Transcript Australia, Industry Housing Association (IHA)

STATE OF AUSTRALIA’S HOUSING INDUSTRY
Dr Harley Dale
Chief Economist, Housing Industry Association
IHA Secretariat
Who is the Housing Industry Association?
2
COUNTRY: Australia
NAME OF ORGANIZATION: Housing Industry Association Ltd
1- ORGANIZATION OVERVIEW:
As the only national industry association for Australian building professionals, the HIA represents
the interests of Australia’s housing industry at regional and national levels. The HIA’s extensive
membership program supports residential builders, trade contractors, developers, design
professionals, kitchen and bathroom specialists, manufacturers and suppliers. The HIA has been
supporting the Australian home building industry for more than 60 years.
HIA Economics is Australia’s market leader in housing research and analysis. The team of
experienced economists provides HIA members, industry and media with a trusted source of
economic data, analysis, research, forecasts, and commentary relating to the Australian housing
industry’s conditions and trends.
HIA Economics has the best housing forecasting record in Australia over the last 15 years. Through
its consultancy arm – Australian Construction Insights (ACI) – the economics team offers a tailored
market research service, together with analysis and forecasts of Australia’s non-residential
construction markets.
Is Australia really the ‘lucky country’?
3
2- HOUSING ECONOMIC STATISTICS:
Starts:
- Single Family (detached)
- Multifamily (multi-units)
Percentages:
5.4%
5.4%
Numbers:
114,384
100,945
411.64
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) $bn (Sep 2015 qtr)
GDP Growth (annual Sep Qtr 2015)
GDP Per Capita (Yr to Sep 2015 qtr)
2.5%
0.8%
68,580
House Price Index capital cities (Yr to January 2016)
7.4%
572,500
Consumer Price Index
Unemployment (December)
Home Mortgage Interest Rate (discounted variable rate,
1.7%
5.8%
January 2016)
Home Ownership Rate (Yr to June 2014)
Population Growth/Net (annual growth, June 2015)
4.85%
66.70%
1.4%
317,100
Australia is also in an election year, while new home building
remains the kingmaker of the Australian economy
4
Australia's Economic Growth
Age Survey - Jan 2016
6.0
5.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2016
2016
Per cent
4.0
MYEFO
7.0
HIA as reported in the Age Survey
Source: ABS 5206; HIA Economics; The Age Economic Survey; MYEFO

The Australian economy has not had a recession since the early 1990’s!
New home construction is at record levels
5
Total Dwelling Starts – Australia
Source: ABS 8752
60,000
55,000
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
Seasonally Adjusted

Trend
Australia’s new home building sector defied global (& domestic) economic conditions and
surged to record highs in 2015.
Sep-15
Sep-14
Sep-13
Sep-12
Sep-11
Sep-10
Sep-09
Sep-08
Sep-07
Sep-06
Sep-05
Sep-04
Sep-03
Sep-02
Sep-01
Sep-00
Sep-99
Sep-98
Sep-97
Sep-96
25,000
Sep-95
Number
50,000
A slowdown is ahead, with heightened uncertainty around
the approaching downturn
6
Preliminary Dwelling Commencements Forecast by Dwelling Type
Source: HIA Economics
140
Forecast
113
105
106
107
101
102
80
60
95
65
55
56
50
48
48
113
111
100
90
114
106 107
96
93
86
72
60
97
95
67
62
62
48
39
40
20
Detached Houses

Multi-unit dwellings
The tide is now turning and economic and political developments are unfavourably timed.
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014 (a)
2013 (a)
2012 (a)
2011 (a)
2010 (a)
2009 (a)
2008 (a)
2007 (a)
2006 (a)
2005 (a)
2004 (a)
0
2003 (a)
Dwelling starts ('000)
120
115
Renovations activity has failed to fire up
7
Renovations Investment in Australia - Moving Annual Total
Source: ABS 5206
35,000
33,000
29,000
27,000
25,000
23,000
21,000
19,000
17,000

Why is it that renovations (remodeling) activity failed to follow new home building higher?
Sep-2015
Sep-2014
Sep-2013
Sep-2012
Sep-2011
Sep-2010
Sep-2009
Sep-2008
Sep-2007
Sep-2006
Sep-2005
Sep-2004
Sep-2003
Sep-2002
Sep-2001
Sep-2000
Sep-1999
Sep-1998
Sep-1997
Sep-1996
Sep-1995
Sep-1994
Sep-1993
15,000
Sep-1992
$ million (moving annual total)
31,000
THANK YOU FOR YOUT TIME
Dr Harley Dale
Chief Economist – HIA & ACI
IHA Secretariat