Transcript HC method - International Road Safety Centre

Crash cost calculations
Assist. Prof. Dalibor Pešić, PhD,
University of Belgrade,
Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering
[email protected]
Consortium SAFEGE – IMC Worldwide – Grant Thornton – Granturco & Partners
Head Office Belgium – Gulledelle 92, B-1200 Brussels, BELGIUM,
Tel: +32-2-739.46.98, +33-146-14-72-94, Fax: +32.2.742.38.91
Project Office: Kiev, Ukraine
Very complex procedure
A
A
B
B(Valli, Sarkar 1997; Partheeban et al. 2008)
Importance of the costs
 Establishing traffic safety to the level defined by
the size of costs!
 Politicians, decision makers and stakeholders in
the field of traffic safety often need quick
estimation of the traffic accident costs!
 Economic effects of the particular measures
which are applied for decreasing the number
and severity of the traffic accidents.
 Resources have not been allocated for
improvements of road safety!
 Huge annual economic losses continue to
drain national resources!
 Life is too important to be monetary valued!
Where to allocate money?
JUNCTION 1
JUNCTION 2
3 KILLED
4 KILLED
600 veh/h
2400 veh/h
Engineering approach – JUNCTION 1! (It is more
dangerous because of killed/volume ratio)
Politicians’ approach – JUNCTION 2! (We save
more lives with same amount of money)
Different methods
(Alfaro et al. 1994)
Different methods
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Willingness to pay (WTP),
Willingness to accept (WTA)
Ex
ante
Value of statistical life
Human Capital, brutto output
Netto output
Ex post
Life insurance method
Court award method
Implicit public sector valuation method
Potential Years of Life Lost (PYLL) or Disability
adjusted Life Years (DALYs), Health indices
(Richardson, Brooks)
 Cost of illness – (Persson)
Value of statistical life
VOSL presents product of multiplying
marginal value of WTP and inverse value
of risk decreasing.
For example, if each of 100.000 people
are going to pay 10 € for decreasing
probability of death for 1:100000, then
total value for increasing the level of the
traffic safety (VOSL) is 1 million € (De
Blaeij et al. 2000).
Potential Years of Life Lost (PYLL)
Costs of injuries estimates the risk based
on Potential Years of Life Lost (PYLL) or
Disability adjusted Life Years (DALYs),
while Brooks (1991) use method of Health
Indices based on probability for longer
and more qualitative life.
For example, three years with a quality
level value of 0.67 are equal to two years
of life with a quality level 1.
Human capital method
The main component in this approach is
the discounted present value of a victim’s
future income forgone due to premature
death.
This approach views each person as a
unique and valuable economic entity.
Human capital method
The main component in this approach is the
discounted present value of a victim’s future
income forgone due to premature death.
This approach views each person as a
unique and valuable economic entity.
Once the unit cost for different categories of
accidents is determined, the total national
accident cost can be computed, based on
the known number of classified accident
counts.
Definitions of accidents
A fatal casualty in a road accident is one in
which the victim dies within 30 days of the
accident.
A seriously injured casualty is one who has
suffered injuries such as fractures or a
concussion and/or internal lesions, crushed
body parts or organs, severe cuts, or severe
general shock requiring medical treatment or
hospitalization that prevents the person from
performing ordinary tasks for at least 7 days.
Definitions of accidents
A slightly injured casualty is one who is
transported to a hospital from the scene in an
ambulance or, otherwise, one who requires
subsequent medical treatment entailing
hospitalization and medical leave of no less
than 3 days.
Accidents are assigned to a severity group
according to the most seriously affected
casualty in the accident.
HC method – cost components
Property damage costs
Emergency services costs
Insurance administration
Workplace costs
Medical costs
Legal costs
Travel Delay
Lost productivity
Human costs
WIDE
LIST
HC method – cost components
Property damage costs
Administration costs
Medical costs
Lost productivity
Human costs
SHORT
LIST
HC method – Property damage
Insurance companies
Fleet operators
Motor vehicle workshops
Non-vehicle damage
Property damage costs can vary
considerably, depending on the degree of
wreckage sustained.
