Transcript “Balistic” Lithuania from Baltic: ICT Marke trends 1995-2002

Ballistic Lithuania
from Baltic:
ICT Market trends
1995-2002
• INFOBALT’2002, VILNIUS, LITHUANIA
• LEAGUE OF INVESTORS, 22 October 2002
1
Romualdas Krukauskas
Vice President of association
INFOBALT
INFOBALT’2002, VILNIUS, LITHUANIA
LEAGUE OF INVESTORS, 22 October 2002
2
BALTIKUM-FORUM
MÜNCHEN, 15. Oktober 2002
3
5 000 BC - Beginning of Baltic Culture
1009 - First use of the Name
“LIETUVA”- Lithuania - Litauen
(Quedlinburg Analen, in Deutschland)
1387 - Lithuania adopted Christianity
1795 - Lithuania as part of Russia
1918 - 1940 - Independent Lithuania
1940 - 1990 Lithuania as part of USSR
4
1990 - 2002 - Independent Lithuania
1. Association INFOBALT’02
=
Union of 155 companies
•
2. Traide fair
INFOBALT’XX and conference in
Vilnius
=
Baltic CeBIT’XX (from 1994)
5
INFOBALT EXIBITIONS IN 1994 – 2001
EXIBITORS
SQUARE METRES
12500
11300
10520
10500
10590
7044
Parodos dalyviai
5900
Parodos plotas
3500
64
1994
109
1995
146
1996
212
1997
240
1998
198
1999
199
2000
195
2001
6
INFOBALT 2002
INFORMATION SOCIETY WEEK
21-26 October, 2002, Vilnius
International conference
Information Society 2002 and League of Investors
21-22 October, 2002, Vilnius
International exhibition of information society
technology Infobalt’ 2002
23-26 October, 2002, Vilnius
• THANKS ALL OF YOU FOR COOPERATION !
7
www.infobalt.lt
SYSTEMS’2002
• SYSTEMS’2001 - 2156 EXIBITORS
• SYSTEMS’2002 - 1600 EXIBITORRS
• INFOBALT’2001
- 195 EXIBITORS
• INFOBALT’2002
- 201 EXIBITORS
8
1. The mission of the INFOBALT
is to represent and defend the
interests of the IST industry in
Lithuania and abroad
Aiming to fulfil this mission, the INFOBALT
pursues creation of optimally favourable
conditions for the growth of the IST industry,
which would be of benefit to the Lithuanian
population, public sector and business world in
the improvement of the quality of life.
•
www.infobalt.lt
9
WWW.INFOBALT.LT
•
STRUCTURE
• 1. Association INFOBALT
• 2. Fund of Association INFOBALT for
Development of Information Society in
Lithuania
• 3. Company INFOBALT CENTRAS
• 4. INFOBALT Copyright Agency
10
BALLISTIC LITHUANIA
The Wall Street Journal published its
“Index for Economic Freedom”, an
economic ranking of nations. Lithuania,
which was among top scorers, was
heralded for having “the most improved
economy in the history of the index”.
Investment bank Goldman Sachs called
Lithuania the “Ballistic Baltic” in a
recent report - it is a rising star and a
launch pad to profitable growth.
11
BALLISTIC LITHUANIA
 Lithuania’s economy
is the fastest growing
economy in Central and
Eastern Europe (according
to analysis made by
Hansabank Markets and
LandesBank Kiel)
12
BALLISTIC LITHUANIA
 GDP rose by 5.7% in
2001 and is projected to
rise an annual 5.4 % - in
2002
13
WWW.LDA.LT
•
14
`
15
BALLISTIC LITHUANIA
annual inflation rate
fluctuates
at about 0.1% - 0.2%
16
17
BALLISTIC LITHUANIA
17% industry growth in 2001, compared to 2000
retail sales increased by 14% in the seven months of 2002,
compared to the same period of the previous year
cumulative FDI has been increasing fastest in Central and Eastern
Europe and is currently USD 3.5 billion, which makes around 21%
of GDP
Lithuania is rapidly becoming an export economy, exports now
make 38% of GDP and are continuing to grow; export volumes
totalled USD 5.2 billion in 2001.
