Transcript richard_hall_22jun_1415

Is the current form of Higher Education
in the UK viable? Developing a resilient
education.
Richard Hall ([email protected], @hallymk1)
Joss Winn ([email protected], @josswinn)
What is the role of higher
education, in a world that faces
significant disruption?
a slice of HE
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166 HEIs and 116 universities.
2007/8: participation for 18-30 years-old = 43%.
2008/9: 251,300 international students, EU = 117,660.
Universities employ over 372,400 staff, or 1.2% of UK
workforce.
• Responsible for 353,900 jobs in other parts of the
economy.
• UK HE generates over £59bn of output for the UK
economy, including export earnings of £5.3bn.
[UUK, 2010]
HEFCE: not much disruption
HEA: not much disruption
JISC: not much
disruption
disruption beyond HE
There is a strong correlation between energy use and
GDP. Global energy demand is on the rise yet oil
supply is forecast to decline in the next few years.
There is no precedent for oil discoveries to make up
for the shortfall, nor is there a precedent for
efficiencies to relieve demand on this scale. Public
sector debt is a burden that ultimately requires
economic growth to pay it off. Energy supply looks
likely to constrain growth.
Global emissions currently exceed the IPCC 'marker'
scenario range. The Climate Change Act 2008 has
made the -80%/2050 target law, yet this requires a
national mobilisation akin to war-time. Probably
impossible but could radically change the direction of
HE in terms of skills required and spending available.
I=PxAxT
The impact of human activities (I) is determined by the overall population
(P), the level of affluence (A) and the level of technology (T).
Even as the efficiency of technology improves, affluence and population scale up the
impacts.
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Technology as an efficiency factor?
Where did the efficiencies go?
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We are energy efficient!
“Energy efficiency improvement was an important phenomenon in
the global energy balance over the past 30 years. Without energy
efficiency improvements, the OECD nations would have used
approximately 49% more energy than was actually consumed as of
1998.”
Small print: Nevertheless,
OECD energy use continues
to rise. In 2000 it was 39%
higher than in 1973.
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Aren’t we?
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We are, aren’t we?
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Economy wide rebound effect
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Economic sense?
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more efficiently unsustainable.
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In a business-as-usual scenario, global energy demand is forecast to
rise by 40% by 2030. Fossil fuels account for over 75% of supply.
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Net Energy/Energy Returned on Energy Invested (EROIE)
(You can't run a consumer society on renewable energy)
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A 'Steady State' economy: is this capitalism?
New meanings and measures of success
 Limits on materials, energy, wastes and land use?
 More meaningful prices
 More durable, reparable goods
 Fewer status goods
 More informative advertising
 Better screening of technology
Source: http://managingwithoutgrowth.com
 More efficient capital stock
See also: Steady State Economy FAQ
 More local, less global
http://www.steadystate.org/CASSEFAQs.html
 Reduced inequality
 Less work, more leisure
 Education for life, not just work

Some possible outcomes in the next 10-20 years?
From 2014, emergency investments required in new energy sources as oil
declines and existing power stations decommissioned. We can't afford it.
 Significant increase in cost of energy = Increase in cost of living. Problem with
global food supplies.
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Increased reference to 'war on climate change‘; GDP mobilised for this 'war‘.
 IPCC 2014 report worse than 2007. UK Climate Change Act 2008 trashed.
 Shift from mitigation to adaptation efforts.
 Decrease/suspension of democracy.
 Increase in resource wars drains public funds.
 De-growth in developed countries. Decline to state of developing countries.
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2007-8 = 'peak' of public spending on education.
 Contraction in HE sector (real estate/staff/students). “Uneconomic.”
 Growth in informal and/or non-institutional education.
 Increased spending on STEM at cost of all else. Unfailing faith in technology.
 We might be happier.
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disruption within HE
• Power and control: formal and informal
education; critical pedagogy; co-production
• Neoliberalism: examples of resistance; cogovernance
• Techno-determinism: will the boffins really
save us?
What might the act of being a learner in
C21st civil society mean?
resilience
Rob Hopkins: Transition Culture
“the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance
and reorganise while undergoing change, so as
to retain essentially the same function,
structure, identity and feedbacks”
Systemic diversity, modularity, feedback
action
we have a choice between reliance on
government and its resources, and its approach
to command and control, or developing an
empowering day-to-day community resilience.
Such resilience develops engagement,
education, empowerment and encouragement
Political action or civil action? [DEMOS, nef]
Towards a curriculum for resilience?
• Complexity and increasing uncertainty in the world
demands resilience
• Integrated and social, rather than a subject-driven
• Engaging with uncertainty through projects that involve
diverse voices in civil action
• Discourses of power – co-governance?
• Authentic partnerships, mentoring and enquiry, in
method, context, interpretation and action
Resilience: what do we value?
Does higher education enable C21st society to
address disruption?
What should be done?
Licensing
This presentation is licensed under a Creative Commons, Attribution-NonCommercial-Share Alike 2.0 UK: England & Wales license
See:
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.0/uk/