Transcript No Slide Title

Longitudinal Data Across
Multiple Stages Of Life
Substantive Applications
Hanno Petras, Ph.D.
Johns Hopkins University
Collaborators
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Hendricks Brown, USF
Howard Chilcoat, JHU
Nick Ialongo, JHU
Shep Kellam, AIR & JHU
Phil Leaf, JHU
Bengt Muthen, UCLA
Prevention Science Methodology Workgroup
Paper 1:
Developmental Antecedents and Malleability of
Antisocial Personality Disorder - Long-term
Effects of a Universal Classroom Based
Preventive Intervention
Developmental Relationship between Aggressive
Behavior and Antisocial Personality Disorder
(ASPD) in One Cohort of Control Boys (N=138)
BIC=2516.86 Entropy=0.861 # of Iterations=93
6
5.5
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
Elementary School
Middle School
Prevalence of ASPD
Class 3 (16.5%)
Class 2 (58.3%)
Class 1 (25.2%)
69.7%
35.0%
F=Fall
S=Spring
10.7%
1F
1S
2F
2S
3S
4S
5S
6S
7S
Methodological Topics in Growth Modeling
• Impact of particular time points (e.g., in middle
school) for the prediction of distal outcome, over
and above class membership (u on Ys)
• Individual intervention impact over and above
class membership
• Atypical individual development --Outliers
• Modeling of Subgroup variation within Growth
Modeling (e.g., in control conditions, cohorts)
Paper 2:
Specificity/Sensitivity of Predicting
Developments in Aggression Leading to
Violent Juvenile Arrest
Developmental Relationship between Aggressive
Behavior and Violent Juvenile Arrest in Two
Cohorts of Control Boys (N=598)
BIC=7343.99 Entropy=0.789 # of Iterations=149
6
5.5
5
Prevalence of Arrest
4.5
4
3.5 34.4%
3
2.5 30.0%
2
1.5 5.4%
1
1F 1S 2F 2S 3S 4S
100
90
Sensitivity
80
70
Class 3 (11%)
Class 2 (56.4%)
Class 1 (32.6%)
60
Class 3
Class 2
Class 1
50
40
30
20
F=Fall
S=Spring
5S
10
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Methodological Topics in Predicting
Developmental Trajectories
• Sensitivity (false positives) versus Specificity
(false negatives)
• Treatment of Missing Data
• Not only prediction of development, but also
quality of prediction regarding distal
outcomes
Time-to-Event Analysis
• Interval Censoring, in addition to left and right
censoring (i.e., Missing Data problem)
• Analysis of Survival leading to Growth
development (e.g. timing of school suspension
may lead to different trajectories in aggression)
• Bivariate Survival analysis (Time to first drug use
and time to first depressive episode in one model)