Transcript - G2F2 2017

TransGraph
Research
Agriculture
Brands
Consulting
Metals
Energy
Technology
Dairy
Currency
Economy
Impact of Demonetization, Indian and Global economy
Paper by
Nagaraj Meda
MD, TransGraph Consulting Pvt Ltd
Impact of Demonetization
Sharp dip in PMIs clearly indicating impact of demonetization
TransGraph
Nikkei Manufacturing PMI
60
58
© TransGraph Consulting Pvt Ltd
50
48
Dec-16
Apr-16
Apr-16
Dec-16
Dec-15
Dec-15
Aug-16
Aug-15
Aug-15
Aug-16
Apr-15
Apr-15
Dec-14
Aug-14
Apr-14
Dec-13
Aug-13
Apr-13
Dec-12
Aug-12
Apr-12
Dec-11
Aug-11
46
Dec-14
Aug-14
Apr-14
Dec-13
Aug-13
Dec-12
Aug-12
Apr-12
Apr-13
Nikkei Services PMI
62
60
58
56
54
52
50
48
46
44
42
Dec-11
for two consecutive months with the negative
sentiments post demonetization with the
cash-driven sectors such as financial services,
hotels, restaurants, renting and business
activities suffering the most as consumers
curbed discretionary spending
52
Aug-11
– Even services sector remained in contraction
54
Apr-11
December as companies saw new work and
output dip due to cash crunch with average
delivery times also lengthening with
demonetization impact on transport sector
and the overall growth sentiments for OND
56
Apr-11
– Manufacturing activity has contracted in
Slide 4
Passenger car sales unaffected but commercial vehicles, 2W and 3W affected significantly by
cash crunch in Nov-Dec’16 – Indicating dampening of Rural demand
TransGraph
Indian auto sales growth (%YoY)
30%
20%
20%
10%
10%
0%
0%
-10%
-10%
-20%
Passenger cars
Commercial vehicles
-30%
Jun-16
Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Jun-16
Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Apr-16
Feb-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Commercial vehicles
Apr-15
Feb-15
Apr-14
Feb-14
Dec-13
Dec-16
Oct-16
Aug-16
Jun-16
Apr-16
Feb-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Apr-15
Feb-15
Dec-14
Oct-14
Aug-14
Jun-14
Apr-14
Feb-14
Indian auto sales growth (%YoY)
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
Dec-14
Passenger cars
-40%
Dec-13
-40%
Oct-14
-30%
Aug-14
-20%
Indian auto sales growth (%MoM)
40%
30%
Jun-14
40%
Indian auto sales growth (%MoM)
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
Three wheelers
Two wheelers
-40%
Three wheelers
Two wheelers
© TransGraph Consulting Pvt Ltd
Apr-16
Feb-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Apr-15
Feb-15
Dec-14
Oct-14
Aug-14
Jun-14
Apr-14
Feb-14
Dec-13
Dec-16
Oct-16
Aug-16
Jun-16
Apr-16
Feb-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Apr-15
Feb-15
Dec-14
Oct-14
Aug-14
Jun-14
Apr-14
Feb-14
Dec-13
-50%
Slide 5
Demonetization Impact on Oilseed and Edible oil Supply Chain
TransGraph
1.
2.
Farmer
Aggregator
Retailer
5.
Crusher/Refi
ner
Oil Marketer
Semi Wholesaler
7.
6.




Consumer (Retail, Institutional)

Supply Bottlenecks
© TransGraph Consulting Pvt Ltd
Commodity
Exchange
4.
3.
Wholesaler
Trader
/Stockiest
APMC/Mandi

8.
Imports/Port Stocks
1,2,3: Arrivals have declined significantly
4. Traders selling to plants, however volumes are low
5 Crushing volume low as : Not enough cash for Logistics,
daily wages. Plants that buy oilseeds in cash shut their
operation
6. 7. Retail sales plummeted as consumers buying on
need basis and refrained from monthly stocking, , monthly
budget of families diverted to basic needs
Dispatches will fall on lower refining and stock built up in
supply chain over logistics issue
Logistics impact will be throughout the supply chain
Slide 6
OND Arrivals are low due to demonetization.
