Transcript ICT market development in Lithuania

ICT market development in Lithuania:
current status and future prospects
Diana Korsakaitė
Director of Strategy Department
Communications Regulatory Authority
16 May, 2006, Vilnius
1p
ICT Market Development:
Legal Aspects
Law on Legal
Protection of
Personal data
Law
on
the
National Radio
and Television
Law
on
Provision of
Information to
the Public
Control of the off-the-record
information in computer networks
of public usage and rules of
distribution of limited public
information
(Government
Resolution)
Conceptual Framework of the
National Information Society
Development
of
Lithuania
(Government Resolution)
European
Convention on
Transfrontier
Television
Strategic Plan of
the Development of
Information Society
in Lithuania
(Government
Resolution)
Order of Director of the RRT
Concerning the Approval of the
Rules for Allocating and Using
of
Radio
Frequencies
/
Channels
Law on
Electronic
Signature
Law on Radio
Communications
(no longer in
force)
…
Law on
Communications (no
longer in force)
1995
“Television without
Frontiers” Directive
89/552/EC (amended by
Directive 97/36/EC on 30
June 1997)
1996
Law on
Telecommunications (no
longer in force)
1997
Directive
1999/93/EC on
Electronic
Signature
1998
1999
Strategy for the Assignment
of Radio Frequencies to
Broadcasting and
Transmission of Radio and
Television Broadcasts
(Government Resolution)
Law (revised) on
Telecommunications (no
longer in force)
2000
Directive 2000/31/EC
on Electronic
Commerce
2001
2002
2003
Order of Minister of Economy
regarding the regulation of
provision of some services of New regulatory
information society, especially of framework in EU
electronic commerce, in internal
market
2p
ICT Market Development:
Legal Aspects
Order of Director of the RRT on
Allocation of UMTS Frequencies /
Channels
Law concerning
the ratification of
the
Convention
Model of
Order of Director of
on
Electronic
Implementation of
RRT
on
Digital
Crimes
Terrestrial
Television
Strategy of the
Digital Television in
Development of Development Plan
Lithuania (Government
Informational
Resolution)
Society of Lithuania
(Government
Law on Electronic
Resolution)
Communications
Strategic Plan for the
Assignment of Radio
Frequencies to Broadcasting
and Transmission of Radio
and Television Broadcasts
2003
National Radio
Frequency Allocation
Table (Government
Resolution)
2004
2005
Order of Director of the
RRT
Concerning
the
Approval of the Plan of
Development
of Radio
Communications in 3,410
– 3,800 MHz Frequencies
(Channels) Bandwith
Law on Services
of Information
Society
Law on Amendment of
Republic of Lithuania Law
on Provision of
Information to the Public
In the nearest
future
3p
ICT Market Development:
General Outlook
European context:
• ICT represents 6-8% of GDP in EU, but it determines
• EU productivity’s growth by 40% and
• EU GDP’s growth by 25 %.
Lithuanian context:
• ICT represents 8,72 % of Lithuanian GDP and approximates or even
exceeds other traditionally important sectors
10.0%
8.72%
Trends are the same
as in other EU
Member States
7.70%
7.5%
5.80%
8.06%
4.40%
5.0%
3.80%
2.5%
0.10% 0.10%
0.70% 0.50%
0.0%
Agriculture, forestry, hunting
Fishery
Mining and quarrying
Electricity, gas and w ater
supply
ICT
2000
2004
4p
ICT Market Development:
General Outlook
 1 Jan 2003 - electronic market liberalization de jure
 Leading operators’ market shares continue to decline and a steady
growth of new market players’ market shares indicates decreased
market power of the incumbent operators
 Lithuania was one of the first EU countries to refuse the licensing
system and to move to the general authorization system in the
telecommunication sector
 Fully implemented fixed and mobile number portability and
carrier selection and pre-selection stimulates competition as well
 Radio spectrum policy and effective management boosts
successful development of wireless technologies
Low administrative charges have created preconditions for the
lowest service prices on the retail market as ITU indicates
5p
ICT Market Development:
General Outlook
Electronic communication market is a fast developing sector, whose
main driving forces are competition, general authorization regime and
technological changes
17
14,53
12,75
11,65
13
13,62
9
8,09
10,91
5
5,16
5,08
Ist half
2004
II half 2004
1
I half 2005 II half 2005
GDP grow th, %
Sector's grow th, %
Growth of Lithuania’s GDP and electronic
communications sector (comparing with the
corresponding time period of the previous
year)
 Even though the prices of
communication services have been falling
down the growth of the sector is
substantial
 Electronic communications market’s
share within Lithuania’s GDP structure in
average amounted to 3,5 %.
