Transcript April 2016 - industriAll

Economic Overview
April 2016
Outline
(1) Total Economy
(2) Industry
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Production
Productivity
Employment, working hours
Inflation, output prices
Wages, unit labour cost
Trade balance
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Total Economy
 Slight improvement
in economic growth
in the EU in the last
two years after a
“double-dip”
recession.
 According to EU
forecasts, this trend
will continue in
2016 and 2017.
 Source: AMECO
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 The economic
growth is forecast
to pick up in 2016.
 At least 1.3% GDP
increase in every
country but two if
the predictions
materialise.
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 Increased GDP
volumes are
expected in all
European
countries in 2017.
 At least 0.9 % in
every country, but
these forecasts
might prove too
optimistic.
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 The annual
production value
was just above the
pre-crisis level in
the EU in 2015.
 Spain had lost
3.3%, Italy 8.3%
and Greece 26.0%.
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 Big differences
with respect to
GDP per capita in
Europe.
 Four countries
below 8 000 euros
per year. The EU
average was
27 400 euros in
2014.
 No data for Turkey.
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 A bit more
equality when
differences in
purchasing power
are eliminated.
 No data for Turkey.
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Industry (NACE
B-E) accounted
for 18.9% of
total value
added in 2014.
B= Mining, oil and gas
C= Manufacturing
D= Energy supply
E = Water supply
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 The total
employment in EU28 was reduced by
6.8 million from
2008 to 2013.
 According to
forecasts, we will
see the level of
2008 again this year
(231.2 million).
Source: AMECO
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 The percentage
growth for EU-28
will be 1.0% in
2016 according to
the latest forecast
from the
Commission
(February 2016).
 The highest
growth in total
employment is
expected in Turkey
(2.8%).
Source: AMECO
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 The forecast for
2017 is 0.9% in
EU-28.
 Again we find the
highest growth
figures for Turkey.
 Spain is recovering
losses from
previous years.
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 Employment still
below pre-crisis
levels in the EA19, EU-28
marginally above.
 Greece lost 16.2%
of its employment
during these nine
years, Latvia
17.2%.
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 Industry (NACE BE) accounted for
15.6% of
employment in
the EU-28 last
year.
B= Mining, oil and gas
C= Manufacturing
D= Energy supply
E = Water supply
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 Big differences
between the
countries.
 The average
working hours are
longest in Poland
(not much parttime work).
 No data for Turkey, Norway,
Switzerland and some
others.
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 The average
number of yearly
working hours
lower than in
2007 in most
countries.
 No data for Turkey, Norway,
Switzerland and some
others.
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 9.4%
unemployment in
EU-28 last year.
 Big differences
between the
countries.
 Spain and Greece
both over 22%.
 No data for Switzerland.
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 Unprecedentedly
high levels of
unemployed people
under 25 years.
 Greece still over
50%. Only three
countries below
10%.
 No data for
Switzerland.
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 4.9% growth in
productivity in the
EU since 2007.
 Nine countries
above 10%.
Highest increases
in new EU
Member States,
Ireland and Spain.
 No data for Turkey.
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 Nominal wage
increases have
exceeded real
labour
productivity
growth in all
countries except
Greece, Ireland
and Portugal since
2007.
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 Real unit labour
cost has fallen in
15 countries since
2007, meaning
that the wage
share of GDP has
gone down and
the capital share
has grown.
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 Germany had a
surplus in its
foreign trade of
219.8 billion euros
last year.
 France and UK had
deficits of 211.1
million between
them.
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 The Netherlands
exported goods
and services
worth 180.9
billion euros more
than it imported
from other EU
member states
last year.
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 Germany has the
highest trade
surplus also with
countries outside
the EU.
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Industry
 EU average 19.1%
when mining,
petroleum
production and
energy supply are
included.
 Norway on top
because of big oil
and gas sector.
 No data for Turkey.
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 Manufacturing
sector has
greatest relative
significance in the
Czech Republic,
Hungary, Slovenia
and Germany.
 The EU average is
15.5%.
 No data for Turkey.
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 Industrial
production in the
EU-28 seems to be
growing and
regaining some of
the previous losses.
 Source: Eurostat, Short-term
business statistics.
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 Most positive
developments in
new EU member
states and Ireland.
 Stagnation in
Germany.
Reduction in EU and
EA. Four countries
have lost more than
20%.
 No data for Switzerland.
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 Biggest reduction
in the mining
sector and
clothes’
production sector
since 2007.
 Five subsectors
have higher
volumes that
before crisis,
pharma plus
28.3%.
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 Industrial
employment in
the EU was 3.8
million lower in
2014 than in 2008.
 The current level
is almost as high
as in 2010.
 Slight increase in
2014.
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 Germany has over
8 million jobs in
industry.
 8 countries have
more than one
million, also
Romania and the
Czech Republic.
Poland is now
number 3.
 No data for Turkey.
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 Almost all countries
in the red. Industrial
employment heavily
under pressure.
Germany only
positive exception.
Reduction in Spain
close to 30%. Average
drop in EU and EA
higher than 10%.
 No data for Turkey,
Switzerland, Norway and
some others.
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 All sectors are in
the red but MET
industries, energy
supply and
pharmaceuticals
have done better
than the rest.
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 Increase in seven
countries, but not
very dramatic.
 No data for Turkey,
Switzerland, Norway and
some others.
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 In EU real labour
productivity per
hour in the
industry has gone
slightly up since
the onset of the
crisis. Increase in
Romania: 67.3%.
 No data for Turkey,
Switzerland, Norway and
some others.
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 Big variations with
respect to wages
per employed
person (total gross
wages divided by
number of
employees).
 No data for Turkey,
Switzerland and some
others.
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 The lowest
average gross
wages in industry
are just over 3
euros per hour.
 No data for Norway, Turkey,
Switzerland and some
others.
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 Wage increases
highest in the East
and South East
since the crisis.
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 Low inflation rates
in most countries
since the onset of
the crisis.
 Highest growth in
Turkey and Iceland.
 EU average only
15.4% in nine years.
Even lower in the
euro zone.
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 Exceptionally low
inflation in 2015.
 0.0% in EU and EA
 Turkey (not in
chart) had 7.7%.
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 Inflation in the EU
is forecast to pick
up again.
 Still far from ECB
target of close to
2.0%.
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 Growth in most
countries, but in
Cyprus, the UK
and Luxembourg
real wages per
hour in industry
have actually
fallen since the
crisis began.
 No data for Norway,
Switzerland and some
others.
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 Gross wages and
salaries have
increased faster
than production in
almost all
European
countries since
2007.
 The average
increase in EU-28
was 18.9%.
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 The picture is
diverse.
 Germany, Italy,
France and Spain
are among the
countries with
increased RULC in
the industry since
2007.
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 Industrial
companies have
increased their
producer prices in
most countries
since 2007. But
reductions in most
countries since
2012.
 No data for Portugal, Turkey,
Switzerland or Norway.
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