Transcript Black/African - Newcastle Chamber of Commerce and Industry

South African Chamber of Commerce and
Industry
South African Labour Environment:
Quo Vadis?
Presentation prepared by Moeletsi Mbeki
Johannesburg
Thursday 23rd April 2015
1
Triple Malaise Facing
South Africa:
• Slow growing or stagnant economy
• Single party dominance
• Rampant public sector
2
Stagnant Economy
Results of low growth
•
Low labour participation in the economy especially among
blacks
•
High unemployment, a result of destruction of peasant
agriculture
•
High levels of inequality
•
Low social cohesion especially among blacks
•
High levels of popular discontent
•
Fertile ground for demagogy
3
Unemployment Rate
45%
40%
35%
Black/African
40.6%
30%
25%
Coloured
28.5%
20%
15%
Indian/Asian
16.0%
10%
White
5%
0%
Source: Statistics South Africa – third quarter 2013
7.9%
4
Composition of South Africa’s
GDP
Source: Thompson Reuters Datastream: EIU – Financial Times 15 June 2011
Source: South African Reserve Bank
5
Consumer spending as percentage of GDP
Developed Countries
• .
6
Compliments Financial Mail
Employment trends in South Africa
and elsewhere,1980-2006
150
Middle income
countries
140
Ireland
Netherlands
130
Netherlands
South Africa
180
170
160
120
Ireland
150
140
110
European Union
130
120
100
110
South Africa
90
100
90
80
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
Source: World Development Indicators as
reported in the WEFA data set
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1980
80
Source: Employment (1980=100) from
International Labour Statistics (ILO)
7
Source Eddels Shoe Factory
8
Production and Employment Trends in
South African Footwear Industry
Year
Local Production
Imports
Employment
2006
20.35%
79.65%
10 100
2005
16.95%
83.05%
1995
47.91%
52.09%
1985
78%
22%
23 600 (1997)
Source: South African Footwear and Leather Industries Association
9
Single party dominance
Consequences
•
Declining popular participation in electoral arena
•
Lack of accountability of state system
•
Transfer of resource to politically powerful rather than to the
most productive
•
High levels of corruption especially within the public sector
•
Poor quality of delivery of social services for the low income
groups
•
High levels of conflicts and dissatisfaction
10
Working status of ANC and DA voters – 2009 election
ANC voters
(Ipsos)
DA voters
11
Education status of ANC and DA voters – 2009
(Ipsos)
Level of
education
All ANC
supporters %
No education
7
-
Up to some high
School
62
29
Matric
23
38
8
32
Tertiary education/
Other
All DA
supporters
%
12
Education levels of ANC and DA voters (%) - 2009
13
Source: Ipsos Markinor
Rampant public sector
•
Transfer of resources from productive sector to the public
sector
•
Creation of sheltered employment for political supporters
•
Low levels of efficiency in service delivery to the poor
•
Debt ridden, parasitic and subsidy dependant parastatals
• Under performance leading to declining confidence in
legitimacy of the state
• Corruption ridden
14
15
16
Employment by industry
Source: Stats SA
17
Employment by industry
Source: Stats SA
18
South African Labour
Trade Unions
•
Organised labour had allied itself to liberation parties in struggle
against apartheid with the hope that the new democratic
government would have greater control over the private sector.
This expectation has not been met in stead the ruling party has
grown the public sector but there are political allegiance
conditions attached to workers benefitting from this
arrangement. This has led to a growing rift to workers employed
in the private sector from those in the public sector.
•
Globalisation has increased competition on South Africa’s
private sector. This has heightened the level of insecurity
amongst workers in the this sector. This accounts for growing
unpredictability in the behaviour of organised labour.
19