Transcript Global Financial Crisis (end 2008)

Latin American Panel
15-16 October 2009
Vina Del Mar, Chile
Peter M. Swift
INTERTANKO Overview
Council : 11 November 2009, London
Membership & Finances
Executive Committee Elections
Organisational Review
Greenhouse Gas Emissions (& Virtual Arrival)
Piracy
Pilotage
Marine Issues:
STS; MSDS; Lifeboat Safety
Criminalization / Fair Treatment
Facilitation Payments
EU Issues:
“0.1% Sulphur at Berth”; “Mutual Recognition”
Financial Crisis / Markets
INTERTANKO Overview
US Issues:
• Massachusetts Lawsuit
• EPA Vessel General Permit
• CARB Emission Standards
Committee Reports:
• Human Element: STCW Revision, E-TOTS
• Environmental Agenda
IACS – EU Competition Law clearance
Other Business
INTERTANKO's Environmental Agenda
• Air emissions
- Green House Gases
- Exhaust Gas emissions (Annex VI & its revisions)
- VOC emissions
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Spill Prevention and Response Planning
Ballast Water management
Biofouling
Antifouling systems
Ship Recycling
Port Reception Facilities (adequacy & affordability)
Waste management (onboard and ashore)
Radiated Noise pollution
Cetacean strikes
ECA Proposed for North America
200 nm
200 nm
Criminalisation – an update
• Captain Mangouras (“Prestige”- Spain) :
European Court of Human Rights
• “Hebei Spirit” (South Korea)
• “Tosa” case (NYK VLCC – Taiwan)
• “Full City” (COSCO Bulk carrier – Southern
Norway)
Industry-wide support for adherence to the IMOILO Guidelines on the Fair Treatment of
Seafarers in the event of a Maritime Accident;
and growing support for strengthening of same.
Facilitation Payments
In order to trade efficiently (smoothly) Facilitation Payments are
frequently made to Authorities, Pilots, Terminal Officials, Inspectors,
and more
But
Owners are expected to warrant that no bribes (and in some
cases also no facilitation payments) will be paid during the
performance of the contract and that owners are obliged to
indemnify charterers from all consequences if any such payments
are made.
DocCom is developing model clauses, e.g. for Voyage Charters:
….. any waiting time caused by the owners refusal to pay a
facilitation payment or bribe shall count as laytime or if on demurrage
time on demurrage, even if the vessel formally lacks any local
certificates, clearances or there are any other … circumstances or
formalities that ordinarily could prevent laytime from starting, if the
reason the owners do not have such approval etc. is because owner
has refused a facilitation payment or bribe.
EU Issues
EU Directive 2005/33/EC requiring use of 0.1%
Sulphur Marine Fuel at Berth
1 January 2010 Deadline
- (Not aligned to MARPOL Annex VI)
Issues arising:
Safety & technical ; 3 grades of fuel ; Supply
(logistics)
INTERTANKO-OCIMF Position:
• Delay in implementation (6 or 12 months) but subject
to verifying that compliance measures have been
initiated
• Port State Control officials to be properly primed
Position is supported by class societies and insurers
EU Issues
“Mutual Recognition”
Regulation (EC) 391/2009 on common rules and standards for
ship inspection and survey organisations states in its Article 10
i.a. that “Recognised organisations shall, in appropriate cases, agree
on the technical and procedural conditions under which they will
mutually recognise the class certificates for materials, equipment and
components based on equivalent standards, taking the most
demanding and rigorous standards as the reference.”
• Championed by European Equipment Manufacturers claiming cost
savings will result
• Opposed by all IACS members individually – on basis of safety and
sovereignty, as well as consequential liability exposures
• Owners have mostly sided with class societies – citing in particular
safety implications
• Contractual/commercial get-out clauses currently under review
Global Financial Crisis
Markets
Markets
INTERTANKO’s Anti-Trust/Competition
law Compliance Statement
INTERTANKO’s policy is to be firmly committed to
maintaining a fair and competitive environment in the world
tanker trade, and to adhering to all applicable laws which
regulate INTERTANKO’s and its members’ activities in these
markets. These laws include the anti-trust/competition laws
which the United States, the European Union and many
nations of the world have adopted to preserve the free
enterprise system, promote competition and protect the
public from monopolistic and other restrictive trade
practices. INTERTANKO’s activities will be conducted in
compliance with its Anti-trust/Competition Law Guidelines.
