Transcript Potential business impact

Business Plug-In B12
Global Trends (on OLC)
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2013 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
LEARNING OUTCOMES
1. Identify the trends that will have the
greatest impact on future business.
2. Identify the technologies that will have the
greatest impact on future business.
3. Explain why understanding trends and new
technologies can help an organization
prepare for the future.
B12-2
REASONS TO WATCH TRENDS
• Organizations anticipate, forecast, and assess
future events using a variety of rational,
scientific methods including:
– Trend Analysis
– Trend Monitoring
– Trend Projection
– Computer Simulation
– Historical Analysis
B12-3
THE WORLD’S POPULATION WILL DOUBLE
OVER THE NEXT 40 YEARS
• In contrast, developed and industrialized countries are
expected to see fertility rates decrease below
population replacement levels
• Potential business impact:
–
Global agriculture will be required to supply as much
food as has been produced during all of human history
to meet needs over the next 40 years
–
Developed nations will find that retirees will have to
remain on the job to remain competitive
–
Developed nations will begin to increase immigration
limits
B12-4
PEOPLE IN DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
ARE LIVING LONGER
• On average, each generation in the United States
lives three years longer than the previous
• Potential business impact:
–
Global demand for elderly products and services
will grow quickly in the coming decades
–
The cost of health care is destined to skyrocket
–
Pharmaceutical companies will be pushed for
advances in geriatric medicine
B12-5
KNOWLEDGE-DEPENDENT
GLOBAL SOCIETY
• Potential business impact:
– Top managers must be computer-literate to retain their
jobs and achieve success
– Knowledge workers are generally higher paid and their
proliferation is increasing overall prosperity
– Entry-level and unskilled positions are requiring a
growing level of education
– Information now flows from front-office workers to higher
management for analysis
– Downsizing, restructuring, reorganization, outsourcing,
and layoffs will continue
B12-6
THE GLOBAL ECONOMY IS BECOMING
MORE INTEGRATED
• Internet users numbered about 500 million worldwide
in 2003, 1 billion in 2005, and are growing by 6%
monthly
• Potential business impact:
– Demand for personnel in distant countries will increase
the need for foreign language training and employee
incentives suited to other cultures
– Ebusiness and the Internet will reduce the cost of doing
business
– The Internet will allow small companies to compete with
worldwide giants with relatively little investment
B12-7
THE ECONOMY AND SOCIETY ARE
DOMINATED BY TECHNOLOGY
• Potential business impact:
– New technologies provide dozens of new
opportunities to create businesses and jobs
– Automation will continue to decrease the cost of
products and services, making it possible to
reduce prices while improving profits
– Demand for scientists, engineers, and
technicians will continue to grow
B12-8
PACE OF TECHNOLOGICAL
INNOVATION IS INCREASING
• 50% of what students learn in their freshman year of
college is obsolete, revised, or taken for granted by
their senior year
• All of today’s technical knowledge will represent only 1
percent of the knowledge that will be available in 2050
• Potential business impact:
– Shortened time-to-market for products and services
– Tighter competition based on new technologies
B12-9
TIME IS THE WORLD’S MOST
PRECIOUS COMMODITIES
• Potential business impact:
– Companies must take an active role in helping
their employees balance their work and lives
– Stress-related problems affecting employee
morale and wellness will continue to grow
– Use of the Internet will continue to grow as the
time to perform activities, such as shopping at a
mall, evaporates
B12-10
DIGITAL INK
• Digital Ink (or electronic ink)—Refers to
technology that digitally represents handwriting in
its natural form
• Potential business impact:
– Digital ink can be used in many applications
– RadioPaper—Dynamic high-resolution
electronic display that combines a paperlike
reading experience with the ability to access
information anytime, anywhere
B12-11
DIGITAL PAPER
• Digital Paper (or electronic paper)—Any paper
that is optimized for any type of digital printing
• The major difference between paper produced from a
tree and paper produced in a laboratory is that
information on a digital paper sheet can be altered
thousands of times and not degrade over time
• Potential business impact:
– Paperlike displays will replace newspapers,
magazines, and books
– The idea is environmentally sound
B12-12
TELELIVING
• Teleliving—Refers to using information devices
and the Internet to conduct all aspects of life
seamlessly
• Potential business impact:
– Virtual Assistant (VA)—A small program stored on
a PC or portable device that monitors e-mails, faxes,
messages, and phone calls. VAs will mimic real
assistants helping individuals solve problems.
B12-13
ALTERNATIVE ENERGY
SOURCES
• Wind, geothermal, hydroelectric, solar, and other
alternative energy sources will account for 30 percent
of all energy use
• Potential business impact:
– China, Asia, India, South America, and Russia are
modernizing their economies, which increases their
needs for energy
– Cost of alternative energy sources is decreasing
– Deregulation of the energy industry is expected to
increase innovation and foster a wide variety of new
energy sources
– Oil will remain the most important energy source
B12-14
AUTONOMIC COMPUTING
• Autonomic Computing—A self-managing computing
model named after, and patterned on, the human
body’s autonomic nervous system
• Potential business impact:
–
Autonomic computing will be used in complex IT
infrastructures for security, storage, network
management, and redundancy/failover
–
Computers will monitor components and fine-tune
workflows
–
Autonomic computers will be able to “self-heal”
–
Autonomic computers will be able to “self-protect”
B12-15