Transcript Moral & Social Consequences of Growth By Dr TH CHOWDARY

Moral & Social
Consequences of Growth
By
Dr T.H. CHOWDARY
Director: Center for Telecom Management and Studies
Chairman: Pragna Bharati (intellect India )
Former: Chairman & Managing Director
Videsh Sanchar Nigam Limited &
Information Technology Advisor,
Government of Andhra Pradesh
T: +91(40) 6667-1191/ 2784-6137(O) 2784-3121®
F: +91 (40) 6667-1111, 2789-6103
[email protected]
[email protected]
Talk @ Osmania University, Hyderabad : 16 April 2008
With Growth of the economy (GDP)
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Country’s wealth increases
International trade increases
India imports outstrip exports
The gap is covered by
– Remittances
– FDI
• Equity into new plants
• Share market
• NRI deposits
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Unequal Benefits
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The entrepreneurial
The educated
The skilled gain the most
The illiterate
Inadequately educated
Rural pop dependent on agriculture will
gain the least
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Inequality tends to increase
• Educated / Enterprising / Business / Trade
/ Industry i.e knowledge workers / people
become millionaires
• Rest gain due to wage increases
• Coastal, urban, industrial areas prosper
faster than the rest
• In India Urban PCI is 7 times the rural & is
increasing
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Growth of GDP; Population;
Per Capita Income (PCI) &
Years for doubling PCI
Period GDP
1951 to 3.5
2000
20049.0
07
POP
2.8
PCI
0.7
YRS
70
1.8
7.2
10
•BPL ratio is the index: in India it came down from 70% in the 1950s to
about 30% now
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Per Capita Income (PCI)
Developing Countries
Country
PCI
Korea
17,930
Developed Countries
Country
PCI
USA
37,500
Mauritius
Malaysia
Brazil
11,260
8,940
7,480
Ireland
Japan
Netherlands
30,450
28,620
28,600
Thailand
China
Sri Lanka
7,450
4,900
3,730
UK
Germany
France
27,650
27,460
27,460
Indonesia
India
3,210
2,880
Singapore
Israel
24,180
19,200
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Poverty/Inequality
(1/2)
* Growth/Development & Inequality
• Who profits/gains or losses
• There can be no alleviation of poverty
without growth; but Growth can create
inequalities;
• True; Inequality can grow with growth
but…
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Poverty/Inequality (2/2)
• “Deng Tsiao Ping’s dictums
- It is glorious to be rich
• It matters little whether the cat is black or white
as long as it can catch the rats
• Some people will have to become rich before
the poor can be helped to get out of poverty
• Hu Jintao: Prez of China
“Harmonious Society”
“From party-building to nation-building”
“Socialism” with Chinese characteristics
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South & West India Vs
North & East India
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a.
b.
c.
d.
Privatisation of Higher Education:
Difference in
Rate of population growth
Literacy/Education
Casteist parties in UP/Bihar
Empowerment before enlightenment
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Containing Inequality
• Education
• Re-skilling
• Population Stabilisation
[No negatives; simply withdraw
welfare/subsidies]
• Population Migration
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Social consequences (1)
• Social cohesion undermined
• Nation-hood in jeopardy
• Violence, insurgency, separation,
terrorism, lawlessness increase
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Social consequences (2)
Competition to be listed as backward Castes
1950
1970
2006
Kaka
Kalelkar
Mandal
Arjun
Singh
3500
4500
6300
•Castes in Andhra Pradesh284
•Forward
•B Cs (Recognised)
•B Cs (pending)
•S Cs
•Moslems backward?
5
105
120
54
* Poor, voting multitudes demand welfare/ reservations/ proportional representation
*Backwardness as weapon for entitlement
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Social consequences (3)
• Illiteracy, poverty & large families are a
vicious circle
• Child labour
• China froze population increase with only
one child norm since 1978
• Remedy: Education; Obligatory one/two
child norm on pain of welfare termination.
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Social consequences (4)
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Populism, Politics – for –Power
“Minority” promoted on basis of religion
State Funding (Buying) of Elections (votes)
NREG
Loan waivers
Free everything
Example:
Communal Budget
Minister fo Minority Affairs budget increased from Rs.500
cr to Rs.1,000 cr
• Multi-sectoral development for 90 Moslem districts
Rs.3,780 cr
• Prematric scholarship Rs.80 cr.
