal consumption activity data – relevant for emissions from
FGD
– Oil consumption activity data – relevant for fugitive
emissions (1.B.2)
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• 1.A.2 Combustion in Manufacturing
Industries & Construction
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Source description: 1.A.2 Combustion in
Manufacturing Industries & Construction
• Comprises primarily CO2 emissions from fuels
combusted by the manufacturing industries &
construction sector:
– 1A2a Iron and steel
– 1A2b Non-ferrous metals
– 1A2c Chemicals
– 1A2d Pulp, paper and print
– 1A2e Food processing, beverages and tobacco
– 1A2f Other (include cement-bricks-glass-tiles)
• Detailed definitions of the above are provided
in the 2006 IPCC Guidelines.
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Activity data projections: 1.A.2 Combustion in
Manufacturing Industries & Construction
• Wide variety of different modeling approaches
and datasets are available and in use at an EU
level and by individual Member States
• Depending on the available information, the
proposed approach to projecting future activity
data is as follows:
– If a projection of future fuel consumption or
production activities in the individual sub-sector is
available for the MS, use Tier 3.
– If an appropriate national-level energy model which
includes fuel consumption activities from the
manufacturing industries & construction is available,
use Tier 2.
– Otherwise, use Tier 1.
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Activity data projections: 1.A.2 Combustion in
Manufacturing Industries & Construction
• Where the MS-level energy model or existing database
is insufficient to project robust future fuel consumption
data in the individual sub-sectors, the tier 1 approach is
to use the results of EU or international energy models
e.g. PRIMES, IEA World Energy Outlook
• Activity data projections from these sources should be
checked against MS level information in the historical
inventory in order to ensure consistency.
• . If the historical data are inconsistent, a simple
approach would be to take the percentage changes
from the EU/international models and apply these to
the data used in the national inventory.
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Activity data projections: 1.A.2 Combustion in
Manufacturing Industries & Construction
• if a national-level energy model can project an
adequate level of fuel consumption and production
activities data for the manufacturing industries &
construction sub-sectors, the projection from the
model should be used (tier 2 approach)
• For a tier 3 approach, projection of MS specific future
fuel consumption at the individual sub-sector level
should be used.
• If projection of future production activities in the
individual sub-sector is available at the MS level, then
the growth rate from this projection can be applied to
the most recent year’s fuel consumption data to
project future fuel consumption for the sector.
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Emission factor projections: 1.A.2 Combustion in
Manufacturing Industries & Construction
• Tier 1: where no data are available on
emission factors at the MS level, the default
values in the IPCC Inventory Guidelines can be
used.
• Tier 2: as with the Inventory Guidelines, use
MS specific emission factors derived from
measurement (or calculation) – may include
national and/or regional emission factors
taken from inventory.
• Tier 3: technology-specific emission factors?
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ETS / non-ETS sources: manufacturing
• As with 1.A.1, many of the emission sources in
this sector will be covered by the EU ETS.
• Same options as for 1.A.1:
– Option 1: using information from latest historical
inventory and Registries, estimate share of emissions
within the sector that arise from sources covered by
the EU ETS
– if no better data are available, assume that % share
will remain constant in the future.
– Alternatively assume that emissions from traded
sectors will decline at same rate as decline in the EU
level cap.
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ETS / non-ETS sources: manufacturing
• Option 2: More detailed approach considering
likely changes at a MS level based on level of
emissions covered by free allocation, estimated
share of emissions to be covered by the New
Entrant Reserve in the MS and expected levels of
emissions from sources where credits will be
obtained by auctioning.
• Option 3: Split fuel consumption for ETS and nonETS sources and use energy model to generate
GHG projections separately.
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Linking with other CRF categories: 1.A.2
Combustion in Manufacturing Industries &
Construction
• Overlaps with industrial processes – ensure
consistency in activity data and other relevant
assumptions
• Examples include:
– Oil consumption activity data – relevant for emissions
from catalytic burning and conversion loss of refineries
(2.B.5)
– Activity data for industrial combustion should be used
for industrial processes (2.A-2.D, e.g. cement and steel
production )
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• 1.B Fugitive emissions from production
and transport of fuels
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Source description: 1.B Fugitive emissions
from production and transport of fuels
• Comprises of fugitive emissions, including CH4 and CO2, from
fuel extraction, processing, storage and transport to the point of
final use.
