Transcript Chapter 1 - McGraw Hill Higher Education - McGraw

Business Plug-In B12
Global Trends
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LEARNING OUTCOMES
1. Identify the trends that will have the
greatest impact on future business
2. Identify the technologies that will have the
greatest impact on future business
3. Explain why understanding trends and
new technologies can help an
organization prepare for the future
12-2
Introduction
O Obtaining a broad view of emerging
trends and new technologies as they
relate to business can help an
organization anticipate and prepare
for the future
O Organizations that can most effectively
grasp the deep currents of
technological evolution can use their
knowledge to protect themselves
against sudden and fatal technological
obsolescence
12-3
Reasons to Watch Trends
O
Trend analysis – the examination of a trend to
identify its nature, causes, speed of
development, and potential impacts
O
Trend monitoring – trends viewed as
particularly important in a specific
community, industry, or sector are carefully
monitored, watched, and reported to key
decision makers
O
Trend projection – when numerical data are
available, a trend can be plotted to display
changes through time and into the future
12-4
Reasons to Watch Trends
O
Computer simulation – complex systems
can be modeled by means of
mathematical equations and different
scenarios can be run against the model to
determine “what if” analysis
O
Historical analysis – historical events are
studied to anticipate the outcome of
current developments
12-5
Reasons to Watch Trends
12-6
Trends Shaping Our
Future
O
The following trends have the potential to
change our world, our future, and our lives:
O World’s population will double in the next 40 years
O People in developed countries are living longer
O Growth in information industries is creating a
O
O
O
O
knowledge-dependent global society
The global economy is becoming more integrated
The economy and society are dominated by
technology
Pace of technological innovation is increasing
Time is becoming one of the most precious
commodities
12-7
THE WORLD’S POPULATION WILL
DOUBLE OVER THE NEXT 40 YEARS
O Countries expected to have the largest
population increases
O Palestinian Territory – 217% increase
O Niger – 205%
O Yemen – 168%
O Angola – 162%
O Democratic Republic of the Congo – 161%
O Uganda – 133%
12-8
THE WORLD’S POPULATION WILL
DOUBLE OVER THE NEXT 40
YEARS
O
In contrast,
developed and
industrialized
countries are
expected to see
fertility rates
decrease below
population
replacement
levels, leading to
significant
declines in
population
12-9
THE WORLD’S POPULATION WILL
DOUBLE OVER THE NEXT 40 YEARS
O Potential business impact
O Global agriculture will be required to supply
as much food as has been produced during
all of human history to meet needs over the
next 40 years
O Developed nations will find that retirees will
have to remain on the job to remain
competitive
O Developed nations will begin to increase
immigration limits
12-10
PEOPLE IN DEVELOPED
COUNTRIES ARE LIVING LONGER
O On average, each
generation in the
United States
lives three years
longer than the
previous
O An 80-year-old in
1950 could
expect to live 6.5
years longer
today
12-11
PEOPLE IN DEVELOPED
COUNTRIES ARE LIVING LONGER
O Potential business impact
O Global demand for elderly products and services will
grow quickly in the coming decades
O The cost of health care is destined to skyrocket
O Pharmaceutical companies will be pushed for
advances in geriatric medicine
12-12
THE GROWTH IN INFORMATION
INDUSTRIES IS CREATING A
KNOWLEDGE-DEPENDENT
GLOBAL SOCIETY
O
90% of American management personnel will
be knowledge workers by 2008
O
A typical large organization in 2010 will have
fewer than half the management levels of its
counterpart in 1990, and about 1/3 the
number of managers
12-13
THE GROWTH IN INFORMATION
INDUSTRIES IS CREATING A
KNOWLEDGE-DEPENDENT
GLOBAL SOCIETY
O Potential business impact
O Top managers must be computer-literate to retain
their jobs and achieve success
O Knowledge workers are generally higher paid and
their proliferation is increasing overall prosperity
O Entry-level and unskilled positions are requiring a
growing level of education
O Information now flows from front-office workers to
higher management for analysis
O Downsizing, restructuring, reorganization,
outsourcing, and layoffs will continue
12-14
THE GLOBAL ECONOMY IS
BECOMING MORE INTEGRATED
O Potential business impact
O Demand for personnel in distant countries will
increase the need for foreign language training and
employee incentives suited to other cultures
O E-business and the Internet will reduce the cost of
doing business
O The Internet will allow small companies to compete
with worldwide giants with relatively little investment
12-15
THE ECONOMY AND SOCIETY ARE
DOMINATED BY TECHNOLOGY
O Computers are becoming a part of our environment
O Artificial intelligence and expert systems will help