Global Financial Crisis (end 2008)
Fleet Development & Seaborne Oil Trade
Oil tanker fleet
Seaborne oil trade
bn tonne miles
m dwt
450
Projected
400
Actual
12,500
350
???
Oil products
Crude oil
10,000
300
7,500
250
200
5,000
150
100
2,500
50
Source: INTERTANKO, Fearnleys
Source: INTERTANKO, Fearnleys
P10
06
P08
04
02
00
98
96
94
92
90
88
86
84
82
80
78
76
74
0
72
2014
2010
2012
2008
2004
2006
2000
2002
1998
1996
1992
1994
1988
1990
1986
1982
1984
1978
1980
1974
1976
1970
1972
1968
0
Global Financial Crisis (end 2008)
Tanker Fleet Removals
m dwt
30
Conversions
Scrapping
24
?
18
12
6
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
0
Conversions
2005
Small
2
Aframax 0
Suezmax 0
VLCC
2
2006
0
4
6
9
2007
13
19
13
15
2008
23
14
9
30
2009
?
Source: INTERTANKO
Global Financial Crisis (end 2008)
Credit crunch – liquidity; financing;
exposures; covenants & more….
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Oil prices ?
Steel prices ?
Newbuild / scrap prices ?
Economic slowdown (or meltdown !) ?
Green agenda slowdown ?
Markets ?
Other ?
Global Financial Crisis (end 2009)
• Demand : World trade & by sector
• Supply : Ships on Order & Fleet development
• Tanker market
• Emerging opportunities
• Shipbuilding capacity
6.5
12
5.5
8
4.5
4
3.5
0
2.5
-4
1.5
-8
0.5
-12
-0.5
-16
-1.5
Source: Clarksons (September 2009)
OECD World
Imports of Goods
GDP % y-y
16
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
World Imports% y-y
World Trade & GDP
IMF GDP
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
% change (year on year)
World Oil Demand vs. GDP
6
5
4
3
2
1
IMF GDP
0
Oil Demand
-1
-2
-3
-4
Source: Clarksons (September 2009)
Seaborne Crude Imports
12
440,000
10
seaborne
imports
400,000
8
growth
360,000
6
kmt
320,000
4
280,000
2
240,000
0
200,000
-2
160,000
120,000
-4
80,000
-6
40,000
-8
Source: Clarksons (September 2009)
2009-Q1
2008-Q3
2008-Q1
2007-Q3
2007-Q1
2006-Q3
2006-Q1
2005-Q3
2005-Q1
2004-Q3
2004-Q1
2003-Q3
-10
2003-Q1
0
y-o-y % change
480,000
Total Oil Products Imports
220,000
15
200,000
products
imports
12
180,000
160,000
120,000
6
100,000
80,000
3
60,000
40,000
0
20,000
Source: Clarksons (September 2009)
2009-Q1
2008-Q3
2008-Q1
2007-Q3
2007-Q1
2006-Q3
2006-Q1
2005-Q3
2005-Q1
2004-Q3
2004-Q1
-3
2003-Q3
0
2003-Q1
kmt
140,000
y-o-y % change
9
growth
Green Shoots of Recovery ?
CRUDE Production
(mbd)
2008
2009
2010
OPEC
31.27
29.02
29.19
Brazil
2.40
2.60
2.83
Canada
3.35
3.38
3.43
The United States
8.51
8.92
9.00
Azerbaijan
0.88
1.04
1.18
Kazakhstan
1.43
1.51
1.66
Russia
9.79
9.78
9.78
Mexico
3.19
2.93
2.69
North Sea
5.20
4.90
4.54
NON-OPEC (Selected)
Demand increases ?
