Transcript Modern Politics - The Independent School

Modern Politics
Some Basics
Congress
 435 Member of the
House
 Based on Population
 Serve two-year terms
 Kansas has four
(California has 53)
Senators
Pat
Roberts
Jerry Moran
 Two per state
(California has 2 and
so does Rhode
Island)
 Serve 6-year terms
 More important and
powerful than House
members
The President
 The President serves for
four year.
 Only gets two terms
(Senators and
Congressmen don’t have
term limits)
 The next election is 2012.
 Obama is the President
 Joe Biden is the Vice
President
Kansas Governor
 The Kansas Governor
is Sam Brownback.
He used to be our
Senator. He is
running for reelection
in 2014. He is very
conservative.
Modern Politics
 Modern politics traces back to
1932 and the Great
Depression.
 Franklin Roosevelt was a
Democrat and won in the
middle of the great depression.
 He served four terms.
 New Deal
 For the next 50 years the
Democrats dominated the
House and Senate.
 It was considered a “liberal”
era.
New Deal Liberalism
 Between 1932 and 1960 most of the liberalism had to do
with the economy
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Social Security
Unemployment Insurance
Increased regulation of big business
Protection for Union Workers
Welfare
Farm Subsidies
 This cost a lot of money. Taxes and spending went up.
 But, the government was taking better care of its people
 Conservatives thought the government was getting too
big. But, they were in the minority.
Lyndon Johnson
 Democrat. 1963-68.
Takes over for JFK
 Great Society
 Medicare
 Education programs
 “War on Poverty”
 More Economic liberalism
 Also passes Civil Rights
Act and Voting Rights Act
Vietnam
 1960-73
 Starts under Kennedy, but
Johnson escalates US
involvement
 War becomes very
unpopular by late 1967
 Lots of campus protests
 Americans start to
question military and Cold
War policy of intervening in
foreign countries to fight
communism
Social Revolution
 The 1960s and 1970s were also liberal, but
attention turned to social issues
 Civil Right movement starts in the 1950s
 Woman’s rights movement in the 1960s
 Environmental movement
 Sexual revolution
 It also had a more unsettling side.
 Viet Nam War protests
 Hippies
 Black Panthers and other Black Radical movements
 This made a lot of ordinary people nervous
Richard Nixon
 1968-1974
 Republican, but not very
conservative by today’s
standards. Democrats
control congress still.
 Vowed to end the Vietnam
War, but it took him a while
 Watergate. His
administration was corrupt
and he helped to hide it.
 He is forced to resign
 Republican brand image is
bad
Jimmy Carter
 Democrat. 1976-1980
 The economy was awful
 People had a hangover from
the 1960s, Vietnam and
Watergate
 Disco
 The country is getting more
conservative and social
issues start to become
important
 Abortion
 “Family Values”
Ronald Reagan
 Republican. 1980-88
 Beginning of the
Conservative Revolution
 “Morning in America”
 Reduce the size of national
government, cut welfare, kick
the crap out of the Soviet
Union, return to “family
values”
 Rise of the Christian
Conservative political
movement
George H.W. Bush
 Reagan’s VP. President
from 1988-1992
 Social Conservatives don’t
trust him.
 Wins the first Iraq war, but
then the economy goes
bad and his popularity goes
way down.
Bill Clinton
 1992-2000
 Democrats back in control of the White
House
 But, much less “liberal”. Country is
more conservative
 “Era of Big Government is over”
 Tries and fails to get Health Care
Reform
 After first two years people write him
off as dead.
 Republicans win big in mid-term
elections
 Republicans take control of the House
for the first time in 46 years in 1994.
Keep it until 2006.
Bill Clinton
 Clinton runs as the
alternative to a very
conservative Republican
party and wins easily in
1996.
 Helps that the economy is
in great shape
 Balances the budget for
first time in 30 years
 But, he likes the ladies.
 Monica Lewinski.
Impeachment. Not
convicted.
George W. Bush
 2000-2008
 Beats Al Gore. Gore gets more
votes; Bush gets more electoral
college votes.
 Florida, Florida, Florida
 9-11 give his presidency a
theme—protect against
terrorism.
 War in Iraq; War in Afghanistan
 Beats Kerry in 2004 by one state
 Hurricane Katrina, no WMD in
Iraq, economy goes bad, Bush
becomes very unpopular
Current Political Climate
 Democrats win back control of
House and Senate in 2006 midterms. Is the conservative era
over?
 Democrats win even more seats
in both houses in 2008
 Obama wins the Presidency in
2008 preaching hope and an end
to party bickering
 Media wonders if the
Republicans are dead
Current Political Climate
 Economy continues to go bad after
2008 election.
 Worst economic recession since
the great depression
 People unhappy.
 Republicans won’t cooperate with
Obama, but he rams through an
economic stimulus package and
Health Care reform.
 Rise of the Tea Party movement.
 1 part conservative frustration at
return of high government spending
and new government programs
 1 part ordinary voters very unhappy
about the economy and mad at
whomever in power.
2010 Mid Term Elections
Republicans win back House with lots of
new very conservative Republicans
Democrats keep the Senate, but majority
goes from 59-41 to 53-47
People think Obama is dead duck
But, gets major legislative wins in 2011
and economy starts to slowly rebound
Current Political Climate
 Moderate elected officials have become scarce.
 Reasons
 Conservative Republicans control Republican
Party
 Little willingness to compromise with Obama or
Democrats
 Hard to get compromise or pass laws.
 Public perception of Congress at all-time low
Current Congress Can’t Get Laws
Passed
Congress Unpopular
2012 Elections
Obama won easily in the electoral college
in 2008
Election 2012
Despite high unemployment and tepid
growth, Obama has a slight lead in his
efforts toward reelection
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpsrv/special/politics/election-map2012/president/
Some Basic Election Facts
It takes 270 electoral votes to win
All but two state are winner-take-all (Maine
and Nebraska aren’t)
The first major events of the general
election will be the conventions.
Republicans are in Tampa, Aug. 27-30
Democrats are in Charlotte, NC., Sept. 3-6
Debates: 10/3, 10/16, 10/22
Election Day: Nov. 6th
Core Election Issues
Core Issues:
 Economy/jobs
 Budget Deficit and spending priorities
 Foreign Policy
 Health Care
 Environment
Other Factors:
 Who do you trust?
 Who do you like?
 Who understands my issues and concerns?
It’s the Economy, Stupid
 Economy (or perceptions
of it by voters) is the
biggest factor in the
reelection of a sitting
president
 Unemployment is at
8.3%, which is very high.
 Economic growth is slow
 Thus, Obama wants to
make the election about
something other than a
referendum on the
current state of the
economy.
Some Economic Facts
Unemployment. Historically high, but
gone down in last 4 years.
Gross Domestic Product
 GDP growth defines whether we have a recession or
economic growth. We have been out of recession for
two years.
Stock Market
 The stock market is another way that people
keep score. At the beginning of the recession,
the stock market tanked. Since then it has come
back to about where it was.
 This means that people have recovered losses,
but not had any gain compared to mid-2008
 http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/djia20
00.html
Budge Deficit
We have been running big budget deficits
for the last 7 years.
Reasons:
War in Iraq and Afghanistan
Less tax revenue
Bush tax cuts
Less income being earned
More spending to get us out of recessions
Stimulus package
More people needing public aid
Deficits as % of GDP
Over the Years
Distrust Political Economic rhetoric
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0723/the-u-s-economic-policy-debate-is-asham.html