most companies and government agencies
assimilate data and solve problems beyond the
range of today’s computers
O Personal robots will appear in the home
12-16
THE ECONOMY AND SOCIETY ARE
DOMINATED BY TECHNOLOGY
O Potential business impact
O New technologies provide dozens of new opportunities
to create businesses and jobs
O Automation will continue to decrease the cost of
products and services, making it possible to reduce
prices while improving profits
O Demand for scientists, engineers, and technicians will
continue to grow
12-17
PACE OF TECHNOLOGICAL
INNOVATION IS INCREASING
O Medical knowledge is doubling every eight years
O 50% of what students learn in their freshman year
of college is obsolete, revised, or taken for granted
by their senior year
O All of today’s technical knowledge will represent
only 1 percent of the knowledge that will be
available in 2050
12-18
PACE OF TECHNOLOGICAL
INNOVATION IS INCREASING
O Potential business impact
O Shortened time-to-market for products and services
O Tighter competition based on new technologies
12-19
TIME IS BECOMING ONE OF THE
WORLD’S MOST PRECIOUS
COMMODITIES
O U.S. workers spend 10% more time on the job than they did a
decade ago
O European executives and nonunionized workers face the
same trend
O This high-pressured environment is increasing the need for
any product or service that saves time or simplifies life
12-20
TIME IS BECOMING ONE OF THE
WORLD’S MOST PRECIOUS
COMMODITIES
O Potential business impact
O Companies must take an active role in helping
their employees balance their work and lives
O Stress-related problems affecting employee
morale and wellness will continue to grow
O Use of the Internet will continue to grow as the
time to perform activities, such as shopping at a
mall, evaporates
12-21
Technologies Shaping Our
Future
O The following technologies have the potential to
change our world, our future, and our lives:
O Digital ink
O Digital paper
O Teleliving
O Alternative energy sources
O Autonomic computing
12-22
DIGITAL INK
O Digital ink (or electronic ink) – refers to technology
that digitally represents handwriting in its natural
form
12-23
DIGITAL INK
O Potential business impact
O Digital ink can be used in many applications:
O Point-of-sale signs
O Next generation displays in mobile devices and PDAs
O Thin, portable electronic books and newspapers
O RadioPaper – dynamic high-resolution electronic
display that combines a paperlike reading
experience with the ability to access information
anytime, anywhere
12-24
DIGITAL PAPER
O Digital paper (or electronic paper) – any paper
that is optimized for any type of digital printing
O The major difference between paper produced
from a tree and paper produced in a laboratory
is that information on a digital paper sheet can
be altered thousands of times and not degrade
over time
12-25
DIGITAL PAPER
O Potential business impact
O Paperlike displays will replace newspapers,
magazines, and books
O Reusable paper is an environmentally sound idea
12-26
TELELIVING
O Teleliving – refers to using information devices
and the Internet to conduct all aspects of life
seamlessly
O Includes shopping, working, learning, playing,
healing, and even praying
O Each year, four billion chips are embedded in
everything from coffee makers to Cadillac's
12-27
TELELIVING
O Potential business impact
O In the future, people will move through a
constant stream of information summoned at the
touch of a finger
O Virtual assistant (VA) – a small program stored
on a PC or portable device that monitors e-mails,
faxes, messages, and phone calls. VAs will
mimic real assistants helping individuals solve
problems
O Robotic salespeople will take on human
appearances and perform all tasks associated
with a sales job
12-28
ALTERNATIVE ENERGY
SOURCES
O
Wind, geothermal,
hydroelectric, solar, and other
alternative energy sources will
account for 30 percent of all
energy use
O
By 2010 nuclear plants will
supply 16% of Russia and
eastern Europe’s energy
12-29
ALTERNATIVE ENERGY
SOURCES
O Potential business impact
O China, Asia, India, South America, and Russia are
modernizing their economies, which increases their needs
for energy
O Cost of alternative energy sources is decreasing
O Deregulation of the energy industry is expected to increase
innovation and foster a wide variety of new energy sources
O Oil will remain the world’s most important energy source
12-30
AUTONOMIC COMPUTING
O Autonomic computing – a self-managing
computing model named after, and
patterned on, the human body’s autonomic
nervous system
O Level 1: Basic
O Level 2: Managed
O Level 3: Predictive
O Level 4: Adaptive
O Level 5: Autonomic
12-31
AUTONOMIC COMPUTING
O Potential business impact
O Autonomic computing will be used in complex IT
infrastructures for security, storage, network
management, and redundancy/failover
O Computers will monitor components and fine-tune
workflows
O Autonomic computers will be able to “self-heal”
O Autonomic computers will be able to “self-protect”
12-32