over 80% of the economy is already in the private hands
the banking system is 100% private and 90%-owned by major
Western banks
18
LITHUANIA'S ICT MARKET IN 1995-2001
IT
CT
Growth of ITT market in Lithuania in 1994-2000, USD million
1227,6
1400
1024
mln. US dollars
1200
1000
807,2
800
600
952,6
618,5
756
479,3
392
400
200
780,2
259,4
312,3
568,7
546,5
239,1
233,71
268
1998
1999
2000
412,4
132,6
167
206,1
1995
1996
1997
325
0
192001
SOURCE: INFOBALT (no official public data available)
Europe's and Lithuania's IT market development:
percentage growth calculated
on market values 1995-2001
LithuaniaIT
Europe IT
60
Annual changes %
50
53,1
40
35,3
30
25,9
21,3
20
10
6,6
8,6
16
9,4
-10
1996/95
1997/96
14,7
12
4
0
1995/94
11,4
1998/97
-2,3
1999/98
2000/99
2001/00
Source: EITO'XX, INFOBALT'XX estimation (no official public statistics exist)
20
Europe's and Lithuania's Communic. Market
development: percentage growth calculated on
market values 1995-2001
Lithuania T
Europe T
60
Annual changes %
50
40
32,1
30
26
20,4
20
10
0
6,6
•
1995/94
-10
38,3
37,9
1996/95
8,6
1997/96
15,4
12,7
14,7
6,8
1998/97
-4,1
1999/98
2000/99
2001/00
Source: EITO'99, INFOBALT'99 estimation (no official public statistics exist)
21
ICT Market growth (%) in CEEC, Russia (1997-999) and
in Lithuania (1997-2001)
40
Czech
Rep
Estonia
LITHUANIA
Hungary
30
29
31,2
30,6
24,8
20
19,1
14,3
19,9 POLAND
ESTONIA
Lithuania
Poland
17,3
10
Russia
0
Slovakia
1997/96
-10
1998/97
RUSSIA
-3,5
1999/98
2000/99
2001/00
Slovenia
-14,2
-20
-19,2
22
In 2001, the Lithuania’s ICT
market grew by 24,8 per cent
In 2001, the Germany ICT
market grew by -1,3 per cent
•
23
Baltic States IT Market Size in 2001 (mln. USD)
325
167,15
150,03
Estija
Latvija
Lietuva
Baltic States IT Market in 2001 was 642, 18 mln. USD
24
•
Differences in estimation of ICT
market trends in Lithuania
25
SURPRISE ?!? ICT/GDP ratio in 1998 (WITSA, INFOBALT)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
UK
New Zealand
US
Australia
Canada
Singapore
Hong Kong
South Afrika
Sweden
Switzerland
Japan
Lithuania
Netherlands
Denmark
Colombia
Ireland
France
Czech Rep.
Finland
Belgium
Norway
Korea
Israel
Vietnam
Malaysia
Germany
8.4
8.4
8.3
8.2
7.8
7.2
7
6.9
6.9
6.8
6.7
6.5
6.4
6.2
5.9
5.7
5.7
5.7
5.6
5.5
5.4
5.2
5
5
4.9
4.9
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
Portugal
Austria
Chile
Brazil
Italy
Slovakia
Taiwan
Greece
Hungary
Spain
Mexico
Venezuela
Slovenia
Argentina
China
Philippines
Saudi Arabia
Poland
Thailand
Egypt
India
Indonesia
Russia
Turkey
Romania
Bulgaria
4.8
4.6
4.5
4.2
4
4
4
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.1
3
2.6
2.4
2.3
2.2
2
1.9
1.9
1.7
1.5
0.5
0.3
26
27
ICT Market in Lithuania
(in Millions Euro) :
1999 – 615 ; 2000 – 722; 2001 – 806;
According EITO’2002-IDC
1999 – 754 ; 2000 – 1070; 2001 – 1480;
According Infobalt.
28
Differrences in estimation of ICT Market growth
in Lithuania (1999-2001, in Millions EUR)
1580
INFOBALT
INFOBALT2002
1480
1380
1180
1070
980
780
580
754
615
806
722
EITO2002
EITO2002
380
180
-20
1999/98
2000/99
2001/00
29
ICT Market Growth rates in Lithuania in
1999-2001 in EURO :
00/99 – 17.4%; 01/00 – 11.6%;
According EITO’2002-IDC estimation
00/99 – 42.0%; 01/00 – 38.3%;
According Infobalt estimation.
30
Differrences in estimation of ICT Market growth
(%) in Lithuania (1999-2001, in EURO)
INFOBALT
50
40
INFOBALT2002
42
38,3
30
20
17,4
11,6
10
EITO2002
EITO2002
0
-10
1999/98
2000/99
2001/00
-20
31
ICT Market Growth rates in Lithuania in
1999-2001 in LITAS :
00/99 – 31.2%; 01/00 – 24.8 %
accorging INFOBALT
due to different exchange rates
in 1999-2001 years .