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Social consequences (5)
• Modernising madrassas Rs. 45.45cr
• Maulana Azad education Funding: Rs. 200 cr in
2007-’08 + Rs. 60 cr in 2008-’09
• 544 public sector bank branches for Moslems
upto March 2008; many more in 2008-09
• “Minority” special recruitment to Central Para
military forces
• National Minority Development & Finance
Corporation (Rs. 50 cr in 2004-’05 plus--(Source: Para 47 of F.M’s Budget Speech)
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Whose Development Needs to be First?
Why Moslem First? Why not Scheduled Tribes, Scheduled Castes?
Stock of SC & ST Engineers & Doctors in Andhra Pradesh
Andhra Pradesh : Census 2001
Total in the State
Of which
SC
ST
Engineers
3,27,032
19,590 (6%)
3,559 (1.08%)
Doctors
63,325
3,943 (6.2%) 861 (1.35%)
SMZs (Special Moslem Zones)
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Moslems (Backward?) Representation
in A P Government Service
A P Govt Servants
Muslims
9,48,980
77,919
Moslems Representation
9.26%
Moslem population (2001)
9.2%
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How Caste Can Wither Away
• Profession – Education – Access
• Opportunity to change profession
• Urbanisation & Emigration
“Educate our masters” - Disraeli
“…above all things do not do harm….”
- Hippocrates
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Migrations of People
• Latinos, Asians into USA
• Africans, Arabs, Turks, Pak & Bangladesh into
Europe
• Han Chinese into Tibet, Xingjiang
• Bangladesh into Assam, Bengal, Bihar, and---• “Bihari” workers into Assam, Mumbai, Punjab
• Racial, religious linguistic, regional ( eg:
Telengana) conflicts
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Environment & Natural Resources
• Increasing energy consumption: Coal, oil,
bio
• Pollution; CO2, emissions; Ozone layer
holes; Sea levels rising
• Many species disappearing
• Water shortage; shrinking ground water
• Planet unlivable for humans
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Moral Questions (1)
• Can poverty be eliminated (like caste
being annihilated); but both castes &
poverty growing according to government
figures
• Can inequality be eliminated? (in N.Korea,
Cuba, former USSR & pre 1978 China
except the New Class all were equal in
poverty)
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Moral Questions (2)
Conspicuous consumptions
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Shopping Malls
Marriage & birth-day bashes
Party Congresses
Mansions / Palaces for the rich ( Jubilee
Hills, Banjara Hills etc…)
• Air-conditioned pre-;Py & High Schools,
children bussed in a/c vehicles
• How can there be common “national,
fraternal, citizenship”
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Essentials for Prosperity
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Human Resource
Entrepreneurship, not entitlement & Employment
Duties,not rights ( Every right is in a duty fulfilled)
Saving to form capital
Proper use of resources to generate surpluses/profit
Work Ethic First;
Welfare must be related to work
“He who does not work, neither shall he eat…”
- V I Lenin
Labour Productivity
Lower Trade Barrier
Private [domestic & foreign] capital, competition [eg.telecoms]
Flight of capital, talent, easy under globalisation
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Populism Destroys
• Degenerate democracy, Ignoble
leadership.
• State Funding (Buying) of Elections
(Voters)
• Give-aways-NREG; Rs.60,000 cr, loan
waiver; Rs.1800 cr; Rs.1/Kg Vs Rs.5/cup
of Tea
• Unjustified Pilgrimage subsidies
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Answer to Social & Moral dilemmas
of “Development & Growth
* Indian concept of :
• Right Education and Culture
• Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam
• Isavaasyamidam sarvam
• Parasparam bhaavantah sreyoparamavaapsyatha
• Aanoh bhadraah ritavo yaantu viswatah
• Mutual, reciprocal, respect; value for pluralism
• Harmonious Society
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• Om Sahanaavavatu, sahanu bhunaktu
• Sahaveeryam Karavaavahaih
• Tejasvinaavadheetamastu
• Maa Vidvishaavahaih,
• Om! Shantih, shantih, shantih!
• May we protect ourselves together,
experience/ enjoy together, perform
valorous deed together, not quarrel among
ourselves, may our learning be brilliant.