• The 2006 IPCC guidelines subdivide the sector using the
International Standard Industrial Classification as follows:
– 1B1 Solid fuels (i.e. coal)
– 1B2 Oil and natural gas
• Primary sources of fugitive emissions from coal mining and
handling process include ventilation air and degasification
systems for underground mines, surface mining area, abandoned
mines and flaring of drained methane. Closed or abandoned
mines continue to emit GHGs for some time after the mine has
been decommissioned.
• Primary sources of fugitive emissions from oil and natural gas
systems include equipment leaks, evaporation losses, venting,
flaring and accidental releases.
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Activity data projections: 1.B.1 Coal mines
• 1B1 Coal mines – in operation:
– If future projection of the coal production activities and CH4
recovery and utilisation information for individual mines within
the MS is available, use Tier 3.
– If future projection of the coal production activities information
at the national level is available, use Tier 2
– Otherwise, use Tier 1.
• 1B1 Coal mines – post mining:
– If future projection of the mine closures, gas reserve, flooding
expectations, and CH4 recovery and utilisation information for
individual mines and mine areas within the MS is available, use
Tier 3.
– If future projection of the mine closure information at the
national level is available, use Tier 2
– Otherwise, use Tier 1.
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Activity data projections: 1.B.2 Oil and gas
• Overall proposed approach:
– If future projection of the oil & gas production volume in
the MS level is available, use Tier 2
– Otherwise, use Tier 1.
• Tier 1: If fugitive emissions from national GHG
inventory and historical oil & gas production data do
not show considerable changes in recent years, most
recent emissions should be used and held constant.
• Tier 2: For each source, reported fugitive emissions
should be compared to historical production data in
order to determine a correlation. This relationship
should be applied to a projection of oil & gas
production at the national level for future years to
derive emissions.
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Emission factor projections:
1.B.1 Coal mines
• Coal mines – in operation:
– Tier 1: use the default emissions factors from 2006
IPCC Guidelines.
– Tier 2: use the emission factor reported in the most
recent MS GHG inventory.
• Coal mines – post mining:
– If mine-specific emission factor and decline curves
based on measured historic emissions is known, use
Tier 3
– If a MS-specific emission factor is available, use Tier 2.
– Otherwise, use Tier 1 (IPCC Guidelines).
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Emission factor projections:
1.B.2 Oil and gas
• Tier 1: Use default emission factors from 2006 IPCC
Inventory Guidelines.
• Tier 2: Using the historical oil & gas production
activities and fugitive emissions from the sector at
the MS level, emissions factor expressed in units of
mass emissions per unit volume of oil or gas
throughput can be calculated. This is held constant
for the future years.
• Tier 3: If there are known policies and programmes
specifically targeted at reducing fugitive emissions
from this sector and data on potential impacts is
available at the MS-level, this can be taken into
account.
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Linking with other CRF categories: 1.B Fugitive
emissions from production and transport of fuels
• Overlaps with energy industries – ensure
consistency in activity data and other relevant
assumptions
• Examples include:
– Oil and gas production volumes
– Coal production volumes
– Estimated imports / exports
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Source specific QA/QC
• First step is general QA/QC (TCCCA)
• Checking input and output data against those data in
international models/outputs, and accounting for any
divergences.
• Checking for consistency with relevant data on process
emissions.
• Checking against the historical time series for activity
data and emission factors as well as overall emissions.
• Projections developed should be checked against
legislative and other limits on emissions. These include
EU-level commitments (such as the EU ETS and ESD) as
well as national and/or regional targets (such as carbon
budgets/caps for countries, regions or sectors).
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Discussion points
• Level of source disagregation versus guidance
detail
• Level of detail on characteristics and relative
pros and cons of different energy models
• Options for separating out ETS and non-ETS
sources
• Taking into account electricity imports/
exports
• Taking into account CCS ?
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