32
ICT Market growth rates (%) in Lithuania (1999-2000)
according EITO and INFOBALT
ICT Market growth rates (%) in Lithuania (1999-2000)
INFOBALT
according EITO and INFOBALT
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
42
42
31,2
31,2
17,4
10
20
0
10
-10
38,3
38,3
24,8
INFOBALT2002 in EUR
INFOBALT2002 in EUR
24,8 INFOBALT2002
EITO2002 in EURin Litas
11,6
2000/9911,6
EITO2002
INFOBALT2002 in Litas
17,4
1999/98
INFOBALT
EITO2002
EITO2002
INFOBALT
2001/00
-200
INFOBALT
1999/98
2000/99
2001/00
-10
33
?
And only future common work and
cooperation between CEEC and
Western experts in unification of
methodologies for ICT market
estimation can give the adequate and
real outlook of Eastern European ICT
industry, fully comparable with
Western European data and forecasts.
“…global marketing information from a global
research company, with unequalled expertise
and experience in internet issues …”
Taylor Nelson Sofres
Interactive -
Global
eCommerce
Report 2002
35
Copyright 2002 © Taylor Nelson Sofres Interactive
1
36
GeR
Internet users across the world 2002/2001
2001
50
50
39
37 38 38
Country average (34%)
46 46
Netherlands
Canada
Finland
Norway
Australia
Singapore
Korea
Hong Kong
Taiwan
Ireland
Belgium
Israel
Germany
Estonia
Italy
Great Britain
France
Spain
24
Czech
Malaysia
20 21
Turkey
Thailand
Poland
Mexico
18 18 18 18
Lithuania
Latvia
Serbia
Bulgaria
Indonesia
Ukraine
0
India
6
12
Romania
4
9 10
17
15 16 16
Argentina
20
10
44
52 52 53
28 29
30
Slovak Republic
40
41 42
63
Denmark
58
60
61 62
59 60
USA
70
Hungary
Per cen tage of total adult p opulation
2002
Per cen tage of the pop ulation who ha ve persona lly used the Internet du ring the pa st mon th
37
Copyright 2002 © Taylor Nelson Sofres Interactive
17
GeR
Three groups of countries based on their
level of Internet penetration
Low penetration
(less than 20% are
users)
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Argentina
Bulgaria
Hungary
India
Indonesia
Latvia
Lithuania
Mexico
Poland
Romania
Serbia
Thailand
Ukraine
Medium penetration
High penetration
(20 to 40% are users)
(more than 40% are users)
•
Czech Rep
•
•
•
Estonia
France
Great Britain
•
•
•
Italy
Malaysia
Slovak Republic
•
•
Spain
Turkey
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Australia
Belgium
Canada
Denmark
Finland
Germany
Hong Kong
Ireland
Israel
South Korea
Netherlands
Norway
Singapore
Taiwan
•
USA
Copyright 2002 © Taylor Nelson Sofres Interactive
18
38
Lithuania
•
•
•
Although the number of internet users has slightly increased in
Lithuania, this has not significantly raised the level of e-shopping.
This can be explained by the fact that the internet is used mainly as a
means for communication e.g. for sending emails, and as a tool for
researching information - as well as reading online magazines and
newspapers.
E-shopping generally is understood to be: more difficult, less fun and
a less safe way of shopping among residents of Lithuania.
39
Copyright 2002 © Taylor Nelson Sofres Interactive
50
INFOBALT Strategic goals
By 2015, with stable annual economic growth rates:
7 per cent - optimistic level
6 per cent - average level
to achieve 25% share of ICT (Knowledge
Economy) in Lithuania’s GDP (with 25 % of this from export)
To achieve that the society gets greatest possible benefit
from IST, scientific research and innovation activity
To accelerate the development of economic factors which
ensure social development and employment (digital divide)
To arrange economic factors for ensuring environment
protection
40
Structure of GDP
1900-2010
GDP
Industry
Information
&Services
80%
60%
40%
Agroculture
20%
Metai
1900
1950
2020
41
ICT share in LITHUANIA’S GDP IN 2000 – 2015
17,50%
Paslaugos
Gamyba
7,70%
5%
1,40%
2000
2015
42
GROWTH RATES OF GDP per capita
in Lithuania and in EU
80
80
GDP (1000 Lt per capita)
69,8
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
29,1
20
20
12,2
10
10
0
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
Laikotarpis, per kurį Lietuva pasiekia žinių visuomenės lygį
2015
2018
2021
2024
0
2030
2027
Lietuva
ES
43
44
45
Informacinės visuomenės plėtros komitetas prie LR Vyriausybės
Fiksuoto ryšio tarifai (2001 m. vidurys)
Abonentinis
mokestis
(Lt./ mėn.)