TransGraph
Monthly Arrivals Against Season Production of
Soybean
21%
25%
%age Monthly GN arrival of Yearly
Production
38%
40%
35%
38%
33%
20%
17%
35%
30%
15%
13%
12%
23%
25%
10%
10%
20%
12%
9%
8%
7%
15%
10%
5%
5%
0%
33%
38%
38%
35%
23%
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
0%
Oct
2014-15
Nov
2015-16
Dec
2016-17
Despite higher production , arrivals in OND period stood lower due to poor farmer selling owing to cash squeeze
with the traders owing to demonetization
© TransGraph Consulting Pvt Ltd
Slide 7
Soy Crush is lower in Nov & Dec 16 in terms of % of production
Monthly Crush Against Season Production of
Soybean
10%
8.5%
7.9% 7.9%
8%
7.4%
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
6.8%
5.8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Oct
2.5
Nov
2015-16
2016-17
Soybean Monthly Crush (Lakh Tons)
7.50
5.81 5.50
Oct

2
1.5
1
0.5
7.00
5.44
4.69
Dec
Crush Seasonality
TransGraph
Nov
2015-16
2016-17
Dec
Demonetization has impacted crush gradually
since availability of bean declined post
demonetization. Thus in Oct 8.5% of bean
produced was crushed which declined to 6.8%
which ideally should be high in Nov and
should be close to 12-14% of the crop
0
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
© TransGraph Consulting Pvt Ltd
Feb
Mar
Apr May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Slide 8
% ONDJ arrival in total production.. Decline in arrivals is seen in case of Y-o-Y higher production
TransGraph
Corriander
Paddy - Rice
40%
34%
31%
28%
30%
59%
65%
33%
55%
45%
35%
20%
25%
10%
15%
13%
2014/15
2015/16
17%
5%
0%
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
Cotton
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
12%
24%
2013/14
© TransGraph Consulting Pvt Ltd
25%
2014/15
-5%
2013/14

22%
2015/16
20%
2016/17
Similar situation of lower arrivals is witnessed
in both paddy and cotton. However, in spices
like coriander, the impact is not seen due to
lower crop size
2016/17
Slide 9
Arrival pace across major commodities…
TransGraph
All Indian cotton arrivals (Lakh Tons)
all Indian Paddy arrivals(Lakh tons)
15
150
10
100
5
50
0
0
October
2013/14
60
Noverber
2014/15
December
2015/16
January
2016/17
October
Noverber
December
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
January
2016/17
All over India Corriander Arrivals(Thd. Tons)

50
40
30
2016 OND period witnessed lowest arrivals in
the last 4 years in both cotton and paddy crops
20
10
0
October
2013/14
© TransGraph Consulting Pvt Ltd
Noverber
2014/15
December
2015/16
January
2016/17
Slide 10
Cash crunch resulted in fall in demand of edible oils..
TransGraph
No of Households (Crores )
24.84
Indian Port S&D month wise ( Thd tons)
Before demonetization
Nov
Household Consumption(Lakh Ton)
Non-Household Consumption (Lakh Ton)
After Post-Demonetization
House
hold
1.00
0.80
Net decline in demand (Lakh Ton)
2.48
1.99
Estimated %age decline
Jan
13.14 12.72 12.41 Opening 770
stocks
5.63 5.45 5.32
Imports 1249
Estimated Per household decline (KG)
Actual Demand (Lakh Ton)
NonHouse
hold
Dec
10.66 10.73 11.29
19.23 18.35
7.50% LY stocks
%
%
1.08
1.00
0.40
Actual Demand (Lakh Ton)
4.55
4.45
4.92
3.56
2.99
1.52
% of demand rationing
M-O-M change in port dispatches (lakh ton)
© TransGraph Consulting Pvt Ltd
stocks
18.97 16.46
8.57%
%
%
-1.05 -0.72 0.68

755
Oct'1 Nov'16 Dec'1
Feb'17
Jan'17 P
6
P
6
P
860
705
655
695
770
1377 1156
1156
1174 1278
1108
1272 1311
1206
1134 1202
1134
755
860
705
655
695
771
744
925
780
1020
1020
