Transcript Emerging Trends and Technologies

BUSINESS B8
Emerging Trends and
Technologies
Learning Outcomes
1. Identify the trends that will have the greatest
impact on future business
2. Identify the technologies that will have the
greatest impact on future business
3. Explain why understanding trends and new
technologies can help an organization
prepare for the future
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Introduction
 Obtaining a broad view of emerging trends
and new technologies as they relate to
business can help an organization anticipate
and prepare for the future
 Organizations that can most effectively grasp
the deep currents of technological evolution
can use their knowledge to protect
themselves against sudden and fatal
technological obsolescence
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Trends
 Trend analysis – the examination of a trend to identify its
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nature, causes, speed of development, and potential impacts
Trend monitoring – trends viewed as particularly important
in a specific community, industry, or sector are carefully
monitored, watched, and reported to key decision makers
Trend projection – when numerical data is available a trend
can be plotted on graph paper to display changes through
time and into the future
Computer simulation – complex systems can be modeled
by means of mathematical equations and different scenarios
can be run against the model to determine “what if” analysis
Historical analysis – the study of historical events in order
to anticipate the outcome of current developments
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Top reasons organizations should study trends
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Trends Shaping Our Future
 World’s population will double in the next 40 years
 Population in developed countries is living longer
 Growth in information industries creates a
knowledge-dependent global society
 The global economy is becoming more integrated
 The economy and society are dominated by
technology
 Pace of technological innovation is increasing
 Time is becoming one of the most precious
commodities
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The world’s population will double
over the next 40 years
Potential business impact:
 Global agriculture will be required to supply as much food
as has been produced during all of human history to meet
needs over the next 40 years
 Developed nations will find that retirees will have to
remain on the job to remain competitive
 Developed nations will begin to increase immigration limits7
Population in developed countries is
living longer
Potential business impact:
 Global demand for elderly products and services will grow
quickly in the coming decades
 The cost of health care is destined to skyrocket
 Pharmaceutical companies will be pushed for advances in
geriatric medicine
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The growth in information industries is
creating a knowledge-dependent global society
 83% of American management personnel will be knowledge
workers by 2005
 A typical large organization in 2010 will have fewer than half the
management levels of its counterpart in 1990, and about 1/3 the
number of managers
Potential business impact:
 Top managers must be computer-literate to retain their jobs and
achieve success
 Knowledge workers are generally higher paid and their
proliferation is increasing overall prosperity
 Entry-level and unskilled positions are requiring a growing level
of education
 Information now flows from front-office workers to higher
management for analysis
 Downsizing, restructuring, reorganization, outsourcing, and
layoffs will continue
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The global economy is becoming more
integrated
 International outsourcing is on the rise
 The European Union has relaxed its borders and capital
controls
 Internet users numbered about 500 million worldwide in
2003, Internet users are growing by 6% monthly
Potential business impact:
 Demand for personnel in distant countries will increase the
need for foreign language training and employee
incentives suited to other cultures
 E-business and the Internet will reduce the cost of doing
business
 The Internet will allow small companies to compete with
worldwide giants with relatively little investment
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The economy and society are
dominated by technology
 Computers are becoming a part of our environment
 By 2007, artificial intelligence and expert systems will help
most companies and government agencies assimilate
data and solve problems beyond the range of today’s
computers
 Personal robots will appear in the home by 2010
Potential business impact:
 New technologies provide dozens of new opportunities to
create businesses and jobs
 Automation will continue to decrease the cost of products
and services, making it possible to reduce prices while
improving profits
 Demand for scientists, engineers, and technicians will
continue to grow
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Pace of technological innovation is
increasing
 Medical knowledge is doubling every eight years
 50% of what students learn in their freshman year of
college is obsolete, revised, or taken for granted by
their senior year
 All of today’s technical knowledge will represent only
1 percent of the knowledge that will be available in
2050
Potential business impact:
 Shortened time-to-market for products and services
 Tighter competition based on new technologies
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Time is becoming one of the world’s