HC method – Property damage
PDC Fatal – 8.364$
PDC Serious – 5.476$
PDC Slight – 4.480$
PDO (No injuries) – 2.701$
(Babtie Ross & Silcock and TRL, 2003)
HC method – Administrative costs
Traffic police
Emergency response services
Insurance
Legal (court)
In apportioning the distribution of
administrative costs to the different classes
of accidents, the ratios are: 50:1 (Fatal), 8:1
(Serious), 5:1 (Slight), and 1:1 (PDO).
HC method – Medical costs
All the costs of a medical care for
the injuries caused by a traffic
accident, including ambulance
transport. Beside that, medical costs
also include the costs of the
emergency room, hospital bills,
home visits, physical therapy,
rehabilitation, medicines, prosthetic
devices etc.
HC method – Medical costs
All the costs of a medical care for
the injuries caused by a traffic
accident, including ambulance
transport. Beside that, medical costs
also include the costs of the
emergency room, hospital bills,
home visits, physical therapy,
rehabilitation, medicines, prosthetic
devices etc.
HC method – Medical costs
Translation of the costs into duration
(number of hospital days).
Slight - 2 days
Serious – 30 days
HC method – Lost output
Includes the costs of lost market
productivity and a household
productivity. Market productivity
represents the discount value of a lost
income during the remaining years of life,
whereas household productivity
represents the value of the diminished
household activities, defined as a ‘price’
of hiring a person responsible for the
implementation of those activities.
HC method – Lost output
Slight (5 days)
Serious (57 days, of which 30 are hospital
days and 27 days of recovery), lost days
for a caregiver (8 days).
Fatal (Average life expectancy, Average
age of killed in traffic accident, GDP,
wages, discount rate...)
HC method – Human costs
Pain, Grief, and Suffering
The lack of a rigorous method of
objective assessment.
The difficulty in placing an appropriate
value on pain, grief, and suffering.
Overcome by using percentage of
human costs to overall accident cost.
HC method – Human costs
28% of total costs for a fatal
accident,
50% of total costs for a serious injury
accident,
8% of total costs for a slight injury
accident.
Aggregate costs
Aggregate costs – Casualty rates
Under-reported accidents
75% of the reported PDO accident,
50% of the reported slight injury
accident,
5% of the reported serious injury
accident.
No unreported Fatal accidents!
Conclusion
It is better to overestimate than
underestimate traffic accident costs!
If the estimated costs are higher, the
authorities should invest more in road
safety research, to better understand
the causes of road accidents, and in
road safety programmes, to improve
the road environment.
What have we done?
GERMANY (GDP 3,5 х GDP SERBIA)
FATAL – 1.018.065 €
SEROUS – 105.447 €
SLIGHT – 4.305 €
GREAT BRITAIN (GDP 4,3 х GDP SERBIA)
FATAL – 2.090.014 €
SEROUS – 192.283 €
SLIGHT – 20.221 €
What have we done?
(EUROS)
HC METHOD
Антић (2011)
PER ACCIDENT
PER CASUALTY
SLI
SER
FAT
SLI
SER
FAT
3.082 21.793 309.753 2.250 15.909 281.593
Ross (2012)
Germany
(2005)
WTP METHOD
G.Britain
(2013)IMF
G.Britain
(2013)WB
3.181
34.094 317.317
2.322
24.886 288.470
1.685
41.287 319.966
1.230
30.136 290.878
SLI
SER
FAT
SLI
SER
FAT
9.553
90.836 792.763
6.973
66.304 720.694
6.443
61.262 534.655
4.703
44.717 486.050
What have we done?
EURO
TOTAL
COSTS
(2003)
TOTAL
COSTS
(2008)
TOTAL
COSTS
(2009)
PDO
SLI
SEI
FATAL
TOTAL
74165175 19550444 38630866 124241180 256587665
156094450 52213360 78644735 228923370 515875915
165621260 55748978 83373205 227526749 532270192
Traffic accidents costs in the countries
which are in transition is about 1.5% of GDP
Do not forget to PUBLISH!
Implementation of the regional road safety Action Plan for the Neighbourhood
East and Central Asia – TRACECA Road Safety II
EuropeAid/133698/C/SER/Multi
Project funded by EU
Thank you for your attention!
Consortium SAFEGE – IMC Worldwide – Grant Thornton – Granturco & Partners
Head Office Belgium – Gulledelle 92, B-1200 Brussels, BELGIUM,
Tel: +32-2-739.46.98, +33-146-14-72-94, Fax: +32.2.742.38.91
Project Office: Kiev, Ukraine