Transcript Climate Services

Frontiers in the Application of
High-Impact Climate Services
 Pete Epanchin, USAID/W
 Kevin Coffey, USAID/W
 Aimee Mpambara, USAID/Rwanda
 Jim Anderson, Earth Networks
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What are climate services?
• Climate Services: the development and
provision of weather and climate
information for decision making
– This includes production, translation, transfer, and
use of climate knowledge and information in
policy, planning, and management
Who uses Climate Services?
• Virtually everyone
–
–
–
–
General public: individuals, households
Governments
Non-government organizations
Sector-specific users:
• Agriculture, water, energy, health, emergency
management, tourism, natural resource management,
transportation, urban & infrastructure planning, etc.
• Climate services needs differ by sector and the
type of decision maker and end user
Different climate services
cover different timescales
– Short-term:
• Early warning systems (EWS)
– Short to Medium term:
• Weekly, monthly, seasonal forecasts
– Long-term:
• Planning efforts
– Example from agriculture sector:
Pest outbreak mgmt,
flood early warning
Short
Min. of Ag, NGOs,
farmers,
pastoralists
Seasonal crop decisions,
drought preparedness
Medium
Min. of Ag, farmers,
insurance companies,
traders/suppliers
Irrigation investment
planning, seed research
Long
Min. of Ag, public works,
crop research institutes,
agribusiness
Costs and benefits of climate services
• Timely, accurate, actionable information can
benefit any number of decision makers
• When done right, investments in climate
services and strengthening national
meteorological services are cost-effective
– Can have large Benefit-Cost Ratio
• Timely and effective dissemination of climate
information services is critical
– Many methods: radio, SMS, TV, print, etc.
Design of a climate service
• Start by understanding the problem. Can a climate
service address the problem?
• Climate information services must be demand
driven and tailored to support users’ needs.
• Baseline assessments to understand needs,
capacities, & constraints.
• Evaluate and monitor service performance and
outcomes.
• Sustain improved service delivery.
• What are existing efforts? Can they be
coordinated?
• Share best practices and knowledge.
Sample of climate service activities
• Jamaica: Seasonal Drought Forecast Service.
• Barbados & Eastern Caribbean: Drought forecast, training and
capacity building in regional Met Office.
• Kazakhstan: Wheat production program inclusive of climate
information services.
• Indonesia: Drought insurance
• Philippines: Capacity building of Met Office for improved quality
and dissemination of user-friendly climate data & forecasts.
Improved crop advisories.
• Ethiopia: Integrate climate information services into programs
for pastoralists
• Rwanda: Climate Services to help manage risk in agriculture
• Senegal: Risk management solutions including weather index
insurance
• Mali: Agrometeorological Advisory Program
• Washington:
– Climate Services for Resilient Development (CSRD)
– Climate Services Partnership (CSP)
Ethiopia
• SAPARM: Satellite Assisted Pastoral
Resource Management
– Community mapping of traditional grazing
lands
– Satellite data showing vegetation greeness
(NDVI)
– Data integration, translation, automation
– Print and distribute maps every ten days
SAPARM
What are your needs?
• On index card, write:
– Critical gap that a climate service might
address in your region.
– Please include (optional):
• Your name
• Your mission
• Interested in buying in to a mechanism that would
provide support for climate services?
– Yes, No, or Maybe.
Climate Services
Climate Services: Potential and
Bottlenecks in Regions Most
Vulnerable to Climate Change
Kevin Coffey
E3/GCC/Adaptation
24 February 2016
Climate Services
Rainfed Economies:
• Managing ups and
downs
• Not vulnerability, but
dynamics
• Imagine the perfect
climate information
system
Climate Services
Three Key Bottlenecks
• Observation Networks
• Products Disconnected from Decision-Making
• Data Management/Analysis/Integration
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Climate Services
Observation networks: Spatial
Climate Services
Observation networks: Temporal
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Source: Tufa Dinku, IRI
Climate Services
Reaching Potential: Better Datasets (e.g. CHIRPS, ENACTS)
Station
Satellite
Combined
Source: Tufa Dinku, IRI
Climate Services
Products Disconnected from Decision-Making
• Wrong scale
• Wrong time
• Not tailored
• Ineffective
communication
strategy
Climate Services
Engagement with Users
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Climate Services
Data Management/Analysis/Integration
Huge Knowledge Management Issues:
• Decaying microfiche
• Messy data (not cleaned, organized, digitized, accessible)
• Poor information/data sharing for integration
Analysis: Lack of capacity to conduct analysis that is
responsive to needs
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Climate Services
Increasing Capacity to Tailor Analysis
Climate Services
800
600
400
200
Year
100%
Historic
Predicted
75%
50%
25%
0%
0
200
400
600
800
1000
October-December rainfall, mm
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2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
0
Chance of at least this much rain
Oct-Dec rain (mm)
Automated Real-Time Tools
Climate Services
Conclusions
The Good
• Untapped potential
• Big breakthroughs
The Work
• Learn from what is happening
• Build sustainable systems
• Make sure vulnerable groups benefit
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USAID/Rwanda
• Aimee Mpambara
– Climate Services for Agriculture
• CCAFS, implementing partner
Global Resilience Partnership (GRP)
Project in Uganda, East Africa
USAID Workshop Session: The frontier of high impact climate services
Who Are We?
