Transcript Labour Market Flexibility Research Seminar, London, 15 December

Labour Market Flexibility and
Sectoral Productivity:
A Comparative Study
John Grahl
London Metropolitan University
[email protected]
Labour Market Flexibility Research Seminar, 15 December 2004
Overview of presentation
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Introduction
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Data Sets
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Regression results
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Interpreting the Results
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Other considerations
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Conclusion
Labour Market Flexibility Research Seminar, 15 December 2004
Introduction:
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Big sectoral differences in employment
forms
- which may differ across countries
Do these sectoral differences impact on
sectoral performance?
Are such impacts similar across countries?
Labour Market Flexibility Research Seminar, 15 December 2004
Productivity Data
British Underperformers:
Textiles
Wood products
Activities auxiliary to financial intermediation
Furniture and miscellaneous manufacturing
Mineral oil refining, coke and nuclear fuel
Financial Intermediation
Research
Printing and publishing
Computer and related activities
Labour Market Flexibility Research Seminar, 15 December 2004
Productivity Data
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British High Performers
Inland Transport
Mining
Motor Vehicle Maintenance, Sale and Repair
Leather and Footwear
Other Community and Social Services
Scientific and other instruments
Construction
Electricity, Gas and Water Supply
Labour Market Flexibility Research Seminar, 15 December 2004
Employment data: ELFS
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Gender
Age (under 15; 15-24; 25-54; 55-64; 65 or over)
Education (lower secondary; upper secondary; third
level)
Employment Status (employee; family worker; selfemployed)
Employment duration (permanent; temporary;
contract worker)
Working hours (full-time; part-time)
Labour Market Flexibility Research Seminar, 15 December 2004
Regressions
Performed by country
Two outliers: electronic equipment and office equipment
Data 1994-2001
Dependent variable: sector productivity (level or growth)
Independent variables:
•Employment variables
•Year dummies
•Control: labour-shedding
Labour Market Flexibility Research Seminar, 15 December 2004
Results
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Employment variables have little
explanatory power
But mostly significant
Male gender, Prime age, Educational
status positively associated with
productivity
Self-employment, part-time work,
temporary work negatively associated
with productivity
Labour Market Flexibility Research Seminar, 15 December 2004
Results: exceptions
•Temporary work and productivity level (France)
•Part-time work and productivity growth (Sweden,
excluding outliers)
•Temporary work and productivity growth
(Sweden, excluding outliers)
•Self-employment and productivity growth
(Britain, excluding outliers)
Labour Market Flexibility Research Seminar, 15 December 2004
Other Exceptions
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Gender effects different in Sweden from
those in the other three countries
Anomalous results for education in
Britain
Absence of usual strong “prime-age”
effect in Germany.
Labour Market Flexibility Research Seminar, 15 December 2004
Interpretation
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Direct effects: often implausible (except
perhaps educational status?)
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Reverse causation – for example,
gender?
Various types of crowding and
segmentation effect?
For the outliers – little concern with
labour productivity because TFP so
dependent on technology
Labour Market Flexibility Research Seminar, 15 December 2004
Interpretation: Limitations
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No economy-wide effects
1994-2001
Workers not sectors
No productivity model
Labour Market Flexibility Research Seminar, 15 December 2004
Other Considerations 1
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Germany: build a high-employment
low productivity service sector – concern is
total wage costs, not productivity
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France: concern is that Aubry law has
gone too far
Sweden: concern over employment has led
to deregulation of temporary contracts
Labour Market Flexibility Research Seminar, 15 December 2004
Other Considerations 2
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British concern with labour productivity may
be abating
Is this result of supply or demand factors?
Self-employment positively associated with
productivity growth in Britain
Positive privatisation effects – inland
transport, utilities?
Source: ######
Labour Market Flexibility Research Seminar, 15 December 2004
Concluding remarks
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Generally negative results for “flexible”
forms of employment
Not necessarily to be seen as impact of
employment form on productivity – could be
segmentation/crowding processes
But likely to call these forms into question.