Transcript SENTENCING FOR CRIME CONTROL

SENTENCING
FOR CRIME CONTROL
Mark Kleiman
National Association
of Sentencing Commissions
Chicago
August 7, 2012
COMPARATIVE INCARCERATION RATES
HOW PUNISHMENT
CONTROLS CRIME
• Deterrence
• Incapacitation
• Rehabilitation
• Norm reinforcement
THE COSTS OF PUNISHMENT
• Expenditure
• Suffering
–Prisoners
–Family and friends
• Neighborhood effects
• Punishment is a cost, not a benefit
–Benefit is public safety
• Looking for the minimum effective dose
DETERMINANTS
OF DETERRENT EFFECTIVENESS
• Swiftness
• Certainty
• Severity
WHAT MATTERS MOST?
Expected value:
Increasing severity is just as good
as increasing certainty (Becker)
Swiftness and certainty matter most
(Beccaria)/(Kahnemann and Tversky)
Fairness, goodwill, and predictability
Procedural justice (Tyler)
Reinforcing internal locus of control
POSITIVE FEEDBACK
AND TIPPING
• With limited punishment capacity,
each offender’s risk
depends on other offenders’ behavior
• High violation rates as a social trap
• “The perfect threat is
the one you never have to carry out.”
WHY ARE DRUG CRIMES
DIFFERENT?
• Market replacement
• Negative feedback
• Supply control
or violence reduction?
INSTITUTIONAL CORRECTIONS
V.
COMMUNITY CORRECTIONS
• Populations
• Budgets
• The case for justice reinvestment
ENFORCING
CONDITIONS OF
COMMUNITY CORRECTION
• Randomized draconianism
(current system)
• Swift/certain/proportionate sanctions
(HOPE)
RISK AND SUPERVISION
• “Supervising low-risk offenders
increases recidivism”
• Under what conditions is that
claim true?
• What could make it false?
HOPE PROCESS
Warning to probationers in open court.
Required abstinence from illicit drugs.
Randomized drug testing with “hot line.”
Short jail stays as sanctions.
Prompt and reliable sanctions delivery.
Formal treatment only on request or after
multiple failures (behavioral triage).
Phase-down of supervision as reward.
HOPE OUTCOMES
(Compared to routine probation)
• 85% reduction in drug use
• 50% reduction in new arrests
• 50% reduction in days-behind-bars
– No more jail days
– Fewer revocations
– Fewer sentences on new charges
80% successful
(free and drug-free)
at one year
EXPANDING HOPE
• Parole
• Pretrial release
• Juveniles
• Fresh prison releasees
• Current prisoners
ADDING TO HOPE
• Alcohol monitoring (Sobriety 24/7)
• GPS position monitoring
• Curfew as sanction
Outpatient incarceration:
the virtual prison cell
TRANSFORMING THE SYSTEM
• Mass de-carceration (80%?)
• All felony probation and post-prison
supervision starts with tight monitoring
and HOPE-style sanctioning
• Misdemeanor supervision: “HOPE Lite”
• HOPE as the first sanction for probation
and parole violations
• Prison only for the violent, the
incorrigible, and the absconders