More long-haul crude; more refinery imbalances
(and emerging opportunities ?)
Orderbook Development
400
gross tonnage (millions)
350
300
250
other
gas
200
container
bulker
150
tanker
100
50
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 now
Source: Clarksons (September 2009)
Tanker Fleet Development
550
500
10-24 tanker
handy
MR
Panamax
Aframax
Suezmax
VLCC
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
Source: Clarksons (September 2009)
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
0
1972
50
1970
deadweight (million)
450
Orderbook by ship type
(as % existing fleet)
70
percentage of capacity
60
64
50
40
41
30
33
33
20
15
10
0
Tanker
Chemical
Source: Clarksons (September 2009)
Bulk carrier
Container ship
LPG carrier
Tanker sales for demolition
and VLCC freight rate
USD / day
m dwt
30
VLCCs sales for demolition
100,000
<200,000 dwt sales for demolition**
VLCC freight rate***
24
80,000
18
60,000
12
40,000
6
20,000
0
0
85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09*
Source: INTERTANKO
* Until week ending 4 September
** Sales for demolition until 4 September
*** Clarkson Freight rate AG-Japan week ending 4 September
Average tanker freight rates
(based on Baltic Exchange rates)
USD/day
100,000
VLCC AG-Japan, 250,000 ts
90,000
Suezmax Wafr-US 130,000 ts
Aframax N Sea-UKCont, 80,000 ts
80,000
Product Caribs-US, 38,000 ts
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
2001
2002
Source: Baltic Exchange/INTERTANKO
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
8m09
Other market influences ?
•
Strength and timing of the “financial recovery”
•
Future energy prices
•
The elasticity of demand to energy prices (and
taxes)
•
Reactions to “Global warming” / Outcomes
from UNFCCC-COP15
•
Government interventions
Lower Freight Rates & Fleet surpluses
(in ALL sectors – not just tankers)
Implications ?
• Challenge to maintain quality and standards
• Challenge to meet the issues of the day
• and government interventions ?
Emerging opportunities
Increasing offshore production
New maritime opportunities to support
Exploration, Production, Storage and Transportation
Caspian Sea
Gulf of Mexico
Qatar
Nigeria
Brazil
Angola
NW Australia
Source: Offshore Magazine (2008; 2009); Rigzone
Emerging opportunities
Future Ice Operations – beyond the Baltic
Arctic Circle
*USGS study
Canada
Gas
West
Greenland
Barents
TimanSea
Pechora
19%
Others
4%
4%
VestfordHelgeland
12% North
East
SlopeGreenland
11%
6%
Greenland
(Denmark)
West
Siberia
44%
East
Greenland
27%
East
Greenland
N Chukchi
E Siberia
Sea
Norway
Sweden
Finland
TimanOthers
Pechora
6%
4%
North
Slope
16%
N Slope
Beaufort
Iceland
Oil & NGL
VestfordHelgeland
8%
USA
West
Siberia
39%
Barents Sea
N Kara
Sea
Pechor
a Sea
Laptev
Sea
S Kara
Sea
Basin include in USGS study
Russia
Basin excluded
Source: BP
Shipbuilding output and forecast
m cgt
70
9
14%
Available capacity
Orderbook
Historical deliveries
60
50
40
26
38%
48
76%
26
30
62
95%
67
99%
3
0
2013
2014
55
20
26
31
33
42
38
26
10
15
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
Source: Worldyards/INTERTANKO Aug 09
2009
2010
2011
2012
Shipbuilding output potential
m cgt
70
Availability small
60
Availability big
Orderbook small
50
Orderbook big
Deliveries small
40
Deliveries big
30
20
10
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Worldwide estimates in m cgt
- small and big ships (Aug 09)
Source: Worldyards/INTERTANKO Aug 09
2014
Shipyard output potential - surplus
Implications ?
• Distressed sales / lower prices
• Quality and standards maintained or weakened
• Pressure on suppliers and sub-contractors
• Greater customer focus & customisation
• and government interventions ?
Muchas Gracias
Muchas Gracias
Thank you
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