Transcript Mearsheimer
Stability in Cold War Africa • External – Colonial Interests and Involvement – Superpower Competition • Pan-African – The Organization of African Unity (OAU) Pledge – Respect Colonial Borders – Non-interference • Domestic – Authoritarian Regimes – Reasonable Economic Growth (1960s and 1970s). • Result: Relative Stability in Africa • Very “Mearsheimer-esque” Anarchy in Post Cold War Africa • External: Withdrawal of US and Soviet Support • Regional: Very Weak Regional Institutions • Domestic: – Collapse of State Authority and Transitions to New Political Regimes. – Economic Collapse—Negative Per Capita GDP Growth during 1980s and 1990s. • Emergence of Pervasive Conflict. • Also Very “Mearsheimer-esque” Three Paths To Stability • Regional Integration – OAU, Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) • External Intervention • Internal Balance of Power Zaire: The Mobutu Regime • Mobutu the Dictator, 1965-1990 • US Support as Bulwark Against Socialism in Africa. • End of Cold War Ends Support • Economic Collapse – GDP growth negative since 1989, estimated at -8.0 percent in 1992. • Political Collapse Mobutu Sese Seko Kuku Ngbendu waza Banga, or, The all-conquering warrior who, because of his endurance and inflexible will to win, will go from conquest to conquest leaving fire in his wake War in the Democratic Republic of Congo • Precipitating Causes Lie in 1994 Rwandan Conflict. • Refugees and Hutu Extremists in Zaire • Rwanda and Uganda join Forces with Zairian Tutsis to Overthrow Mobutu • Install Laurent Kabila as President of Democratic Republic of Congo • Kabila Alienates Domestic Support, and Does Not Control Hutu Extremists • Rwanda and Uganda Begin to Support Congolese Union for Democracy (RCD) Against Kabila Laurent Kabila • Angola Supports Kabila – Involved in Civil War with UNITA – Mobutu had supported UNITA, thus Angolan Government Supports Kabila and UNITA supports the RCD • Namibia: Allied with Angola, thus Fighting in support of Kabila • Zimbabwe: Rivalry with Rwanda and Uganda, thus Fighting in support of Kabila • • • • 700,000 Refugees 2 Million Dead (?) Ceasefire, July 1999 UN Peacekeepers Put in Place (5,537) • Fighting Continues Bigger Point 1 • Collapse of the Cold War Created Anarchic Environment in Large Parts of Africa. • Lack Effective Regional Institutions. • Conducive to Balance of Power Politics. • Increasing Importance of the United Nations. Bigger Point 3 • Mearsheimer Right, but for the Wrong Continent? • In the Absence of the Liberal Conditions – Prosperity – Representative Democracy – Institutions The End of the Cold War has Ushered in a Period of Anarchy in African Politics. What Can Be Done? Finally, Where Was the UN? • During the War, Role Restricted to Humanitarian Aid • Since the War, Involved in Peacekeeping and Peacemaking • What About Rwanda? • Implications for Liberal Vision?