1110 1055
910
0.45 Dispatche 1264
s
1.12 Closing
Net decline in demand (Lakh Ton)
Actual demand decline ( lakh ton)
Aug'16 Sep'16
Due to cash crunch, Nov & Dec’16 are the
most affected months in terms of edible oil
consumption
Slide 11
Fall in Vegetable prices @ benchmark markets since De-monetization in Nov’16
TransGraph
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Oct-16
Medium size onion price at Madanpalli
, A.P
Local Potato price at Agra, UP
1500
1000
Oct-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
500
0
Oct-16
Modal Price (Rs/Quintal)
Oct-16
Oct-16 Nov-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Dec-16
Jan-17
Modal Price (Rs/Quintal)
Onion price at Ahmednagar, Maharashtra
1500
1000
500
0
Oct-16
Oct-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Dec-16
Modal Price (Rs/Quintal)
© TransGraph Consulting Pvt Ltd
Slide 12
Drastic fall in Ncdex Futures traded Volumes amidst IT scrutiny measures…
TransGraph
NCDEX Soybean
NCDEX Soyoil
6000000
1500000
4000000
1000000
2000000
500000
0
Oct'16
Total Volume
Nov'16
Dec'16
Jan'17
Total Traded Value
Total OI
0
Oct'16
Total Volume
Nov'16
Dec'16
Total Traded Value
Jan'17
Total OI
NCDEX All Commodities
NCDEX RM Seed
5000000
1500000
4000000
1000000
3000000
500000
2000000
1000000
0
Oct'16
Total Volume
© TransGraph Consulting Pvt Ltd
Nov'16
Dec'16
Jan'17
Total Traded Value
Total OI
0
Oct'16
Nov'16
Dec'16
Jan'17
Value in Lacs.
Slide 13
Indian economy
14
With dip in inflation post demonetization, further rate cut of 0.5% is likely; Industry credit is
severely constrained
TransGraph
80%
25%
12%
60%
20%
10%
40%
8%
20%
6%
0%
4%
-20%
© TransGraph Consulting Pvt Ltd
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
Oct-16
Nov-16
Sep-16
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
May-16
Apr-16
Personal Loans
Mar-16
Feb-16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
Services
Wholesale Price Inflation (%YoY)
WPI inflation (%)
WPI Food inflation (%)
Dec-16
Nov-16
Oct-16
Sep-16
Inflation (%)
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
May-16
Food inflation (%)
Apr-16
Mar-16
Feb-16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
Oct-15
Energy inflation (%)
Industry
Oct-15
-5%
Sep-15
-60%
Jul-15
0%
Aug-15
-40%
Consumer Price Inflation(YoY)
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
5%
Nov-16
Oct-16
Sep-16
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
May-16
Apr-16
Mar-16
Feb-16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Jul-15
Jun-15
0%
10%
Jun-15
Non-food Credit
15%
Apr-15
Gross Bank Credit
Food Credit
2%
Sector wise credit growth YoY with in non food sector
May-15
Indian commercial banks credit growth YoY
14%
Slide 15
Impact of demonetization on Indian economy; Growth likely to be lower in industry
sector
TransGraph
Growth forecasts for OND 2016
10%
7.49%
8%
6.29% 6.46%
6%
5.85%
10.05%
10%
6%
4%
2%
0%
0%
-2%
Agriculture
Industry
Pessimistic
Services
GDP
4.01%
3.21% 3.53%
7.39%
6%
7.31%
5.96%
5.70% 5.82%
Pessimistic
-1.78%
Industry
Services
Optimistic
GDP
– Cash driven transport and retail
8.92%
8%
-4%
Agriculture
Optimistic
Growth Forecasts for 2016-17
4%
2.45%
2%
2.02% 2.02%
10%
7.39%
7.05%
8%
5.69%
4%
2%
Growth forecasts for JFM 2017
12%
9.01%
business to witness more impact in
the short term
2.34%
1.22%
– FMCG business growth to slow down
0%
Agriculture
Industry
Pessimistic
© TransGraph Consulting Pvt Ltd
Services
GDP
in JFM as well
Optimistic
Slide 16
Demonetization to impact growth in FY’17