 Lithuania’s electronic communications
market grew by 11.9 % in 2005
(comparing with 2004) and amounted
2.391 billion LTL in 2004*
* Revenues from data transmission, cable TV, MMDS, radio and
TV transmission and cable radio are not included
Source: Statistics Lithuania, RRT
6p
ICT Market Development:
General Outlook
Investments
Market Structure
Electronic communications sector value
and infrastructure investment dynamics
in 2000-2005, LTL million
800
3000
737
700
2516
671
Distribution of 2003–2005 revenues
according to the separate electronic
communications sector markets, %
2nd half of 2005
16,77
46,83
9,25
21,37
1st half of 2005
17,87
46,29
7,83
21,88
2500
600
2029
2137
2000
500
400
2nd half of 2004
20,74
1st half of 2004
21,91
50,80
8,08
19,17
6,9
18,3
6,19
17,92
5,71
18,03
1500
387
310
300
2771000
273
51,67
200
500
100
0
Y 2005
Y 2004
Y 2003
Y 2002
Y 2001
Y 2000
0
Total revenues from electronic communications
market
Investment into the electronic communications
infrastructure
Source: RRT
24,21
2nd half of 2003
50,50
26,66
1st half of 2003
0%
20%
Fixed telephone communication
Leased lines
Audiovisual services
Data transmission
48,23
40%
60%
80%
100%
Mobile telephone communication
Internet access
Netw orks interconnection
Source: RRT
7p
Mobile Communications Segment:
a Success Story
"The direct economic contribution of industries using the radio spectrum is already
considerable, between 1 and 2% of national GDP in the EU,…" said Viviane Reding, DG InfSo.
In 2004-2005 growth of mobile communications penetration of in Lithuania was the fastest
among all the EU Member States
 Penetration of mobile communication was the highest in the world in December 2005
Countries with highest penetration rates
in the world as of December of 2005
138.53%
Lithuania
175
153,4
Mobile communication revenues in
2002-2005, mln.LT
700
610
600
150
131.95%
Luxembourg
Mobile communication penetration
growth in Lithuania in 2002-2005, %
119,2
Bahrein
116.49%
Macau
116.39%
100%
25
127,7
103,1
28,5
2003,
2H
2004,
1H
2004,
2H
2005,
1H
475
300
200
100
0
2001, 2002, 2003, 2003, 2004, 2004, 2005, 2005,
2H
2H
1H
2H
1H
2H
1H
2H
112.26%
110%
56,0
75,0
117.16%
50
47,6
54,1
125.12%
Italy
Hong Kong
75
528
566
400
79,9
63,0
61,0
127.80%
Israel
500
99,9
100
128.04%
Netherlands
Cyprus
125
89,2
131.10%
Barbados
527
559
120%
130%
Source: Informa Telecoms & Media.
