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OECD SEMINAR NATIONAL RISK ASSESSMENT Jack Radisch, OECD Programme Manager John Tesh, Consultant G20/ OECD http://www.oecd.org/gov/risk/G20disasterriskmanagement.pdf Governance of risks to national security • What? Adopt a comprehensive, all-hazards approach to disaster risk assessment • How? Identify and involve key groups of stakeholders in risk assessment • Who? Assign a lead national government authority to coordinate a national risk assessment, Country risk assessments – United Kingdom Impact -- Likelihood Objective: A secure and resilient nation To identify and assess all major risks that directly affect the nation’s people, economy, infrastructure, territory and way of life, so as to be able to reduce the risks to an acceptable level, by Preventing disasters Being prepared for disasters To take advantage of the opportunities that may arise from future developments in the risk profile of the nation In the short term In the long term National Security Interests United Kingdom • • • • • People Economy Territory Infrastructure Way of life Netherlands • • • • • Territorial Economic Ecological Physical Societal Means: Risk Management 4. Evaluating outcomes and capability 1. Identifying risks 5. Risk Communication 3. Building Capability 2. Assessing risks UK National Security Risk Assessment Long term (5 - 20 years): national security risk assessment for national security strategy o every two years o since 2010 -- Objective: • to give strategic notice of threats, to enable strategies and capabilities to be planned in advance Criteria: • harm to people, economy, infrastructure, territory and way of life • Harm to UK’s wider security interests in the world UK National Risk Assessment Medium term (5 years) domestic resilience planning: National Risk Assessment o every year o since 2005 Objective • To reduce the risk of emergencies by improving security and resilience to immediate threats and hazards in the UK Criteria: • Significant harm to human welfare or the environment in a place in the UK National Risk Register Public version of National Risk Assessment Objective: • Risk communication to local and business communities, to support – Business continuity – Community resilience Criteria • As National Risk Assessment Climate change risk assessment 2012 Climate change risk assessment 2012 • Required by Climate Change Act 2008 • Every 5 years • First assessment 2012 Objective • to identify potential risks and opportunities for the UK arising from climate change. • (2012) to produce an initial snapshot of how a changing climate may affect the UK up to the year 2100 • To inform the need for adaptation in 5 sectors Criteria: impacts on the 5 sectors, with early onset impacts prioritised, in the 2020, 2050, and 2080 timeframe Benefits :- national risk assessment provides an evidence base that enables us to : avoid speculating on, or attempting to predict, future shocks in an inherently unpredictable risk landscape • adopt strategies for managing risks • prioritize risks according to the likelihood of them materialising and the impact when they do • identify the highest risks requiring special programmes of mitigation by the government • objectively quantify aspects of the risks - likelihood and consequence - needing to be planned for • communicate information on the risks widely, and so support a strategy of building resilience from the bottom up • gain consensus on all the above, where necessary . • Benefits: building resilience capabilities • risk identification and assessment • horizon-scanning and crisis management ability to respond • local response • national capability and capacity • contingency planning for top risks reducing vulnerability to harm • resilience of essential services/national infrastructure • corporate resilience • community resilience Risk Identification and Assessment – the five stages 1. Agreement on objectives, methodology and process 2. Identification of candidate risks 1. Assessment of impact 2. Assessment of likelihood 3. Consolidation of results steps 1-4: identifying and assessing risks HAZARD: ‘Likelihood’ • Historical Evidence • Predictable events, for example weather forecasts • Expert advice THREAT: ‘Plausibility’ • Intelligence about capability • Intelligence about intent • Intelligence about vulnerability Likelihood Reasonable worst case scenario RISK • Fatalities 1 2 • Casualties 1 2 • Social disruption* • Economic • Psychological 3 4 5 5 1 3 4 2 Impact 3 4 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 5 * Social disruption: • Disruption to Transport • Disruption to supplies of drinking water, fuel, gas, electricity, communications, money • Disruptions to schools, health services • Environmental damage • Evacuation Step 5. Consolidating the results Or: how assessing the risk can help to reduce the risks • Assigning priorities • Developing strategic concepts for managing the risks • Quantifying the capability needed to mitigate the risks • Assisting sector- specific programmes 2010 national security risk assessment - tier one risks Long term (5 - 20 years) -- • international terrorism affecting the UK or its interests, including a chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear attack by terrorists • a major accident or natural hazard which requires a national response, such as severe coastal flooding affecting three or more regions of the UK or an influenza pandemic. • hostile attacks upon UK cyber space by other states and large scale cyber crime • an international military crisis drawing in the UK, its allies as well as other states and nonstate actors the UK national security council considered these risks should be tier 1 risks –the highest priorities for UK national security looking ahead, taking into account both likelihood and impact Step 5. Consolidating the results • Assigning priorities • Developing strategic concepts for managing the risks • Quantifying the capability needed to mitigate the risks • Assisting sector- specific programmes Risk Management Strategies the four T’s • Treating the risk – Preventive controls – Corrective controls – Detective controls • Transferring the risk – Insurance – Third party • Terminating the risk • Tolerating the risk National risk assessment – 5 year priorities for domestic resilience Medium term (5 years) domestic resilience planning • • • UK risk profile affected by – climate change – global instability – networked, interdependent, complex society – risk of cascade failures UK risk profile unlikely to change: – diverse, – No single risk dominating; – complex and unpredictable, – links randomly and suddenly emerging between events. Requiring in the short to medium term – generic emergency response capabilities – crisis management – specific plans for catastrophic emergencies – improved social-economic resilience, and – keeping an eye on the risks 5. Consolidating the results How assessing the risk can help to reduce the risks • Assigning priorities • Developing strategic concepts for managing the risks • Quantifying the capability needed to mitigate the risks • Assisting sector- specific programmes Planning Assumptions National risk assessment Risk management strategy Planning assumptions Capability programmes UK National Resilience Planning Assumptions Functional Planning Assumptions Human Fatalities with Infectious Disease People with Illness Human Fatalities caused by Conventional Incidents Human Casualties caused by Conventional Incidents Biological Release Radiological Release Chemical Releases Debris / Rubble Major Flooding Displaced Persons Influx of British Nationals Animal Diseases Essential Service Planning Assumptions Water Supply Transport Oil and Fuel Gas Electricity Telecoms Health Financial Services UK National Resilience Planning Assumptions Functional Planning Assumptions Human Fatalities with Infectious Disease People with Illness Human Fatalities caused by Conventional Incidents Human Casualties caused by Conventional Incidents Biological Release Radiological Release Chemical Releases Debris / Rubble Major Flooding Displaced Persons Influx of British Nationals Animal Diseases Essential Service Planning Assumptions Water Supply Transport Oil and Fuel Gas Electricity Telecoms Health Financial Services Step 5. Consolidating the results • Assigning priorities • Developing strategic concepts for managing the risks • Quantifying the capability needed to mitigate the risks • Assisting sector- specific programmes Assisting sector-specific programmes Government • National capability and capacity for top risks • Regional/local Government • Health sector Industry – Corporate security and resilience for national infrastructure • Energy • Food • Water • Telecommunications • Finance • Transport Local • Business continuity for small businesses • community resilience NATIONAL RISK ASSESSMENT