Transcript Making hunger history

Declaration of Conflict of Interest
I,
Allan Davison
declare that in the past 3 years:
I have received manufacturer funding from the following companies*:
No
I have done consulting work for the following companies*:
No
I have done speaking engagements for the following companies*:
None
I or my family hold individual shares in the following*:
None
*pharmaceutical or medical/dental equipment
1
Making hunger history?
Where are we?
Much better as a result of MDGs, but in
2015 hunger won’t yet be history
What’s working, what’s not?
We now know what works. 5-10 nations will
keep pledges. None will forgo trade rules
that favour rich at the expense of poor
Where are we going?
Hunger on a global scale will disappear,
in 2 or 3 more 15y plans. New initiatives 2
Allan Davison
Make hunger history?
[email protected]
please disturb!
www.sfu.ca/global-nutrition
3
3
Aid isn’t working
Profit motive hasn’t
Trade for profit instead
worked - aid is needed
Trillions wasted! - 1 b still starving
Population outstrips food supply
Most aid corrupt dictators
MDGs won’t be achieved
Never promised 0.7%
V little is wasted
Malthus is wrong
Corrupt multinationals
Broken promises
You did so!
We give more than anyone! Yeah – ½ what EU gives!
“Trade not aid”
4
2008 recession
Trade barriers. Fair trade & aid
“They” didn’t cause it
World GDP $PPP per
cap (est) 1500-2100
$10,000
5
Manifest destiny of
world - wealth
China +
India 2040?
USA + West
Europe
since 1945
Western
Europe
to 1945
China + India
to 1850
$5,000
India to 1500
$0
1500
2000
http://ers.usda.gov/Data/Macroeconomics/
Number of malnourished world-wide
See also: WHO, UN, WB, USDA, CIA, OECD, IFPRI
1000
UNICEF 2009
Millions under-nourished
(FAO kcal / household)
900
800
kcal per household
surveyed
water-carrier
700
600
500
FAO data
400
300
200
http://www.unicef.org/media/files
/Tracking_Progress_on_Child_a
nd_Maternal_Nutrition_EN_1103
09.pdf
100
0
1970
6
1980
1990
2000
2010
33%
World
% undernourished
22%
17%
same data
15
1970
14%
1980
1990
2000
2010
7
Number fed & under-nourished worldwide
Prediction
millions
8000
Target
Fed
Malnourished
6000
4000
2000
33%
14%
11%
6%
0
1970
8
2010
2015 target 2030 FAO
est
8
Percentage stunted
http://www.unicef.org/media/files/Tracking_Progress
_on_Child_and_Maternal_Nutrition_EN_110309.pdf
60%
http://ije.oxfordjournals.org/content/32/4/518.full.pdf
Africa
40%
Asia
Latin
Am
20%
1980 & every 5 years
Last 2 or 3 points are projections
9
}
Paying for total strangers to eat?
Not us, not if it
goes to corrupt
dictators”
10
1
“Phantom aid”, the wasted 47%
“Development
aid”, not spent
on poverty or
development
Refers to
ODA, not
MDGs
Clawed back
by unfair trade
Emergency aid
Debt relief
Refugee, Tied
to benefit rich
http://www.globalissues.org/articl
e/35/foreign-aid-developmentassistance#GovernmentsCutting
BackonPromisedResponsibilities
11
Corrupt heads of state: Rich...
Accept personal & campaign “contributions”
peddling influence. Could stop bribery at
home & abroad by abolishing secret a/c
wikipedia
Swiss
Air
600
Lockheed
400
200
0
-200
... & Poor
Accept “bribes” to give
trade concessions that
impoverish their people
-400
-600
12
We know what works
•Transparent & accountable , open bids
•Partnerships not paternalism
•Goals, objectives, timed milestones
•Strategies revised annually by both partners
•Externally monitored. No political pressure
•Sustainable emphasis on poverty, agriculture
•Serves recipient needs, not donor / ideology
•Firm long-term commitments: MV, Grameen
13
Unrealistic? Let’s see ...
Beyond MDGs: amazing changes
•The Millennium Village project
•Grameen Family of social enterprises
•Billionaire philanthropists & foundations
•Instant spread of innovations: agric, educ, &c
•Passionate & influential voices for change
•Scientists & students bring energy to future
14
www.sfu.ca/global-nutrition
Passionate renegades
15
15
The End
[email protected]
www.sfu.ca/global-hunger
[email protected]
www.sfu.ca/global-hunger
16
16
4.00
% GDP/cap pa for poor nations cf % for rich
3.50
USDA data
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
2002
2008 GDP/capita:
Developing countries 3.93%
Developed countries -0.03
Advantage = 3.96%
2004
2006
year
2008
17
Number stunted (Unicef Data)
millions
http://www.unicef.org/media/files/Tracking_Progress
_on_Child_and_Maternal_Nutrition_EN_110309.pdf
http://ije.oxfordjournals.org/content/32/4/518.full.pdf
http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsh
eets/fs290/en/index.html
http://www.fao.org/mdg/en/
http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/rep
orts.shtml#mdgs
Most MDGs will be mostly met worldwide
18
http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsh
eets/fs290/en/index.html
http://www.fao.org/mdg/en/
http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/rep
orts.shtml#mdgs
19
Emergency aid isn’t intended for development
“Phantom aid”: 47% is “wasted”
http://www.globalissues.org/article/35/foreign-aid-development-assistance#GovernmentsCuttingBackonPromisedResponsibilities
• Evaporating aid - promises … broken as soon
as cameras turn elsewhere
• $ flow benefits the rich nations – tilted trade
• Aid with strings attached, contingent on UN
votes, WB loans, unfair trade
• Dumped food surplus   local farm economy
• Money given by corrupt rich people to
UK banks in
“corrupt dictators”
Nigerian
20
Paul Collier: The bottom billion
corruption
20