Transcript The all-conquering warrior who, because of his endurance and

War in The Democratic Republic
of Congo
Lecture 13
The Logic of War in the Liberal
Vision
• Deteriorating Economic Conditions
• Zero-Sum Politics
– No Democratic Tradition of Compromise and
Power Sharing
– Politics Becomes a Winner Take All Affair
• Conflict in Environment of Economic
Deprivation Often Produces War.
Adding Realism
• In the Absence of Prosperity and Democracy,
Peace Becomes Dependent Upon Characteristics
of the International System.
• The Power Structure of the International System—
Bipolarity vs. Multipolarity.
• The Ability of International Organizations to Act
as Effective Deterrents to War.
• Thus, the End of the Cold War May Have
Contributed to Warfare in Regions Outside of
Western Europe.
African Stability During the Cold
War
• External
– Colonial Interests and Involvement
– Superpower Competition
• Pan-African
– The Organization of African Unity (OAU) Pledge:
– Respect Colonial Borders
– Non-interference in Domestic Politics of Other
Countries
• Result: Relative Stability in Africa.
• Very “Mearsheimer-esque:” Cold War Conflict
Imposed Stable Borders on African Nations.
Anarchy in Post Cold War Africa
• External: Withdrawal of US and Soviet Support
• Regional: Very Weak Regional Institutions
• Domestic:
– Economic Collapse—Negative Per Capita GDP Growth
during 1980s and 1990s.
– Collapse of State Authority and Transitions to New
Political Regimes.
• Emergence of Pervasive Conflict.
• Also Very “Mearsheimer-esque:” End of the Cold
War Brings About Resurgent Conflict.
Zaire: The Mobutu Regime
• Mobutu and the
Kleptocrats, 1960-1990
• US Support as Bulwark
Against Socialism in
Africa.
• End of Cold War Ends US
Financial Support.
• Economic Collapse
– GDP growth negative since
1989, estimated at -8.0
percent in 1992.
• Collapse of Political
Mobutu Sese Seko Kuku Ngbendu waza Banga, or, “The
Authority
all-conquering warrior who, because of his endurance and
inflexible will to win, will go from conquest to conquest leaving fire in his wake”
The “Mobutu Effect”
700
Per Capita Income
U.S. Dollars
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Source: World Bank. World Development Indicators on CD-ROM
War in Zaire
• Precipitating Causes
Lie in 1994 Rwandan
Conflict.
• Refugees and Hutu
Extremists in Zaire.
• Rwanda and Uganda
join Forces with
Zairian Tutsis to
Overthrow Mobutu
• Install Laurent Kabila as
President of Democratic
Republic of Congo.
• Kabila Alienates Domestic
Support, and Does Not
Control Hutu Extremists.
• Rwanda and Uganda
Begin to Support
Congolese Union for
Democracy (RCD)
Against Kabila.
Laurent Kabila
• Angola Supports
Kabila.
– Involved in Civil War
with UNITA
– Mobutu had supported
UNITA, thus Angolan
Government Supports
Kabila and UNITA
supports the RCD
• Namibia: Allied with Angola, thus Fighting
in support of Kabila.
• Zimbabwe: Rivalry with Rwanda and
Uganda, thus Fighting in support of Kabila
•
•
•
•
700,000 Refugees
2 Million Dead (?)
Ceasefire, July 1999
UN Peacekeepers Put in
Place (5,537)
• Fighting Continues
• January 2001, Kabila
Assassinated by
Bodyguard
• Kabila’s Son Installed as
President
The Role of the UN
• During the War, Role
Restricted to
Humanitarian Aid
• Since the War,
Involved in
Peacekeeping and
Peacemaking
• Implications for
Liberal Vision?
Bigger Point 1
• Collapse of the Cold War
Created Anarchic
Environment in Large
Parts of Africa.
• Lack Effective Regional
Institutions.
• Conducive to Balance of
Power Politics.
• Increasing Importance of
the United Nations.
Bigger Point 2
• Mearsheimer Right, but for the Wrong Continent?
• In the Absence of the Liberal Conditions
– Prosperity
– Representative Democracy
– Institutions
The End of the Cold War has Ushered in a Period of
Anarchy in African Politics.
Peace Appears to Depend Upon Ability of UN to Act
as Effective Deterrent.