Transcript 5. Education out of sync with job market and changing

Forging the Social Pact
Chantell Ilbury
Independent Scenario Strategist
CONSTRUCTING THE FUTURE
Global Scenarios
ONE WORLD
Hard Times
New Balls Please
U
V
(2020)
(2014)
Forked Lightning
Ultraviolet UV
DIVIDED WORLD
©Copyright Chantell Ilbury & Clem Sunter - www.mindofafox.com
Characteristics of a winning nation
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A good quality of education
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A strong work ethic and spirit of entrepreneurship
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A high rate of savings ( and early access to capital for businesses that
require it )
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Adequate infrastructure to support a high-growth economy
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Being an export-orientated global player that supplies goods and/or
services to foreign markets that they can’t get elsewhere
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A dual-logic economy ( big and small business work in constructive
partnership )
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Social harmony ( citizens feel they are part of one team with a common
vision )
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Competitive personal and company tax rates
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An attractive environment for foreign direct investment
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Efficient government
©Copyright Chantell Ilbury & Clem Sunter - www.mindofafox.com
South African Scenarios
COMPETITIVENESS +VE
Premier
League
(top 57 countries)
X
Relegation Zone
INTERNAL
CONFLICT
Inclusive
leadership
Pockets of
excellence
Balanced
economy
“Arab Spring”
Failed State
Second Division
COMPETITIVENESS -VE
©Copyright Chantell Ilbury & Clem Sunter - www.mindofafox.com
INTERNAL
HARMONY
Good quality education system
Private
Schools
Bluff
Unequal
society
Royal
Flush
A Few
Public
Schools
Equal society
• Opportunities
for all
• Barriers to access
opportunities
Majority of
Public Schools
Fold
Raise
Poor quality education system
21st Century Megatrends
1. Populations are ageing
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US - issues around state funding of medical care and social
security
China - One-child policy and demographic cliff
Africa, South America and Indonesia still young and growing
populations
Increasing longevity goes hand in hand with rising income levels
2. More economies will return to a steady state
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Japan has led the way, with Europe about to follow suit
Facing a relatively flat economic universe driven by static
populations in more advanced economies
3. We have moved from the Age of Knowledge to the Age of
Intelligence
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Internet has changed access to knowledge – differentiator is way
we use it and create new knowledge
Education about connecting dots – intelligence and cognitive skills
Companies need intelligent strategy to survive
©Copyright Chantell Ilbury & Clem Sunter - www.mindofafox.com
21st Century Megatrends
4. It’s about defending, not growing wealth
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Prices and inflation high, interest rates low, retirement age up
More difficult to make money with money
In a steady-state universe, need to be a value-driven investor intent
on stocks offering a satisfactory dividend yield and modest priceearnings ratio
5. Education out of sync with job market and changing
nature of work
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Worldwide, youth unemployment is an issue
Schools educating for outdated job market
Expect social unrest among young citizens
6. A second, more dangerous scramble for resources
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‘Easy’ days are over – need to access more remote deposits
Growing scarcity of water and food
Marine mining and offshore drilling focus areas for conflict
7. Wars will continue with more sophisticated weapons
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Technology changes conventional weapons to WMDs
Ability to kill forever improving
©Copyright Chantell Ilbury & Clem Sunter - www.mindofafox.com
21st Century Megatrends
8. Like black swans, natural disasters will come out of the blue
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Natural disasters + increasing population = high death tolls
Lagging shift in policies around super-emitters
Short-term government policies clash with long-term climate change
realities
9. Dictatorial regimes will become rarer, but not necessarily
replaced by democracy
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Arab spring has resulted in change…but to what?
Social media a force of change
10. Work/life balance is now even more elusive
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Technological connectivity means working 24/7
Work intruding into every aspect of life, with little time for switch off
The strain is showing
©Copyright Chantell Ilbury & Clem Sunter - www.mindofafox.com
The critical component to forging a social pact
What partnerships are needed to adapt the
education system to meet the realities of the
job market and the changing nature of work?
The Conversation Model
8
9
Options
Decisions
7
10
S.W.O.T
Meaning of
Winning
Playing the Game
6
1
Scenarios
Context
Defining the Game
5
Key
Uncertainties
2
4
3
Rules of
the Game
Players
Scope
©Copyright Chantell Ilbury & Clem Sunter - www.mindofafox.com