Transcript Voting Behaviour - Welcome to the Education Forum

Voting Behaviour
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Introduction
• Sociologists argue that voting behaviour is
affected by many factors
• Long term factors e.g. gender, ethnicity,
geography, age and class do not change
significantly over time.
• Short term factors e.g. leadership, issues
and the media can influence the outcome
of a particular election.
Long Term Factors
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Social Class
Age
Gender
Ethnicity
Geography
Social Class - Categories
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A Higher Managerial
B Lower Managerial
C1 Skilled Supervisors
C2 Skilled Manual
D Unskilled manual/Manual
E Unemployed/Poor
Social Class – Traditional View
• ‘Class is the basis of British party politics’(Pulzer)
• Most people vote according to their social class.
• Working class vote Labour (C2/DE), middle and upper
class vote Conservative (A/B/C1).
• Up until the early 1970s roughly two-thirds of the
electorate voted according to their social class. Strong
class alignment and partisan alignment to distinctly
ideological parties
• Deviant voters a minority – e.g., deferential working
class Tories
Social Class - Dealignment
• Since 1979 there has been a decline in the number
of people voting according to their natural class –
known as ‘dealignment’.
• Supported by Ivor Crewe. He argued there was an
‘old’ and ‘new’ working class. The new working
class benefited from Conservative policies such as
the right to buy council houses.
• The new working class were aspirational property
owners located in the south east – their growth led
to 1983 election defeat for Labour – where they
presented a left wing socialist manifesto and were
roundly defeated
Social Class - Dealignment
• Anthony Heath and others challenged this.
• Heath argued that the decline in the working class
voting for Labour was due to a reduction in the size of
the traditional working class.
• He also argued variations in class and party support
were due to the circumstances of each election e.g.
problems in the economy.
Social Class – 2005-10 Elections
• There has been a decline in Conservative support among AB voters
since 1992 but AB voters are still more likely to vote Conservative
• In 2005 37% of AB voters voted Conservatives compared to 28%
who voted Labour.
• In the last three elections Labour support among C2/DE voters has
remained relatively stable. They have also increased their support
among C1 voters.
• In 2005 Labour had greater support among C2/DE voters than the
Conservatives.
• In 2010 a large percentage of AB voters returned to the
conservatives – C1’s and C2’s in south east also voted Conservative
– New Labour lost ‘the middle ground’
Conclusion
• Although the influence of social class is
changing and probably declining…….it is
still the most powerful of all the long term
factors in determining which party people
vote for in an election.
• The 2 biggest parties appear to have a
base of core support based on social class
below which they tend not to fall
Age
• Younger voters and first time voters are more likely
to vote Labour.
• However the 18-22 age group are more likely to
switch their support from one party to another.
• Older people are more likely to vote Conservatives –
as people become older their view and beliefs often
become more ‘conservative’.
• Older people also perhaps more likely to own
property
• With the ageing population appealing to the ‘grey
vote’ will become increasingly important
Gender
• Between 1979-1992 more women voted for the
Conservatives than any other party.
• In the last three elections there have been no
major gender differences in voting.
• In 2005 34% of men and 38% of women voted
Labour.
• The increase in female Labour candidates,
female MPs and ‘family friendly’ policies e.g.
maternity/paternity leave have helped to attract
women voters.
Ethnicity
• A majority of Black and Asian voters support the Labour
party.
• This is due to Labour’s more liberal stance on issues
such as immigration and asylum seekers.
• Ethnic minority voters are heavily concentrated in inner
city areas where Labour support has traditionally been
strong.
• A significant minority of Asian voters vote Conservative
e.g. 25% in the 1997 election.
• Large sections of some minority communities have voted
against Labour and for left wing alternatives in response
to foreign policy in Iraq and Afghanistan e.g. Respect
Coalition in Bethnal Green
Geography
• There is clear evidence of a North-South divide
in voting.
• Traditionally the Conservatives were much
stronger in the southern half of England,
including the English Midlands. Labour on the
other hands were much stronger in Scotland,
Northern England and Wales.
• In 1997 Labour gained support in Greater
London and the English Midlands but a NorthSouth divide was still evident.
• In the 2005 Election, the Conservatives won only
1 seat in Scotland and 3 in Wales.
Leadership
• Politics in Britain has become increasingly
‘Presidential’ – many would argue the
personality of the leader has a significant
influence on voting behaviour.
• Leaders of the main parties:
Labour
Conservative
Liberal Democrat
SNP
Short Term Influences
• Leadership
• Issues/Policies
• Media
Leadership
• In 1997 Tony Blair’s energy, youth, dynamism and
untarnished imaged contrasted with the tired, wornout, grey and bland image of John Major.
• However in 2005, Labour lost 5.8% of their vote. One
of the top three reasons for not voting Labour was that
voters did not trust Tony Blair. However the
Conservative leader, Michael Howard did not have a
positive enough image to win the election.
• In 2010 Gordon Brown’s negative image in the media
cost Labour a great many votes
Issues/Policies
Imagine that you had just
turned 18 and the Prime
Minister has just called an
other general election.
What issues would you be
most concerned about?
Issues/Policies
• Many political scientists argue that there has
been an increase in ‘rational voting’ and that
voters choose parties according to their policies
on issues such as tax, health, education etc.
• Between 1979-1992, the Conservatives were
regarded as the party of low taxes and Labour
as the party of high taxes and public spending.
• In 2010 the ‘Con-Dem’ Coalition is portraying
itself as the government to solve the deficit
problem by cutting public spending, whereas
Labour under Miliband may well realigned on the
left
Issues/Policies
• In 1997, Labour concentrated on issues such
and education and health (which the public saw
as important) and portrayed themselves as the
party of prudent financial management.
• A party which appears weak and divided over
key issues will struggle to get itself elected e.g.
in 2001 the Conservatives were bitterly divided
over Europe.
• However by the 2005 elections, issues such as
the war in Iraq and immigration combined with a
lack of trust in Tony Blair contributed to a decline
in the Labour vote.
Media
• There is controversy over the influence
that the media can have in an election.
• Legally television channels have to be
‘non partisan’ in their coverage of an
election and give equal amounts of
coverage to the major and minor parties in
news bulletins, party political broadcasts
etc.
Media – the papers
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However the national press
(newspapers) can and will openly
support a particular party during
an election.
Traditionally the national press
has shown greater support for the
Conservatives.
This was most evident in the 1992
election when 70% of national
newspapers supported the
.
Conservatives
Media
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•
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In 1997 The Sun ran a special 9
page feature of the day of the
election. The headlines said “If
Kinnock wins today, will the last
person to leave Britain please turn
out the lights”.
By 1997 Labour was able to
reverse press hostility and 60% of
national newspapers advised their
readers to vote Labour including
the Sun!!
In 2010 The Sun withdrew its
support for Labour and they lost
again
Media
• It is difficult to evaluate the influence
of newspapers on voting behaviour.
• Do people vote for a party because
they are influenced by a newspapers
political stance or do they buy the
paper because it reflects and
reinforces their political views?
Media
• Clearly political parties think that the
media does influence voters and they
spend huge amounts of time and money to
ensure that their party is represented in a
positive manner.
• Remember that factors such as
leadership, issues and the media can
overlap e.g. how a leader is portrayed in
the media can create a strong/weak
image.
2001 Past Paper
To what extent does social class influence
voting behaviour?
(10 marks)
• Aim to cover at least four main factors – one
must be social class
• Have a balance between long and short-term
factors
• Think carefully about a possible conclusion and
the points you would make.