140%
0
2003,
1H
2005,
2H
Penetration against the active subscribers
Penetration against all the subscribers
Source: RRT
Source: RRT
8p
Mobile Communications Segment:
a Success Story
… and all that is just 10 years’ story …
2004-10
1995-03
1995-10
2000-05
1998-09
1994-10 1995-05
2001-10
2002-10
2001-02
2002-09
2002-07
2001-01
2003-12
2005-09
2005-02
2005-09
2003-12
2005-03
2004-07
2005-04
2006
DCS 1800
NMT
3G trial
Bite GSM
DCS 1800
GSM 900
GSM 900
Omnitel
Bite GSM
3G
GSM 900
Omnitel
MMDS
Tele2
DCS 1800
MMDS
3G
HDTV trial
TV via
mobile
FWA
3G
GPRS
services
Tele2
Commercial
GSM services
Commercial
GSM services
Commercial
GSM services
Omnitel
Bite GSM
Tele2
GPRS
services
GPRS
flat rate
GPRS
services
EDGE
services
GPRS
flat rate
MMS
services
MMS
services
Mobile
internet
EGDE
services
Mobile
internet
Live TV
broadca
sting
Live TV
broadca
sting
9p
Mobile Communications Segment:
a Success Story
… having a clear tendency of going mobile …
3. Data is going mobile
1. Users are going mobile
140
100%
120
80%
100
Other
LL
Fiber optic
80
60
40
20
0
2000 01
01
2001 01
01
2002 01
01
2003 01
01
2004 01
01
Mobile telephony penetration
2005 01
01
2005 07
01
60%
WLA
LAN
CaTV
40%
xDSL
Dial - up
20%
Mobile
Fixed telephony penetration
2. Voice is going mobile
0%
2003 07 01
2004 07 01
2005 01 01
2005 07 01
200000
1200
175000
1000
150000
Other
800
LL
125000
Fiber optic
600
100000
400
75000
200
50000
WLA
LAN
CaTV
0
2003 I-II Q
xDSL
25000
2003 III-IV
Q
2004 I Q
2004 II Q
Fixed
2004 III Q
Mobile
2004 IV Q
2005 I Q
2005 II Q
10 p
0
2003 07- 2004 01- 2004 04- 2004 07- 2004 10- 2005 01- 2005 04- 2005 0701
01
01
01
01
01
01
01
Mobile Communications Segment:
a Success Story
4. Media is going mobile
11 p
Mobile Communications Segment:
a Success Story
Let’s sum up
Mobile market indicators 2004 in comparison to 2003
2,6
8,52
57,68
31,99
54,68
18,4
6,8
times
%
%
%
%
times
times
ARPU
# of mobile
Mobile
operators
business
and services revenues,
providers
LTL
(from 3 to 8)
# of mobile
subscribers
Initiated
traffic, min.
SMS,
units
MMS,
units
# of GPRS
subscribers
32%
12 p
Mobile Communications Segment:
a Success Story to be Continued
 UMTS development:
In beginning of 2006, UAB „Omnitel”, UAB „Bitė Lietuva” ir UAB „Tele2” were
provided with a right to use radio frequencies in the UMTS bandwidth to build
UMTS networks
3G services are provided in the market since I quarter of 2006.
By now, 3G communication is provided in 8 cities and cover ~25 % of Lithuanian population;
In 2007, 3G will be available to more than 50 % of Lithuanian population, and in 2008 – 75 %.
The new services being offered by 3G operators include high speed internet
access, information services, news, video messaging or conversations, games
and music downloads
Cheaper and smaller handsets for 3G available on the market are expected to be
significant drivers of 3G take-up
 Wireless broadband services in 3,5 GHz, 10 GHz, 26 GHZ, 28 GHz :
Plan for development of 3,5 GHz was publicly consulted, and soon a relevant
order will be issued;
In 2005, 2 operators had permissions to make activities in 3,5 GHz and 2 operators - in 10,5
GHz;
4 operators had permissions to make activities in 26 GHz.
13 p
Fixed Communication Segment:
In Search for New Opportunities
• The number of fixed telephone subscribers is reducing
• The subscribers’ structure remains sufficiently stable – residential users
form more than 90 %
Fixed telephone communication
Fixed telephone communication
penetration dynamics in 2001–2005, % market revenue dynamics, 1998-2005,
LTL thousand
70%
56,9%
57,3%
56,0%
54,7%
53,9%
54,0%
Market share of new entrants,
2004-2005, %
800
6%
50%
200
27,0%
23,9%
23,9%
T he EU-25
T he EU-15
T he EU-10
Lithuania
6,45%
6,31%
6,25%
5,50%
5,65%
5,02%
0%
0
Jan-04 Jan-05
4,63%
23,5%
10%
Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03
2%
3,84%
32,0%
443,65
35,4%
462,60
34,0% 33,1%
4%
515,30
400
36,2%
804,70
38,2%
45,0%
658,20
30%
38,9%
47,3% 46,5%
809,40
39,4%
600
48,6%
648,00
52,5%
619,00
51,6%
1998* 1999* 2000* 2001* 2002* 2003 2004 2005
2004, 1 2004, 2 2004, 3 2004, 4 2005, 1 2005, 2 2005, 3 2005, 4
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Source: RRT
Source: RRT
Oct-05
Sources: ANACOM, ITU, Regulatel, RRT.
