Transcript Poverty/Inequality (1/2)

Engines of Growth &
Development
By
Dr T.H. CHOWDARY
Director: Center for Telecom Management and Studies
Chairman: Pragna Bharati (intellect India )
Former: Chairman & Managing Director
Videsh Sanchar Nigam Limited &
Information Technology Advisor,
Government of Andhra Pradesh
T: +91(40) 6667-1191/ 2784-6137(O) 2784-3121®
F: +91 (40) 6667-1111, 2789-6103
[email protected]
[email protected]
Talk @ Osmania University, Hyderabad : 16 April 2008
Development
• Economic:
– Family Income
– Old Age Pensions
– Insurance
• Life, Health, Work
• Human:
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Health
Longevity
Education
Quality of Life ( air, water, leisure, communion…)
Stable Family
Stress
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Key Components of Human
Development
Material Well-Being
Income
Assets
Employment
Knowledge
Longevity
Mortality
Nutrition
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Health Care
Literacy
Schooling
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Higher Education
3
Building Blocks of the
Development Process
Enlightenment
Enrichment
Enhancement
Empowerment
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Linkages Between Economic Growth &
Human Development
ECONOMIC GROWTH
Corporates
Government
Economic Policy
Level & Pattern
of Expenditure
Education,
Health, Nutrition
Social Policy
Public
Provision
Assets &
Employment
Structural Factors- Assets,
Income & Employment
Poor
Social
Security
Delivery Systems-Quantum &
Quality of Services
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Households
HUMAN
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DEVELOPMENT
Productivity
R&D
Innovations
Rich
Expenditure on
Basic Needs
Public
Services
Private
Services
Investment in
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Human Capital
Growth Measures(1)
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Rates of GDP & PCI growth
Food, calories & proteins
Health: Disease & Death rates Doctors
Literacy, Education (graduates, S&T & R&D
Electricity consumed
Telecoms
Motor vehicles
Housing
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Growth Measures(2)
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•
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Trade
Foreign Exchange Resources
Tourism
Roads, Railways, Ports (sea & air)
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Ancient Engines of Growth of
Wealth
• Conquest & loot (Greek, Persian, Roman,
Egyptian, Arab, Mongol (i/c Mogul),
European imperial/ Colonial conquests
• All these which depended on force died/
dying (US)
* Empires of the future will be those of the
mind (ie intellect).
– Winston Churchill
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Fuel for Modern Engines of Growth
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Education
S&T
Knowledge Creation – R&D
Health
Human Resources ( can overcome lack of
natural resources. Eg: Singapore, Israel,
Japan)
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Prosperity & Poverty
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Per Capita Income (PCI)
Developing Countries
Country
PCI
Korea
17,930
Developed Countries
Country
PCI
USA
37,500
Mauritius
Malaysia
Brazil
11,260
8,940
7,480
Ireland
Japan
Netherlands
30,450
28,620
28,600
Thailand
China
Sri Lanka
7,450
4,900
3,730
UK
Germany
France
27,650
27,460
27,460
Indonesia
India
3,210
2,880
Singapore
Israel
24,180
19,200
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Growth of GDP; Population;
Per Capita Income (PCI) &
Years for doubling PCI
Period GDP
1951 to 3.5
2000
20049.0
07
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POP
2.8
PCI
0.7
YRS
70
1.8
7.2
10
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Poverty Ratio in Selected
States (1)
1973-74
All India
1993-94 1999-2000
54.9
36.0
26.1
Goa
44.3
14.9
4.4
Kerala
59.8
25.4
12.7
Gujarat
48.2
24.2
14.1
Rajasthan
46.1
27.4
15.3
Low poverty ratios
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Contd.
