Transcript Implementing Single Farm Payments in France?

PRESSURES ON THE CAP:
IMPLICATIONS FOR
INTERNATIONAL TRADE
NEGOTIATIONS
Michel PETIT
[email protected]
Seminar CACP, Delhi February 14, 2013
INTRODUCTION

GLOBAL COLLAPSE OF MUTUAL
UNDERSTANDING AFTER MARRAKECH
(1994)
 CURRENT PARALYSIS IN WTO
 YET BILATERAL
DISCUSSIONS/NEGOTIATIONS…
 MY PURPOSE TODAY:
– DOMESTIC PRESSURES ON EU AG POLICIES
– IMPLICATIONS FOR EU IN TRADE
NEGOTIATIONS
I- PRESSURES ON THE CAP
1. LESSONS FROM THE PAST:
- LITERATURE
- COMMON WISDOM
2. THE CURRENT REFORM PROCESS
3. COMING BACK TO L.T. DRIVERS
4. EDUCATED(?) GUESSES ON FUTURE
OUTCOMES
1. LESSONS FROM THE PAST:
FOUR DRIVERS

DOWNWARD RIGIDITY OF PRICE
SUPPORT LEVEL
=> NOW CONCERNS FOR FARM INCOME
 BUDGET
 EXTERNAL PRESSURES
 ‘NEW’ SOCIETAL CONCERNS
FARM INCOME AND DIRECT PAYMENTS:
Selected indicators, 2009
Pop° GDP/ Farm
Inc.
Head
(M°)
Work
Units
(M°)
FI/WU
UE
27
501
24
134
11.1
12.1
39.1
3.5
UE
15
398
28
112
5.4
20.8
35.0
6.5
UE
12
103
9
22
5.7
3.8
4.1
0.7
€1000 (€ b°)
€1,000
Direct
DP/
payments WU
(€ b°)
€1000
SUPPORT DISPARITIES IN
FRANCE, 2011
FAMILY
INCOME/WU
LARGE CEREAL
FARMS
€ 74,400
DIR. PAYMTS
/WU
€ 32,600
BEEF FARMS
€ 15,000
€ 27,400
SHEEP FARMS
€ 15,000
€ 30,100
2. THE CURRENT REFORM
PROCESS

CONTINUOUS CAP REFORM SINCE
1992
 2013 IS UNIQUE IN EU
 MAIN ELEMENTS OF EU BUDGET
DEBATE (OVERALL SIZE, ALLOCATIONS,
INSTRUMENTS, REBATES)

SPECIFIC AGRICULTURAL ISSUES:
(GREENING AND REBALANCING SINGLE
PAYMENTS; RURAL DEVELOPMENT; RESEARCH)
BACK TO L.T. DRIVERS

CONCERNS FOR FARM INCOMES

BUDGET

EXTERNAL PRESSURES

SOCIETAL CONCERNS
FUTURE GUESSSES

BUDGET WILL BE CUT. HOW MUCH?
 EQUITY ISSUES WITHIN COUNTRIES
AND ACROSS COUNTRIES
 SOME GREENING
 FOOD SAFETY WILL TRUMP OTHER
CONCERNS
 GREATER INSULATION
II- IMPLICATIONS FOR
INTERNATIONAL TRADE
NEGOTIATIONS

E.U. WILL RESPECT ITS
INTERNATIONAL COMMITMENTS

NO E.U. LEADERSHIP IN GENEVA

BILATERAL NEGOTIATIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO RECEIVE ATTENTION
BUT ‘AMBITIOUS AGENDA’ IS
ILLUSORY