14 p
Fixed Communication Segment:
In Search for New Opportunities
2003
1996
1998
1998
1999 1999
2000
ISDN
Internet dialup
Centrex
2003
WLAN
2005
2005
DVBT
broadcasting:
license
MPLS VPN
over IP
“Takas”
PSTN network
2002
xDSL
Privatization
Frame Relay
2001
ATM
Live reality broadcasting
over IP – dedicated to
special projects
Since
1896
15 p
Internet Access Segment
as a Step Into Broadband
Internet access market is one of the fastest growing sectors
and is attractive for business in a long term perspective
Internet access service providers
market shares according to the
revenue in 2003-2005, per cent
Internet penetration dynamics in
2003-2005, %
Active market entities, 2005
40
30
31,7
100%
80%
140
2003
2004
2005
115
120
20
60%
98
18,6
100
40%
14,9
10
80
7,9
2,7
60
4,7
20%
60
0
40
1st half
of 2003
2nd half
of 2003
1st half 2nd half
of 2004 of 2004
1st half
of 2005
2nd half
of 2005
Penetration per 100 inhabitants
40
18
0%
24
20
8 10 10
1st half 2nd 1st half 2nd 1st half 2nd
of
half of
of
half of
of
half of
2003
2003 2004
2004 2005
2005
111515
0
Fiksuotas ryšys
Source: RRT
Source: RRT
Judrusis ryšys
Skirtosios linijos Interneto prieiga
Omnitel
Bitė Lietuva
Lietuvos Telekomas
Others
Source: RRT
16 p
Internet Access Segment
as a Step Into Broadband
A significant part of Lithuanian territory is covered by EDGE networks
UAB „Omnitel“ EDGE network, 2005
UAB „Bitė Lietuva“ EDGE network, 2005
Source: www.omnitel.lt
Source: www.bite.lt
17 p
Broadband Communications Segment:
a New Star
Each year the broadband communication penetration in Lithuania nearly
doubles (during 2005 the number of broadband Internet access subscribers
grew by 81.4 %)
Broadband communication penetration
dynamics in 2003-2005, %
The ten world’s countries with fastest growing
broadband penetration, as of 1st Q, 2005
Mexico
New Zealand
Venezuela
10.00%
Australia
6.90%
8.00%
Slovenia
5.00%
6.00%
3.75%
4.00%
2.00%
2.56%
1.11%
Lithuania
Czech Republic
1.94%
Poland
Thailand
0.00%
1st half 2nd half 1st half 2nd half 1st half 2nd half
of 2003 of 2003 of 2004 of 2004 of 2005 of 2005
Turkey
0
Source: RRT
10
20
30
40
50
Source: World Broadband Statistics Q1 2005 // Point
Topic Ltd., 2005.
18 p
Broadband Communications Segment:
a New Star
At the end of 2005 the broadband communication, according to its provision
feasibilities was available to the absolute majority of Lithuania’s residents and
organizations.
Broadband penetration, 144 kbps and more
2004
2005
Source: RRT
19 p
Broadband Communications Segment:
a New Star
Competition between technologies in Lithuania in the broadband
communications market is the most intense in the whole EU
Greece
Germany
Cyprus
Italy
France
Luxembourg
Slovakia
Finland
Spain
Ireland
The UK
Poland
Hungary
Sweden
Slovenia
Denmark
Belgium
Netherlands
Malta
Latvia
Portugal
Austria
Estonia
Czech Republic
Lithuania
2
3
4
6
6
11
Distribution of subscribers against the
broadband technologies in Lithuania 2005, %
18
21
23
24
28
31
35
35
37
37
38
40
42
43
43
44
LAN
20,21%
xDSL
44,76%
Other
Leased
0,04%
lines
0,61%
Cable TV
netw orks
21,19%
Optical
fibre
cables
5,53%
Wireless
communica
tion
netw orks
7,66%
52
56
57
0
25
50
Other technologies
75
100
xDSL
Source: European Electronic Communications
Regulation and Markets 2005 (11th Report),
European Commission, Brussels, 2006.