Sujungimo
mokestis
(ct.)
Vietiniai
skambučiai
(ct./ min.)
Tarpmiestiniai
skambučiai
(ct./ min.)
Tarptautiniai į
(JAV)
(Lt./ min.)
Internetas
(ct./ min.)
Lietuva
19
12
11
40
2.79
14
Estija
17.8
11
6
16
1.17
6
Latvija
23
8
15
46
2.68
8
Švedija
40
18
12.4
12.4
1.68
9
Suomija
39.9
-
11.6
32.2
ND
46 3
Vyriausybės Informacinės visuomenės plėtros komisijos posėdis
5%
EU Economic Growth lags
behind the US
4%
3%
2%
1%
EU
US
0%
-1%
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Source: Eurostat
47
48
Knowledge capacities : decline (&
recovery?)
120
Index (max=100)
100
80
60
40
20
Poland
Slovak Rep
Bulgaria
Czechoslovakia
Hungary
Lithuania
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
19
88
19
86
19
84
19
82
19
19
80
0
Czech Rep
Rom ania
Estonia
49
Intensity and volume of R&D expenditure,
1999
12
Japan
10
Finland
Iceland
Researchers per 1,000 Labour Force
Sw ede
8
Russia
Norw ay
United States
Australia
France
Denmark
6
Canada
Germany
Belgium
Ireland
Spain
Slovak Republic
Slovenia
Poland
Rom ania
Greece
2
Korea
Netherlands
New Zealand
4
Sw itzerland
United Kingdom
Austria
Italy
Hungary
Portugal
Argentina
Turkey
Czech Republic
China
GERD Millions US$
Brazil
Mexico
0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
GERD as % of GDP
2.5
3.0
50
3.5
THINK FAST Knowledge-based Economy
SPEED
START TODAY, NOT TOMORROW
DRUCKER’s
POINTS:
1. Leapfrogging is best done in times of
extreme change like these
2. Hurry to create a stable middle class of
knowledge technologists
3. Your agriculture + manufacturing  services
labour force redeployment will be major, so
start early
1. You have 10 months or so to tilt your National
Devt. Strategies towards KBE
MORE DOWNTO-EARTH’S
2. Use e-Europe + and Intl. Organizations for help
POINTS:
3. But don’t wait: begin your own actions, support
your first movers
51
LISBON – THE PROCESS AND THE STRATE
« The EU has today set itself a new strategic
goal for the next decade: to become the
most competitive and dynamic knowledgebased economy in the world, capable of
sustainable economic growth with more and
better jobs and greater social cohesion »
STRATEGY:
Promoting the information society, R&D, innova
and competitiveness
Investing in human capital and modernising the
European social model
Applying an appropriate macro-economic
52
policy mix
EU ACCESSION COUNTRIES: COMPLETE BASIC
ECONOMIC REFORM; AND ADD POLICY
CONSISTENT WITH CREATING A KNOWLEDGE
BASED ECONOMY
• Eliminate subsidies to non-innovating old enterprises (mostly in
agriculture, coal, mining, railways, shipbuilding, and steel)
• Regulatory development for the financial system and creation of
sophisticated capital markets, including a regulatory environment
that encourages venture capital
• Better protection of intellectual property rights
• Policies to increase labor market flexibility (reduced mobility
restrictions, low minimum wages, reduced termination restrictions)
• Effective social safety net (coordinated pension, unemployment and
social assistance schemes)
• Continued building of legal and judicial institutions, with
accountability of government
• Improved allocation of public expenditure, including more funding
of R & D, and of higher education, while maintaining fiscal stability
• Policy to continue to reduce cost of start up by small and medium 53
Lithuania’s participation in
5th Framework for R&D in
European Union
•5th Framework – 1998-2002
•Tendering for R&D Projects - 50%
financed by European Commission
(EC) and 50% by participants Universities, Industry, Government
Institutions
•See www.5fp.lt and www.cordis.lu/rtd2002/
54
Lithuania’s participation
in 5th FW for R&D in EU
Financing distribution according different programs
of 5th FW from EC to Lithuania (TOTAL –7,7 MEUR)
Largest:
536.096
IST – Information Society Technologies
1.405.209
773.896
663.465
1.615.894
870.821
838.596
930.369
LIFE
IST
GROWTH
NNE
ESD
INCO
INNO
IHP
Source: European Commission, December 2001
55
Lithuania’s participation
in 5th FW for R&D in EU
• By end of 2001 membership fee
paid from Lithuania to EC 5FW
– 7,4 MEuro
• Return back to Lithuania
from EC 5FW – 7,7 MEuro
Source: European Commission, December 2001
56
57
LT - LITHUANIA
6. INOVATIONS LTU +
7. LEAPFROGGING, TIGERS,
AMBITION PRJECTS LTU +
8. SENSE AND RESPOND – A NEW
PARADIGM in INDUSRTY,
SCM-ERP-CRM
LTU9. New dimension in private-publicED&SC.&R&D coolaboration and
partnership LTU -
58
How technologies can help to solve
POLITICAL PROBLEMS
www.infobalt.lt
LITHUANIA AND KALININGRAD REGION
 Good, friendly relations between Lithuania and Kaliningrad
Region of Russia, cross-border movement of people in this area
and related visa issues has become an "entrance" ticket for
Lithuania to join the European Union.