Poverty Ratio in Selected
States(2)
1973-74
1993-94
1999-00
High poverty ratios
Maharashtra
West Bengal
Uttar Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
53.2
63.4
57.1
61.8
36.9
35.7
40.9
42.5
25.0
27.0
31.2
37.4
Bihar
Andhra Pradesh*
61.9
50
55.0
35
42.6
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* According to white ration cards A P’s BPL pop. Is 85%
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Content of GDP
(Figs. in %)
Agricultu Industry
re
Service
Developed <5%
(Work force 3
25
20
70
75)
Developing
30 to 40
20 to 25
35 to 50
India*
China*
18
15
26
53
56
32
* In the year 2006
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The Rising Cost of Sustenance
Prices for various food staples
(in US $ per ton)
$600
$500
$400
Maize
Wheat
Soyabeans
Rice
$300
$200
$100
20
08
20
07
$0
Source: TIME, March 31, 2008)
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Engines of Growth(1)
• UK and other Western European States – Industry, Rail roads
• USA :
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Rail Roads
Automobiles
Interstate Highways
Electronics & Computers
Defence industries
S&T (Nuclear, pace, missiles)
• Japan:
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Automobiles &
Consumer Electronics
Semiconductors
Ship building
Robots
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Engines of Growth(2)
• Korea
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Electronics
Automobiles
Ship-building
Construction
• China
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–
–
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–
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Highways
Railways
Dams & Canals
Telecoms
Industries (from small to sophisticated machines)
Electrics
Machines
Construction (buildings, ports…)
Defence Industries
Iron & Steel, Cement
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Engines of Growth(3)
• India:
– What are & what could be
– I.T & Software
– Pharmaceuticals
– R&D ( for other nations)
– Highways
– Construction (Housing, offices)
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What slow down or brake our
engines of growth
•
•
•
•
•
Governments – permit-licence-quota
Corruption
Welfare before work
Competitive populism
Personality cult in political parties
(proprietarisation)
• Poor education
• Poor Nutrition
• Ignoble leadership
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Post-USSR engines for
Development (1)
• Winding down government /state
capitalism
• Liberalisation, privatisation & competition
(eg: telecoms/ air travel, personal finance,
automobiles)
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Post-USSR engines for
Development (2)
• Flow of capital/enterprises
• PPP- projects
• Privatisation of Higher Education (Talent
creating A P, TN, KN, MH) and now all
stages of education.
• Competition between PSUs & privates
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Affordability of Electronic Devices:
Ratio of Price of Device to Per Capita Income
1951
1974
1994
2007
Radio
2.0
0.5
0.02
0.005
TV Set
NA
1.9
1.2
0.37
Year’s Telephone
Service
2.5
1.0
1.0
0.12
PC
NA
NA
6.0
0.75
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What we should not do…
“You cannot bring about prosperity by discouraging thrift.
You cannot strengthen the weak by weakening the strong.
You cannot help the poor by destroying the rich.
You cannot establish sound security on borrowed money.
You cannot keep out trouble by spending more than you
earn.
You cannot build character and courage
by taking away man’s initiative and independence.
You cannot help men permanently by doing for them
What they could do for themselves.”
- Abraham Lincoln
(Source: Freedom First, May 1989)
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Dhanyawad:
Thank You
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Subsidies (Central) in crores of Rs.
Year
2004-05
‘06
‘07
‘08
‘09
Total
45,957
47,522
57,125
69,742
71,431
Of which
food
25,798
23,077
24,014
31,546
32,667
Education: (Rs. crores)
Total
Py
Sy
High
34,400
19,777
4,554
10,853
Health
2006-07
08
09
11,366
14,500
16,968
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Budgets of the Union Government
Year
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
Revenue
Capital
Total Income
Non-plan
4,34,387
1,49,000
5,83,387
4,13,527
5,25,098
1,84,275
7,09,373
5,01,849
6,02,935
1,47,949
7,50,884
5,07,498
Plan
Total
Expenses
1,69,860
5,83,387
2,07,524
7,09,373
2,43,386
7,50,884
Rev. Deficit
Fiscal Deficit
80,222
1,42,573
63,488
1,43,653
55,184
1,33,287
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