Transcript Vilnus Metropolitan Area

VILNIUS METROPOLITAN AREA
Donatas Burneika,
Institute of Human Geography and Demography, Lithuanian Social Research Centre
Vilnius, LITHUANIA
Main aim
The main aim of this presentation is to reveal general
trends of the development of Vilnius metropolitan area and
socio-economic factors determining its main trends
Main idea
The fast development of Vilnius city and its spread into the
vast urban region should inevitably make certain effect on
the development of the surrounding areas, which are being
commonly perceived as the least developed region in
Lithuania. The scale and some peculiarities of this impact
are under discussion. The positive and negative sides of
this impact are to be established.
Economic crisises and booms in Lithuania since 1991
15
10
5
0
% -5
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
-25
1994
GDP per capita
1993
-20
1992
GDP
1991
-15
2002
-10
Population decline in Lithuania in 2001 - 2011
Trends of the metropolization are expressed more by
shrinkage of smaller cities than by expansion of capital
city-region
Structure of Vilnius’ hinterland
Distribution of unregistered labour migrants to major cities in
2012 according to redistribution of residents’ income tax and
wage differences in major cities
Vilnius city core and the surrounding region – contrast area
The zone between Vilnius city core and the hinterland (zone of
sprawl of the city) can be characterized as a space of huge
contrasts in various fields:
Economical
Social
Ethnical
Political
Environmental
All these differences make impact on the conditions for city sprawl
to various directions. Complicates coordinated planning and
development.
However existence, functioning and growth of the city is the main
factor of development of the region. The most prosperous
Lithuanian city develops in the middle of the most problem region
It creates spaces, with different trends of development than the rest
of the area
Fast and extensive spread of Vilnius metropolitan area
in 1990 - 2011.
The city sprawl
Middle part of Vilnius metropolitan area
The impact of Vilnius on the economy of East Lithuania
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Inflow of rich people into the zone of suburbanization
Inflow of money into the zone of suburbanisation
Export of “socially excluded” ones to farther areas
Import of young population from all over the region
Export of money via residents’ income tax
Supply of jobs to the residents of the region
Market for locally produced goods (commuting zone)
Demand for services in peripheral parts via tourism
Etc...
Impact of Vilnius on the budgets of municipalities
Relative GDP per capita in 1996
Differences of growth rates of GVA per capita in
municipalities in 1996 - 2011
GDP per capita (thous LT)
60
50
40
Lithuania
30
Vilnius county
20
10
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
What are the main trends in
restructuring the regional economy
2004
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• The structure of
economy is fairly
stabile. Decline of
agriculture,
construction and rise of
traditional services is
evident. (bankruptcy of
What are the main trends in
restructuring the regional economy
• The development of
modern R&D industry,
IT services are being
mentioned as the
newest positive trends.
(fig. – latest trends of turnover
of IT sector in Lithuania and
Vilnius county)
1400000
1200000
1000000
800000
Lithuania
Vilnius county
600000
400000
200000
0
2009
2010
2011
2012
What factors of regional development were the most
important (exogenous, endogenous, structural, sociopolitical, others)?
• Most questioned experts stated that endogenous factors were
more important (e.g. – status of Capital city, demographic
structure, education, qualification).
• Foreign capital was not so important in Lithuania like in other
Baltic countries and majority of biggest companies of
Lithuania are located in Vilnius are of Lithuanian origine.
• However many positive recent trends are related to foreign
capital (like growing occupation in world wide service centres
of such companies like Barclays, Western Union) And city is a
primary destination for FDI in Lithuania.
• Many tend to forget export of services, which is important in
case of Vilnius
Export of goods of Lithuanian origin
from Lithuania and Vilnius
60000
50000
40000
LT
30000
Vilnius
20000
10000
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
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FDI in Vilnius 2008-2012
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
2008
2012
Has the productivity growth been related to the
increase of the innovative capacity of the region?
• Though there is a few statistical data, confirming or
denying these facts (for example 70% of all expenditure for
technological innovations in Lithuania have been made in
Vilnius county in 2010), majority agrees that such
relation is evident.
• However the argumentation of such conclusion is
quite uncertain….
Are social disparities and economic growth within the
region interlinked? And how? (lower level of
inequalities and exclusion / higher growth? or?)
• It is, though interlink is quite uncertain. Generally
situation in whole Lithuania confirms trend, that
economic recessions have very negative
consequences and inequality increases both
regionally and vertically… Fast economic growth do
not result in social wellbeing so fast.
• However, in the longer run The economic growth of
Vilnius, results in lesser social disparities in the
region, as city is important source of incomes both
for employees, business, municipalities and those
owning land in metropolitan area.
What were the most successful
regional/local policies?
• Questioned experts struggled mentioning concrete
local policies, while mostly agree that there were
actually no successful regional policies in the area.
• Proactive position of some mayors, promoting the
city as the best plays to live and work and attracting
investments (also using EU funds) is among those
mentioned.
• Successful renovation of certain areas of the city like
new modern centre of the city) were also
mentioned.
Has the external intervention been important
for development of the region?
• The opinion of experts differ a lot here. Everyone
agrees that this is a positive factor, but most tend to
say that not a decisive one.
• However the newest investments in R&D sector, IT
service centres and many other were made with the
support of EU ERDF help.
• Tourism (and shopping tourism) is very important
source of income in the peripheral EU city near the
border of the country with very limited supply of
many goods and services.
Conclusions
 Natural processes of depopulation of rural areas related to
continuation of delayed urbanisation will persist in Lithuania and in
surrounding countries. It will be making negative impact on local
population first of all by damaging their expectation and hopes but not
their incomes or living standards.
 The development of Vilnius and spread of its urban region will persist
and city will become more and more important factor of development
of the region. The consequences of this spread would depend of
successful coordination of such processes between the city and other
municipalities and wise regional planning. However almost no
cooperation and common planning and regulating of processes of
suburbanisation exists at present and there are no signs for this in the
nearest future.
Thank you for your attention!