 The residents of Kaliningrad Region today have visa free entry
to Lithuania, and vice versa
Before EU accession, Lithuania is planning to introduce visa regime
in July 2003.
Russia would prefer to keep current visa free movement of people
from Kaliningrad to "great" Russia and in opposite direction
www.infobalt.lt
www.infobalt.lt
Political Project Idea
Technologies can help to solve a political problem Electronic Travelling Visas on smart-cards for the residents of
Kaliningrad Region can improve the border crossing possibilities for the
residents of Kaliningrad Region
www.infobalt.lt
Technological Project Idea
Use of mechanisms of PKI - Public Key Infrastructure - with electronic
signature on smart-card as a toolkit for Electronic Visas or e-Visas
www.infobalt.lt
Digital signature – analogy - e-visa
 … has the same purpose as a handwritten signature ... as
handwritten visa
 … could be role-based ... The same ...
 … has the same legal effect as a handwritten signature ...
The same ...
www.infobalt.lt
KALININGRAD
Resident of Kaliningrad
B
O
R
D
E
R
LITHUANIA
Lithuania’s Border control police officer
Computer Center of
Lithuania's Consulate
Network must work as
e-visa Certification
Authority.
Lithuania's Consulate in
Kaliningrad Region
issues e-Visas for the
residents of Kaliningrad
www.infobalt.lt
Advantages of e-visas
 With the help of mobile computers, border control staff can
quickly and easily (in 3-7 seconds) check the identity of a person,
validate electronic visas and track the history of crossborder
transitions (if necessary) in each particular case
 Every year, some 1.5 million border-crossing transitions are
made between Kaliningrad Region and Lithuania. Time spent on
border-crossing procedures can be saved dramatically
 System can work both in ONLINE and OFFLINE modes
 System can be used by customs offices for tracing of transit
procedures via Lithuania
www.infobalt.lt
Advantages of e-visas
 Can improve the border crossing possibilities for the residents
of Kaliningrad Region
 With the help of PKI mechanisms for Electronic Visas, the
project can integrate the business of Kaliningrad Region into the
world of e-economy and enable all residents of Kaliningrad
Region to be full participants of e-trade worldwide by using of esignatures.
 In the future, can be used for the movement within the EU
www.infobalt.lt
THERE ARE NOT ANY MAJOR
TECHNOLOGICAL CHALLENGES.
THE PROBLEMS ARE ORGANISATIONAL
AND EVEN HARDER - SOCIAL
(EITO 2002, p. 345).
THE PROBLEMS ARE (%)
1.Infrastructure (10%)
2.Broadband comm.(5%)
10
15
5
3.Non-technological issues 30%
4.Digital signatures (20%)
5.Security (20%)
20
30
20
6.Legal issues (15%)
68
• Since 1999 Infobalt is providing
aggressive Public Relations Actions
concerning Promotion of
Information Society in our Country.
The Goal - to enhance
Government, Business and Citizens
concern about the inadequate
development of Information Society
in Lithuania, to intensify the
understanding of the importance of
ICT, the Internet in the process of 69
transition to new economy.
Contacts
Association Infobalt Lithuania, Vokiečių 28/17 – 16, LT-2001 Vilnius
LITHUANIA
Ph. +370 2 62 26 23, fax +370 2 62 26 29
E mail: [email protected]
www.infobalt.lt
THANKS ALL OF YOU FOR COOPERATION !
WE ARE LOOKING FORWARD TO
SEE YOU IN LITHUANIA !
71