• Peace, peace, peace !!! ( for all,
everywhere, all the time))
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Abraham Lincoln
Said:
• You cannot bring about prosperity by discouraging thrift
• You cannot strengthen the weak by weakening the
strong
• You cannot help the poor by destroying the rich
• You cannot establish sound security on borrowed money
• You cannot keep out trouble by spending more than you
earn
• You cannot build character and courage
• by taking away man’s initiative and Independence
• you cannot help men permanently by doing for them
• what they can do for themselves
•
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Socialism: Wise thoughts from
Sri Nani Palkhiwala (1/4)
• Socialism as practised in India has been a fraud: Our brand of
socialism did not result in transfer of wealth from the rich to the
poor but only from the honest rich to the dishonest rich
• The sleeping sickness of socialism is now universally
acknowledged – but not officially in India… The public sector
enterprises are the black holes, the money guzzlers and they
have been extracting and exorbitant price for India’s doctrinaire
socialism.
• A law suite once started in India is the nearest thing to eternal
life ever seen on this earth….
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Socialism: Wise thoughts from
Sri Nani Palkhiwala (2/4)
•
History will record that the greatest mistake of the India Republic in
the first 50 years of its existence was to make less investment in
human resources-education, family planning, nutrition and public
health-than in brick and motor dams and factories.
•
Over taxation corrupted the national character overtly. The nation
survived only because the tax system continued to breathe through
loopholes and the economy used to breath through window of tax
evasion.
•
We have too much Government and too little administration; too many
laws and too little justice; too many public servants and too little
public service, too many controls and too little welfare.
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Socialism: Wise thoughts from
Sri Nani Palkhiwala (3/4)
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•
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We keep on tackling 50-year problem with 5year plans, staffed by 2-year officials, working
with one year appropriations, fondly hoping
that somehow the laws of economics will be
suspended because we are Indians.
India continues to remain the only significant
country in the free world to hold aloft the
tainted and tattered flag of socialism.
“ We shut our eyes to the fact that socialism is
to social justice, what ritual is to religion and
dogma is to truth”.
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Socialism: Wise thoughts from
Sri Nani Palkhiwala (4/4)
• Indian liberalisation encounters formidable opposition
from three quarters.
a)
The top heavy bureaucracy reluctant to shed its
enormous powers
b)
Influential politicians who prefer to let socialism
remain the opium of the people and of whom it can be
truly said that if ignorance is bliss, they should be the
happiest men alive.
c)
Quite a few Indian businessmen men who are
much interested in their own personal prosperity than in
the future of the country and who preferred to flourish in
the non competitive environment.
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Who is a true leader:
• Those who claim to lead the masses must resolutely refuse
to be led by them, if we want to avoid mob law and desire
ordered progress for the country. I believe that mere
protestation of one’s opinion and surrender to the mass
opinion is not only not enough, but in matters of vital
importance, leaders must act contrary to the mass of
opinions if it does not commend itself to their reason.
- M.K.Gandhi
• Leaders should lead as far as they can and vanish. Their
ashes should not choke the fire they have lit.
(As we have about a Dynasty in India)
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“People who are elected”
“If the people who are elected are capable and men of
character and integrity they would be able to make
the best even of defective Constitution. If they are
lacking in theses, the Constitution cannot help
the country. …there is fissiparous tendency arising out
of various elements in our life. We have communal
differences, caste differences, language differences,
provincial difference. It runs them of strong character
men of vision, men who will not sacrifice the interest of
the country at large for the sake of smaller goods and
areas and who will rise over the prejudices which are
born of these differences. We can only put an
account will prove out such men in abundance. “…
-Dr Rajendra Prasad - from the speech at the final
adoption of the Constitution.
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“…..Our Independence maybe lost for ever…………!!!”
(1/2)
-Dr B R Ambedkar’s speech after writing the Constitution
“Here I could have ended. But my mind is so full of the future of our country that
I feel I ought to take this occasion to give expression to some of my
reflections thereon. On 26th January 1950, India will be an Independent
country. (Cheers) What would happen to her Independence? Will she
maintain her Independence or will she lose it again? This is the first thought
that comes to my mind. It is not that India was never an Independent
country. The point is that she once lost the Independence she had. Will she
lose it a second time> it is this thought which makes me most anxious for
the future. What perturbs me greatly is the fact that not only India has once
before lost her Independence, but she lost it by the infidelity and treachery
of some of her own pr. In the invasion of Sindh by Mahommed-Bin-Kasim,
the military commanders of King Dahar accepted bribes from the agents of
Mohammed-Bin-Kasim and refused to fight on the side of their King.
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(2/2)
“…..Our Independence maybe lost for ever…………!!!”
-Dr B R Ambedkar’s speech after writing the Constitution
•
It was Jaichand who invited Mahommed Ghori to invade India and fight against Prithvi Raj
and promised him the help of himself and the Solanki Kings.
