Transcript Global competitiveness of regions based on strong local

ESPON Internal Seminar 2013
“Territorial Evidence for Cohesion Policy 2014-2020
and Territorial Agenda 2020”
Workshop 4 – Global competitiveness of regions based on strong
local economies
ECR2
Adrian Healy
What constitutes a strong local economy?
“... help Member States to restore and increase growth and ensure a job rich
recovery while ensuring sustainable development, in line with Europe 2020
objectives.”
• Levels of economic output (GDP)?
• Levels of employment (’job-rich’ growth)?
• Total number of jobs
• Total number of individuals employed
• Levels of (disposable) income?
•But is it just rates of growth or an absolute value?
2
A strong economy is a resilient economy
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•
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One that is not adversely affected by an economic crisis ie does not go into
decline (Resistant)
One that is adversely affected by an economic crisis but recovers to its former
peak (Recovery)
One that is adversely affected by an economic crisis but recovers to its past
growth path (Renewal)
(Martin, 2012)
3
Resilience to the economic crisis
Total numbers employed
Chart Title
No upturn
29%
Resistance
15%
Recovery
23%
Upturn
33%
4
Resilience patterns
Total jobs
(to 2010)
Total employment
5
(to 2011)
Downturn to Recovery
6
National patterns but regional diversity
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
No upturn
Upturn
Recovery
Resistance
0
7
Components of Resilience
•Economic structure
•Sectoral diversity
•Export orientation
•Profitability and debt
•Qualifications and skills
•Labour market flexibility
•Labour market adaptability
•Savings rate
•Migration patterns
Business
Community
People
Place
•Social networks
•Behavioural norms
•Non-market economy
•Disposable income
•Urban structure
•Accessibility
•Natural environment
•Territorial characteristics
8
What do the statistics tell us?
•
Quite limited when you start to look across the EU space
• (significance of context)
•
Concentrations of construction employment problematic
•
Some evidence that higher levels of manufacturing employment
beneficial
•
Innovation strengths (including SET employment) highly correlated
to resilience
•
Lower levels of poverty associated with resilient economies
•
Lower levels of labour market participation associated with resilient
economies
9
Responses to crisis
Structures
vs
Agency
Governance responses
international
national
regional
local
Other agent responses
firms
households
communities
10
Conclusions
•
•
•
•
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The role of Governance
• In reacting to crisis
• In responding to crisis
• In preparing for crisis
The role of choices and behaviour
in influencing resilience
• Of firms
• Of households
• Of public bodies
The significance of expectations
and attitudes
The role of interconnectivity and
spillovers
The temporal dimension
Polls
In humanitarian responses such as
the Philippines typhoon, aid
agencies should
• engage in promoting longer term
change, as long as it does not
detract from the disaster response
(63%, 230 Votes)
• only think about the immediate task
of saving lives and relieving
suffering (19%, 70 Votes)
• promote change, even if it distracts
some attention/resources from the
immediate response (18%, 42
Votes)
Total Voters: 365
Source: Oxfamblogs (2 Dec 2013)
http://www.oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/?p=16 11
785