TransGraph
India economic Growth
7.3%
9.2%
6.6% 7.1%
7.2% 7.2%
8.9%
8.5%
7.6%
7.6% 7.2%
7.5%
7.3%
7.0%
6.5%
5.8%
5.2%
4.2%
2.3%
1.8%
1.2%
2013-14
2014-15
GVA
200%
2015-16
Net taxes
2016-17p
GDP
2013-14
Agriculture
2014-15
2015-16
Industry
Service
2016-17p
2017-18p
India GDP value add ('000 INR crore)
1000
900
800
800
150%
29.7%
17.5%
52.9%
57.1%
50%
1.0%
-3.7%
2.9%
22.1%
48.3%
17.6%
0.7%
GFCE
-50%
2012-13
© TransGraph Consulting Pvt Ltd
PFCE
2013-14
413
600
67.4%
100%
0%
-0.2%
2017-18p
Contribution to GDP growth as % GDP increase
9.0%
8.9%
8.8%
8.2%
11.9%
11.0%
6.3%
India sectoral GVA Growth
9.4%
GFCF
400
16.6%
200
54.7%
3.1%
-7.1%
260
5
-18
132
107
344
350
4
125
437
24
-57
-200
Net exports
2014-15
0
146
700
21
158
2015-16
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2012-13
GFCE
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
PFCE
GFCF
Net exports
GDP
GFCE – Government Final consumption expenditure; PFCE – Private Final consumption expenditure
GFCF – Gross fixed capital formation
Slide 17
Indian Fiscal budget targeted at 3.2% in 2017-18
TransGraph
Net Tax revenue to centre
Non-tax revenue
Total revenue receipts
Recoveries of loans
Other receipts
Total capital receipts
Total receipts
Scheme expenditure on revenue account
Scheme expenditure on capital account
Total scheme expenditure
Expenditure other than schemes
Total expenditure
Fiscal deficit
GDP
Fiscal deficit (% of GDP)
201516
2016 – 17
RE
2017-18
BE
2016-17
growth
2017-18
growth
9.4
2.5
12.0
0.0
0.4
0.4
12.4
5.5
1.8
7.3
10.7
17.9
5.5
135.7
4.06%
10.9
3.3
14.2
0.1
0.5
0.6
14.8
6.3
2.4
8.7
11.4
20.1
5.3
151.2
3.53%
12.3
2.9
15.2
0.1
0.7
0.8
16.0
6.7
2.7
9.5
12.0
21.5
5.5
169.3
3.23%
15.4%
33.2%
19.1%
431.5%
8.0%
27.9%
19.4%
15.7%
32.8%
20.0%
7.4%
12.5%
12.7%
-13.7%
6.5%
7.8%
59.3%
49.2%
8.1%
6.7%
13.7%
8.6%
5.0%
6.6%
Source: Union Budget 2017-18, INR Lakh Crore
© TransGraph Consulting Pvt Ltd
Slide 18
Key Sector allocations in Union budget
TransGraph
Sector
3s
2016-17
2017-18
1 Agriculture and Allied sectors
0.53
0.59
11.06%
2 Rural Development
1.15
1.29
11.84%
3 Infrastructure
3.59
3.96
10.46%
2.17
2.41
11.29%
1.76
1.95
10.92%
of which Transport
4 Social sectors
% change
4a
Education and Health
1.15
1.30
13.42%
4b
Social sectors with welfare orientation
0.61
0.65
6.25%
5 Employment Generation, Skill and Livelihood
0.15
0.17
16.16%
6 Scientific Ministries
0.34
0.37
8.95%
7.52
8.34
10.86%
Total
Source: Union Budget 2017-18, INR Lakh Crore
© TransGraph Consulting Pvt Ltd
Slide 19
India Balance of Payments indicating further build in forex reserves
TransGraph
India Balance of Payments (USD Bn)
Item
2012 – 13 2013 – 14 2014 – 15 2015 – 16
2016 – 17p
2017 – 2018p
Current Account
Merchandise trade balance
-195.7
-147.6
-144.2
-130.1
-108.0
-129.0
Invisibles
107.5
115.2
116.2
107.9
100.0
109.0
Total Current Account
-88.2
-32.4
-27.9
-22.2
-8.0
-20.0
CAD as % of GDP
-5.2%
-2.0%
-1.6%
-1.3%
-0.4%
-1.0%
Capital Account
FII
34.7
8.7
40.9
-4.1
6.0
9.0
FDI
22.4
24.3
32.6
36.0
47.0
36.0/51.0
Others*
42.6
22.4
16.4
9.2
-16.0
10.0
Total Capital Account
99.7
55.4
90.0
41.1
37.0
55.0/70.0
Balance of Payments
14.2
22.1
61.4
17.9
29.0
35.0/50.0
*Note: Others include net commercial borrowings, short term loans, banking capital and other capitals
© TransGraph Consulting Pvt Ltd
Slide 20
Global economy
21
Stimulus support remains intact for treasuries and commodities
–
TransGraph
Money flow shifting from treasuries to commodities
Money flow - Treasuries vs. commodities (USD bn)