Source: RRT
20 p
Audiovisual Communications Segment:
Major Changes Ahead
1989
2001
2002
2003
Internet via
cable modem
First Cable TV
network
Since 1945
Terrestrial
broadcasting
network
2004
2004
Digital
broadcasting
Fixed IPtelephony
Internet via
broadcasting
network
Fixed
telephony
21 p
Audiovisual Communications Segment:
Major Changes Ahead
 In 2003 first transmissions in DVB-T format started by LRTC;
 In 2005, digital TV station broadcasted 5 TV programs in Vilnius;
In 2005, DVBT transmission licenses were distributed and two operators have
commenced to develop digital TV infrastructure:
Before 2006 June 30, digital TV transmitters will be installed in Vilnius,
Before 2007 December 31, digital TV transmitters will be installed in five largest
cities;
Before start-2009, at least one digital TV network will cover not less than 95% of
the territory of Lithuania.
Starting from 2012 – a gradual switch-off of the analogue TV shall be
commenced in Lithuania
22 p
Audiovisual Communications Segment:
Major Changes Ahead
Envisaged coverage by digital TV (DVB-T) networks
LRTC networks
Lietuvos telekomas’
networks
23 p
Instead of Conclusions
 ICT sector in Lithuania if fully open;
 ICT market trends:
Going to data
Going to wireless and mobile
Going to converged networks and services
Going to accessibility and affordability to everyone
ICT market prospects:
New technologies already on their way will make tremendous shifts in the established market
structure
Liberal view with regard to experimental use of certain bands for demanding entities allow to check
possibilities to use implement new technologies
Regulatory issues:
Alteration of the whole regulatory system to the changes in the sector
Apropos pro-/re- action to new threats in the electronic medium
Gradual introduction of spectrum trading
Wise management of radio resources: relevant spectrum ranges for new – more efficient –
technologies to be ready timely without delay
24 p
Thank you
[email protected]
+370 5 210 5688
25 p
Dažnių valdymas
NELICENCIJUOJAMI DAŽNIAI
LICENCIJUOJAMI DAŽNIAI
HAPS
48.2
47.2
43.5
40.5
24.5
26.5
27.5
29.5
17.3
17.1
10.66
10.15
5.725
5.15
3.8
3.41
2.484
2.4
GHz
2,4-2,4835 RLAN plačiai panaudojami
17,1-17,3 RLAN praktiškai nenaudojama
3,41-3,6
aktyviai naudojami
24,5-26,5 panaudojama 78 %
3,6-3,8
rezervuota, 2006 bus parengta BFWA
27,5-29,5 panaudojama 43 %
5,15-5,725 RLAN pilnai neišnaudojamas
40,5-43,5 nenaudojama
10,15-10,66 panaudojama 75 %
Vis dar galimas efektyvesnis radijo spektro panaudojimas.
26 p
Dažnių valdymas
Žemesnių dažnių spektro dalis vis dar išlieka užimta senesnių ir mažiau efektyvių technologijų. Tuo tarpu
naujoms technologijoms prieinama tik aukštesnių dažnių sritis, kurios įsisavinimui reikalingi didesni
ištekliai.
Rezervuota UMTS TDD
2200
2170
2110
2010
2025
1980
1900
1920
Reservuota palydovinio ryšio reikmėms
2690
Papildomi dažniai plėtrai
Nuo 2012 m. bus
skirtas IMT-2000 ir
techniškai
suderinamoms
judriojo ryšio
technologijoms
2500
Konkursai 2006 m.
Į žymią radijo spektro dalį, įskaitant maždaug trečdalį žemiau 3 GHz esančio spektro, kuris geriausiai
tinka antžeminėms ryšių sistemoms, teisės potencialiai gali tapti perleidžiamomis iki 2010 metų.
27 p