most precious commodities
 U.S. workers spend 10% more time on the job than they
did a decade ago
 European executives and nonunionized workers face the
same trend
 This high-pressured environment is increasing the need
for any product or service that saves time or simplifies life
Potential business impact:
 Companies must take an active role in helping their
employees balance their work and lives
 Stress-related problems affecting employee morale and
wellness will continue to grow
 Use of the Internet will continue to grow as the time to
perform activities, such as shopping at a mall, evaporates
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The following technologies have the
potential to change our future
 Digital ink
 Digital paper
 Radio frequency identification (RFID)
 Teleliving
 Alternative energy sources
 Autonomic computing
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Digital Ink (or Electronic Ink)
refers to technology that digitally represents handwriting in its
natural form
 Digital ink can be used in many applications:
 Point-of-sale signs
 Next generation displays in mobile devices and PDAs
 Thin, portable electronic books and newspapers
 RadioPaper – dynamic high-resolution electronic display that
combines a paperlike reading experience with the ability to
access information anytime, anywhere
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Digital Paper (or Electronic Paper)
any paper that is optimized for any type of digital
printing
 The major difference between paper produced from a
tree and paper produced in a laboratory is that
information on a digital paper sheet can be altered
thousands of times and not degrade over time
Potential business impact:
 Paperlike displays will replace newspapers,
magazines, and books
 Reusable paper is an environmentally sound idea
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Digital Paper
Digital ink and digital paper
past, present, and future
Radio frequency identification (RFID)
 RFID – uses active or passive tags in the form of chips or smart
labels that can store unique identifiers and relay this information
to electronic readers
 RFID systems are automated, reducing the need for manual
scanning, such as required with a bar code
Potential business impact:
 Reduces the labor required to monitor goods movement and
inventory flow through a supply chain
 Allows manufacturers and retailers to complement existing
systems while gathering more information
 Provides complete supply chain visibility without the prohibitive
labor costs and error rates associated with a manual system
 RFID helps enforce security by conducting automatic inventory
counts
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Comparison of bar code labeling to RFID
Closing Case One:
Mail with PostalOne
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United States Postal Service’s (USPS) productivity has grown
by only 11 percent over the past three decades
USPS is pursuing several e-business projects to help increase
growth including:
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NetPost Mailing Online
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Post Electronic Courier Service
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NetPost.Certified
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EBillPay
Do you think the USPS’s steps are far-reaching enough to
ensure its relevance in e-business?
What other strategic alliances, akin to its partnership with
CheckFree, can the Postal Service develop to stay
competitive?
Why would the USPS compete in a market that private
companies already serve well?
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Teleliving
 Teleliving – refers to using information devices and the Internet
to conduct all aspects of life seamlessly
 Includes shopping, working, learning, playing, healing, and even
praying
 Each year, four billion chips are embedded in everything from
coffee makers to Cadillacs
Potential business impact
 In the future, people will move through a constant stream of
information summoned at the touch of a finger
 Virtual assistant (VA) – a small program stored on a PC or
portable device that monitors e-mails, faxes, messages, and
phone calls. VAs will mimic real assistants helping individuals
solve problems
 Robotic salespeople will take on human appearances and
perform all tasks associated with a sales job
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Alternative Energy Sources
 Wind, geothermal, hydroelectric, solar, and other
alternative energy sources will account for 30 percent of
all energy use
 By 2010 nuclear plants will supply 16% of Russia and
eastern Europe’s energy
Potential business impact:
 China, India, South America, and Russia are modernizing
their economies, which increases their needs for energy
 Cost of alternative energy sources is decreasing
 Deregulation of the energy industry is expected to
increase innovation and foster a wide variety of new
energy sources
 Oil will remain the world’s most important energy source
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Autonomic Computing
 Autonomic computing – a self-managing computing
model named after, and patterned on, the human body’s
autonomic nervous system
Potential business impact:
 Autonomic computing will be used in complex IT
infrastructures for security, storage, network management,
and redundancy/failover
 Computers will monitor components and fine-tune
workflows
 Autonomic computers will be able to “self-heal”
 Autonomic computers will be able to “self-protect”
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Autonomic Computing