500
–
–
2.6 trillion USD in 2016 and 2 trillion USD in 2017;
highest stimulus since last 3 years
400
Net increase in assets by all central banks for first time
since 2012 likely to support commodity markets
200
US Tapering 2013 - Strong
US treasury demand
US Treasury
CME commodities
300
100
0
11-Apr-00
Change in Central bank assets
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.7
0.7
0.4
0.5
1.3
0.3
0.0
0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.6
0.3
0.2
0.0
0.9
0.3
0.5
0.5
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.0
0.0
1.1
-0.8
0.5
0.4
0.7
0.0
-0.6
1.2
0.0
0.2
0.6
0.9
0.3
2009
2010
US Fed (USD Tn)
© TransGraph Consulting Pvt Ltd
2011
2012
BoJ (USD Tn)
2013
2014
ECB (USD Tn)
11-Apr-10
11-Aug-13
11-Dec-16
Central bank assets
2015 2016e 2017p
PBoC (USD Tn)
5.4
15
10
3.0
5
0
-1.0
2008
11-Dec-06
20
0.9
0.2
0.4
0.5
-0.5
11-Aug-03
25
Net asset size increase
by all central banks,
first time since 2012
Improving
commodity activity
Stimulus driven market
between 2009-13
2.3
2.2
1.0
0.9
2.9
1.4
2.2
3.3
3.9
2.7
1.3
2.2
2.7
1.6
2.4
4.5
4.7
3.5
3.9
1.8
2.9
1.9
2.9
5.6
5.2
5.5
4.9
3.1
2.1
2.6
2.5
3.0
3.2
4.4
5.3
4.0
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.7
3.9
4.5
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017p
US Fed (USD Tn)
BoJ (USD Tn)
ECB (USD Tn)
PBoC (USD Tn)
Slide 22
Pick up in inflation in advanced economies to lead to change in respective central banks’
stance
TransGraph
US Inflation (%)
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
-0.5%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
1.5%
Euro Area consumer inflation (%)
All items
1.0%
-20%
0%
-2%
0.0%
-4%
-6%
-0.5%
-8%
-25%
-1.0%
Total
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
Food and beverages
Japan inflation (%)
2%
0.5%
-10%
-15%
Energy
4%
-10%
Energy
– Surge in crude prices and low base effect led
to sharp increase in inflation in the recent
months
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
-0.5%
-1.0%
© TransGraph Consulting Pvt Ltd
– Although
inflation remain below the
respective central banks’ target levels, sharp
surge may induce slight change in stance
regarding the monetary guidance for 2017
Slide 23
Global growth – Chinese recovery underway, Euro area and India to sustain
current growth
TransGraph
World Economic Outlook
Region
2015e 2016e 2017p
2015
World
3.20
3.10
2.80
78065
Advanced economies
2.08
1.80
1.60
46566
Emerging markets
4.02
4.80
4.50
31500
US
2.60
1.70
1.80
16397
Euro Area
2.04
1.70
1.80
13555
Japan
0.54
0.50 -0.60
5674
China
6.90
6.72
6.50
8862
India
7.56
7.10
7.60
2367
Source : IMF, Note: All data in % Change Y/Y, India GDP in FY terms
–
–
–
–
Value (USD Bn)
2016
2017
growth
growth
2420
2254
838
758
1512
1486
279
300
230
248
28
-34
595
615
173
193
Consolidation in Euro Area, Political Risk weights on Euro high
Stabilization in China and India (Demonetization impact to be short-lived)
Tax cuts and spending increase is likely to constrain US growth in 2017
Negative real interest rates and debt ceiling to put pressure on US dollar.
© TransGraph Consulting Pvt Ltd
Slide 24
Dollar Index likely to trade in the range of 103 – 96 in the coming 4-6 months
TransGraph
© TransGraph Consulting Pvt Ltd
Slide 25
Euro to trade positive towards 1.15
TransGraph
© TransGraph Consulting Pvt Ltd
Slide 26
USDINR outlook
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© TransGraph Consulting Pvt Ltd
Slide 27
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