Transcript Unipolar World - people.vcu.edu

The Future of the
International System
Trends and Transformations?
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Unipolarity: Can it Last?
New Cold War
Multipolarity
Joint Leadership
Globalization: Interdependence
Rapid Change and Instability
Decline of Nation-State Power
Challenging States
Wild Cards
1. Unipolarity
• Can it Last?
• It never has before
US Wealth
See When Will China Become a Major Player in Solar? Dave Cavanaugh — September 28, 2010
http://www.pikeresearch.com/blog/articles/when-will-china-become-a-major-player-in-solar
Defense Spending by Nation
Global Military Spending
SIPRI data http://www.sipri.org/research/armaments/milex/factsheet2010
Can Unipolarity Last?
China’s Growing Wealth
Mark Selden, Nation, Region and the Global in East Asia: Conflict and Cooperation, The AsiaPacific Journal: Japan Focus, http://japanfocus.org/-Mark-Selden/3422
2. New Cold War
• One nation catches up to the US
• Rising Challenger
• Declining hegemon
US vs. China
President Obama and President Hu (2010)
Great Power Challenges
• Rival Power
• Ideology
– One-Party State vs. Liberal Democracy
3. Multipolarity
• Many nations catch up to the US
• The US falls back to the pack
A Multipolar System
USA
Russia
Japan
EU Brazil
China
India
Or Another Bipolar System
US India
Russia China
4. Joint Leadership
G-20
5. Globalization:
Interdependence: conflict won’t become war
Welcome to China
Welcome to the US
Welcome to New York
6. Rapid Change and Instability
• The Process of democratization
• Revolution
– Tahrir Square, Cairo 2011
7. Decline of Nation-State Power
The Nation-State System evolves
– Governments weaken
a) Financial Flows that governments can’t
control
b) Organizations that governments can’t
control or defend themselves against
i.
Governments have lost the monopoly on
violence , ideas, and communications
A. Financial Flows that governments can’t control
Developing Asia Countries Net Private Capital Flows
(from Commonwealth Treasury, Australia, Dr Ken Henry, Restoring Growth to the East Asian Region, 2002,
http://www.treasury.gov.au/documents/265/HTML/docshell.asp?URL=default.asp
US GDP Growth
B. Organizations: AQAM Attacks 2001-2011
Transnational Organized Crime:
Mexico vs. Drug Cartels
source:http://www.utexas.edu/international/ioc/safety_updates.html
8. Challenging States
• Iranian power
North Korean Ballistic Missile Ranges
9. Wild Cards
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Climate Change
Energy
Food
Population
Over-urbanization
Migration
Technology:
– Internet
– Drones
– Autonomous robots that enslave humans…