Transcript with a significant amount of biased views

Technology Trends
with a significant amount of biased views
Stefan Lindeberg
[email protected]
+46 708 842445
Who am I?
• 17 years in datacom
– IBM, NSC, Cisco
• Board member
– Xelerated, Hyglo,
Appgate, Comlase,
Lumentis, PacketFront,
Transmode
• Advisor to:
– Wavium, Startupfactory,
European Equity Partner
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Topics
• My views on
–Communications Technology
–Solutions and Products
–Business models
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17 years experience in datacom
TCP/IP ESCON
Token Ring
If there’s anything I’ve learnt:
Ethernet
Appletalk
DECNET
MPOA
KISS
OSI
X.25
3270
Keep It Simple Stupid
SNA
IPX
APPN
Bayan Wines
FDDI (It might actually work)
DLSW
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17 years experience in datacom
A good way
to avoid C&B’s
(Crash and Burn’s)
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The only thing we have learned from history is
that we don’t learn from history
Bridging Ethernet’s
• Over leased lines
• Over ATM (lane)
• Over ATM with ½
router (MPOA)
• Over IP
• Over MPLS
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Oops!
Communications
Technology
Trends
The days of the “miracle boxes”!
A telephone switch
with an integrated
Internet router, ATM
switch, windows NT
server, WWW
server and which
can act as an
firewall, load
balancer and cook
your coffee
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The days of the “miracle boxes” are over!
• Financial
– Old services becomes
more expensive to
produce but no or
limited increased
revenue
– New service becomes
as expensive as the old
to produce
• Technical
– Jack of all trades,
master of none
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Filing the dam, more broadband users then ever
Global Broadband Connections
35
30
Miljons
25
20
15
10
5
0
2001 Q4
2002 Q1
2002 Q2
2002 Q3
2002 Q4
Estimate
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64% year
over year
growth!
Next wave of growth
• Long haul networks in place
• New investments in customer access
equipment, as new customers are signed up
• Drives investments in aggregation and
metro equipment
Investments
Customer Aggregation
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Metro
Core
Aggregation and metro network technologies
As the capacity in current access networks
is exhausted a number of choices exists:
1.
Metro DWDM
•
2.
+ capacity - cost
CWDM
•
3.
+ low cost + outdoor (-) 16 wavelengths
Next generation SONET/SDH
•
4.
+ leverage installed base - cost
Optical Ethernet
•
5.
+ low cost - enterprise focused products until now
Resilient Packet Ring
•
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+ resilient – standard not ready
Technology turned into
solutions and
products
Revenue
Technology and product selection
Cost
Product
Technology
Services
Selection
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All solutions should solve a problem
• A solution in search of a problem
– A great technology, but so what?
• A solution to an old problem
– Does it still exist?
• A solution based on erroneous assumptions
– For example: humans better than computers in
doing repetitive things
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…with out adding complexity
We have enough tools and
technologies that are:
• Too complicated
• Too limited
• Too partial
• Doesn’t solve a
problem
Great way to shoot
yourself in the foot!
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Limiting factors
Human
understanding
Designing products
Coding software
Designing networks
Operating
Troubleshooting
Maintaining networks
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Getting around the problem
Bricks
Mission specific devices
– Boxes that do ONE thing
and does it well
– Boxes we can understand
“Boxed” technologies
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More narrow but yet broader
Today
Platforms and services
focus on one
application, for
example 3G
wireless.
But the same function
or service might be
needed in other
applications
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More narrow but yet broader
Example:
• Location services or “Find me”
• Needed for mobile telephony
and other applications
• Today’s system for mobile
telephony only
• Should be for all platforms:
PC, PDA’s, terminals, fixed and
mobile telephony, Digital TV
boxes etc
• Transparent “follow me”
services
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More narrow but yet broader
Example:
• Secure identification
• Needed for electronic
commerce and other
applications
• Today’s system built for
one platform, PC based ecommerce, GSM terminals
• Should be for all platforms:
PC, PDA’s, terminals, Digital
TV boxes etc
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Solutions for the future
The solutions for the future has to:
1. Solve a real problem
2. Be mission specific
– Solve a well defined problem and do it well
3. Be broader
– Solve this problem for multiple environments
i.e. Wireless, fixed, Internet and multiple
applications
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3G, 4G and so on
Perceived and marketed 3G drivers
• High bandwidth
internet and data
access
• Video conferencing
• Music
• Watch movies, video
on demand
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Mobile 3G costs per minute*
•
•
•
•
•
•
Voice 14kbps
Music MP3 200kbps
Music DTS 700kbps
Video VHS 1.5Mbps
Video DVD 5Mbps
Video DVD+ 10Mbps
$0.20
$3.00
$10.00
$22.50
$75.00
$150.00
Two 3 minute songs:
1.5h movie VHS:
*source: Östen Mäkitalo Telia
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$18
$2025
Real 3G drivers
What will drive 3G?
• Spectrum efficiency
– The available
frequencies is already
a scarce resource
• Multimedia messaging
– Greetings
– Pictures
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IP Based Mobile Terminals
Si
”The Mobile Internet
will never be larger
than a couple of
hundred meters”
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Internet
Mobile telephony is an access method to the net
• All content and all
services accessible
through internet and
TCP/IP
• TCP/IP enabled
handsets and
terminals
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Next generation wireless networks
Wireless device
with IP
Wireless router with
2.5G, 3G and 802.11x interface
Service provider
Other customer access
technologies
xDSL, CATV, Ethernet
Internet
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Location services
Security services
Policy services
Billing services
Business Models
are changing
Business Models
Still dominating: The “triple play”!
The same organization provides:
•Physical infrastructure, cables, ducts etc
•Logical infrastructure, switches, routers
•Service infrastructure, servers billing sw
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Disintegration is happening in all areas
• Virtual GSM operators
– Doesn’t own the physical network
• 3G providers build networks together
– 3G licenses and build-out expensive
• IP VPN service providers
– Reseller of Internet services
– Deliver IP VPN service
• Deregulation continuing
– New players, counties, power companies,
construction companies etc
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Broadband services business model
$
I1 I2 I3 T1 T2 V1
Telenordia, IP-only,
Tiscali, DigiSIP …
Active, IP network
Via Europa
Physical, cables
Property owners
Hammarbysjöstad
Customers
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New business model has impact on products
• New requirements on products
– Multi-operator support
– Multiple address domains
– Security
– Management
– OSS interfaces
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Conclusion:
Networking Darwinism:
Survival of the simple solutions
Simple in this context, is simple enough that humans can
understand, because humans still have to design,
maintain and operate the network
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Questions?
Comments?
Thank you!