• 20+ year old company behind the WeatherBug
brand of consumer services
• Provider of key observational data services to
NOAA and the National Weather Service
• Partner with world’s leading governmental,
academic and industry organizations
Offices:
Washington DC
New York
Silicon Valley
Madrid
Reps in 70+ countries
• Operate largest surface weather observation
networks – Station to App
• Core capabilities in sensor networking, cloud
computing, and weather prediction
• 180 staff: science, technology and engineering
focus
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EN Works with Least Developed Countries
•
Build and operate innovative weather and
lightning detection (proxy radar) networks
•
Focus on severe weather monitoring, alerting,
and disaster risk management
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Coverage in 22 African countries (many LDCs)
with more development underway
•
Anchor pilot programs with EAC, ASECNA,
Guinea, and Mozambique
•
Provider of extensive technical assistance via a
Long Term Agreement with UNDP
•
Co-lead of the team that recently won the
Global Resilience Partnership Challenge
•
Infrastructure and VAS partnerships with
mobile network operators (MNOs)
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EN’s Lake Victoria Pilot Project
with East African Community
• Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda,
Rwanda, Burundi
• East African Community (EAC)
Secretariat
• Working directly with each NMHS
organization
• 12 Stations covering Lake Victoria
basin
Alert Polygon
Proxy Radar
Rainfall Estimate
• Verification, training and capacity
building
• Committed to UN to fully
implement in 2015-16
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Global Resilience Partnership:
Early Warning System Project in Uganda
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From June to July 2015, the team
surveyed 100+ fishermen and
conducted Q-sort surveying of 120
fishermen and project stakeholders
(findings presented at AMS 2016)
The team proposed to GRP to address
impacts of high-impact climate-related
hazards on target populations on
Uganda side of Lake Victoria
A geographical area was chosen to
include the lakeside fishing
communities as well as about half of
the cattle corridor
The team was awarded the $1mil GRP
grant in December 2015!
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Global Resilience Challenge: Partner Ecosystem
Trans-African Hydro-Meteorological Observatory
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Regional Headquarters: Nairobi, Kenya
TAHMO’s mission is to get reliable, high quality surface observations out of
the most challenging places by using uniquely adapted weather station
technologies - now deployed in ten African Countries
Human Network International
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Regional Headquarters: Madagascar
NHI has developed a proven mobile phone platform, known as 321, which
can instantly deliver messages to millions of Ugandan phones
African Centres for Lightning and Electromagnetics
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Headquarters: Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda
ACLE’s mission is to bring early detection of and protection from lightning
hazards to all corners of Uganda and Africa
Climate Change Adaptation and ICT of Uganda Chartered
Healthnet
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Headquarters: Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda
CHAI addresses the last mile problem: if technology delivers the necessary
information to communities in danger of climate hazards
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Baseline
GRP Interve
Global Resilience Partnership: EWS Project
No Spatial Relevance
Timely
Timely
•
•
ce
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A complete end-to-end solution:
Weather information to flow from
observation points all the way to
GRP Intervention
vulnerable agriculturalists
Scalable: Millions of mobile phone
owners in Uganda can have onTimely information
Spatially Relevant
demand access to weather
and all 8 million Airtel subscribers will
Spatially Relevant
have free access
Sustainable: Solution to continue to
operate, independently of donor
funding, for the foreseeable future
Collaborators: Uganda National
Meteorological Authority and Airtel
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Climate Challenges According to IPCC
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Where the GRP Team Adds the Most Value
Mesoscale weather phenomena considerations
• To help provide fine-grain, local-level data (current conditions,
hourly forecasts, storm alerts) needed to track and predict
hazardous weather events, primarily thunderstorms:
• high winds, heavy rains, hail, lightning strikes
• flash floods, water spouts, wildfires, etc.
• To aid in environmental and business decisions where smaller
space, shorter time scales are important:
• Fisheries, agro-business, hydroelectric systems
• Airports, military, surface mining operations
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Where the GRP Team Adds the Most Value
Temporal (predictive) scale considerations
Disregard
Indirectly
Improve
Directly
Enable
Completely
Automate
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Innovative Public Private Partnership to Deliver
Infrastructure, Capacity and Sustainability
Met
Agency
Global Resilience
Partnership
Framework
GRP Team
Industries
•Data ownership and review/approval
•Increased capacity to fully utilize the EWS
•Shared data creates sustainability model
•Contractually defined data access
•Development of end user services and
“last mile” delivery
•Cost recovery to sustain the EWS
•Purchase data and services developed by
GRP team and Met Agency
•Industries: Aviation, Utilities, Agriculture,
Mining, Petroleum and others
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Modality of Delivery
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GRP Goals and Targets
Proportion of high-quality
data reported from
observation network
Target: Observations every
900 km2 over target areas
Proportion of decisionmakers and the population
receiving timely and
actionable alerts
Target: 50% of mobile
consumers notified
Amount of revenue
generated through financial
sustainability strategy
Target: 100% sustainable
financing for system
operations and
maintenance in two years
Increased stakeholder
adoption of safer practices in
response to severe weather
alerts
Target: 50% of end-users
report resilient decisions
based on EWS use
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Q&A
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