•
When Shivaji was fighting for the liberation of Hindus, the other Maratha noblemen and the
Rajput Kings were fighting the battle on the side of Mogul Emperors. When the British were
trying to destroy the Sikh Rulers, Gulab Singh, their principal commander, sat silent and
did not help to save the Sikh Kingdom. In 1857, when a large part of India had declared a
war of Independence against the British, the Sikhs stood and watched the event as silent
spectators.
•
Will history repeat itself? It is this thought which fills me with anxiety. This anxiety is
deepened by the realization of the fact that in addition to our old enemies in the form of
castes and creeds we are going to have many political parties with diverse and opposing
political creeds. Will Indians place creed above country? I do not know. But this much is
certain that if the parties place creed above country, our Independence will be put in
jeopardy a second time and probably be lost forever…….”
•
Source: The Makers of Indian Constitution – Myth and Reality by Sheshrao Chavan,
Bharatiya Vidya Bhavan publication
-
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Dhanyawad:
Thank You
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Rapid Growth:
Lessons From China
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• World’s 4th largest economy US, Japan, FRG,PRC
• In 2005 China’s/capita GDP was $ 1700 USA $ 42,000
• 140m or 15% of China’s work force are economic migrants on the
move
• 300,000 US $ millionaires
• 400 mln living on< $ 2/day
• 16 of the world’s most polluted cities are in China
• Life expectancy: 71 Y
• Foreign exchange reserves $ 1 Trln in’06
• By 2035 China world’s largest economy PCI 1/4th of USA
• US is richer by $ 70 bln/year because of China’s cheaper goods 9
Rs. 3,00,000 cr)
• Real/opponent in 2005 9 times that in 1978
• Adult illiteracy : 7%
• BPL: 250 mln in 1978; 26 m in 2004; 20 m in 2008
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5 factors: embrace market force
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Open up to Trade &FDI
High levels of savings & investments
Structural transformation of labor force
Investment in education
China a net supplier of capital to the rest
of the world
• Labour engaged in Agriculture declined
from 70% to 50% in 2006
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• Adult Literacy in 1977:
– China: 66%
– India-36%
• 1986: Compulsory education
• Mid 1990s :
– China: 80%
– India: 50%
• Female literacy :
– China : 73%
– India : 38%
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Privatised 150K of the 300K PSUs
In PSU manufacturing sector lost jobs: 80% (25m)
Social unrest
Investing 40% of GDP
19070s China’s inequality levels were lowest in the world
China’s urbanisation rate 20m/year highest in the world
- 200m (1996-’06)
• Urban unemployed 8.5 mln in ’05
• Productivity in manufacturing services is 16 times > in
Agriculture
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• Energy imports 5% of GDP
• Energy consumption/unit of GDP
China: double world average & 3.5 times US
• Farm population earning more than twice the average
doubled between 2000 & 2004!
• Rate of escape from poverty in rural areas slowed
• Government debt :
– 25% of GDP in China
– 60% in the USA
– 40% in India
• Major social challenges: Health care, Education,
Unemployment in source & pension
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SEZs 40m peasants forced off land: 2m/year now
Han Chinese inundation into Tibet Xing Xiang
Coastal provinces X West & North
Corruption : 78th (?)out of 158 countries
China punished 170,850 party members for corruption in
2005 (16 ministers & governors, 350 government
advocates; 461 judges)
• Economic loss due to corruption 5% of GDP
(Rs.2,00,000cr) (India 15 m government servants
Rs.1,30,000/employee/year Rs11,000 p.m!)
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• Total fertility of women down from 6.1 in
1949 to 1.8 in 2002; below the 2.1 birth
rate required to keep population steady!
• 117 males for 100 females
• In 2004, 78,500 private educational
institutions, with 17 mln students & giving
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• Life expectancy:
– 35 in 1950s
– 71 in 2003
• Infant mortality down from 20% to 2.5%
• Private spending on heath care twice
government spending
• Cars: 24 mln 2006; adding 5 mln /year;
India: 1 mln
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Water pollution
• 90% urban ground water is polluted
• 50% of river water unsuitable for agriculture or
industry
• > 75% of surface water flown thro’ urban areas
is unsuitable for drinking or fishing
• China central government revenues 18.% of
GDP (17% in India) in 2003; up from 10.7% in
1995)
• 3 Evils: Terrorism, Separatism Religious
extremism to be “eradicated”
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• People in developed countries became
rich before they became old; in China
(& India), people are old before it
become’s rich ( populist; old age pensions
for all)
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