Transcript Characteristics of TSA for Slovenia in year 2003

The Slovene project of
implementation of TSA
Institute for the Socio-Economic and
Business Evaluation
Faculty of Economics,
University of Ljubljana
dr. Hugo Zagoršek
Prepared for the CEI meeting, Dolenjske toplice, 17th-18th October, 2007
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The structure of presentation
1.
2.
3.
4.
History of the TSA implementation in Slovenia
Basic principles and sources used
Challenging issues
Techniques for estimating same-day tourists’ consumption
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Characteristics of TSA for Slovenia in year 2003
Physical flows
Internal tourism consumption
Main tourist aggregates
Recommendations
Lessons learned
TSA for 2003:
methodlogy
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Phases of TSA implementation in
Slovenia
Ministry of the Economy, Directorate of tourism
International Institute for
Tourism
Feasibility
study
2001
ISBE, Faculty of
Economics
TSA for year
2000
2004
TSA for year 2003
and extrapolation
for year 2006
2007
Statistical
Office of the
Republic of
Slovenia
TSA estimated
regularly at 3
year intervals
2009
ISBE
Basic principles and specifics of TSA
estimation in Slovenia
Principles:
Specifics:
• Following RMF as
closely as possible
1) Small and open economy
• Based on previous
studies
3) Large number of day tourists
(both foreign and domestic)
• Upgrading
methodology and
sources
• Reliability
• Transparency
2) Diverse attractions and activities
4) Large number of transit tourists
5) Small number of large tourist
companies – accessible for
personal interview
6) Good existing statistical coverage
of tourism
7) Shadow economy?
Secondary sources
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Statistical Office of the Republic of
Slovenia:
1. National Accounts
2. Accommodation facilities, tourist
arrivals and overnight stays
3. Survey on tourism travels of
domestic population
4. Survey on foreign tourists in the
Republic of Slovenia in summer
season 2003
5. Visits to selected tourist sights,
museums and galleries,
swimming facilities, casinos ..
6. Nautical tourism
7. Survey of border crossings
8. Slovenian travel agencies
Slovenian Tourist organization
(visitor surveys)
• Hiking and mountaineering
• Sightseeing
• Spa tourists
• Cycling, golf
• …
Balance of payments
AJPES
1. Accounting database on
Slovenian organizations
Office for gaming supervision:
• Data on gambling in
Slovenia
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Primary sources
1. Interviews with experts from various fields
2. Disaggregated data on types of visitors and
their consumption provided by major
tourist companies in each TSA category
3. Data on operating margins and expenditure
structure provided by major tourist
agencies
4. Data on the place of the residence of
domestic visitors to casinos and
gambling parlors
5. Daily data on the number of cars passing
toll stations in Slovenian highways (DARS),
data from car counting (DRSC).
Crucial for
estimation at
the lower
levels of
aggregation.
Secondary
data is
usually too
much
aggregated
for TSA
requirements
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Challenging issues
1. Travel agency, tour operator and tourist guide services
• Net valuation – difficult to get data
• Could not disaggregate in 3 subcategories (travel agency, tour
operator, tourist info and guides)
2. Sports and recreational services – many providers, many sources,
missing and conflicting information
3. Existing data and surveys not suitable for TSA – not enough
monetary information; different categorizations
4. Treatment of goods (e.g. gasoline) – only trade margins
5. Tourism social transfers – what to include and how to estimate it
6. Second home ownership – imputed rents
7. Outbound tourism consumption (TSA Table 3) – could get the total
consumption estimate, difficult to disaggregate
8. Collecting primary data is high resource consuming activity
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Techniques for estimating the
consumption of same-day tourists (I)
Foreign same-day visitors:
the problem of detection
1) Sightseeing: based on
survey (STO)
2) Activities: based on
survey (STO, SORS)
3) Gambling: combination of
survey and expert
estimates
4) Transportation: company
records (e.g. airlines),
border surveys
Distinction between same-day
foreign tourists and transit
tourists – purpose of visit
Transit visitors
Types of expenditures:
1) Gasoline
2) Road tools
3) Food, beverages, etc. (convenience
shopping)
Methods:
1) Cross-border traffic survey as a baseline
estimate
2) Traffic-flows estimates and traffic-counting
data to determine major transit tourists routes
3) Subtraction of other types of traffic
4) Estimate consumption using data from gas
station operators, toll-roads and expert
interviews
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Techniques for estimating the
consumption of same-day tourists (II)
Domestic same-day visitors: the
problem of definition.
•
How to operationalize the definition of
“usual environment”?
Method:
•
How to apply it in practice?
•
Survey data on the
number of day trips
Most problematic categories:
•
•
•
•
•
Data from other
surveys
•
Interviews with the
experts
Food and beverage serving services
Cultural services
Sports and recreational services
Gambling
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SLO TSA 2003
overview
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Characteristics of TSA for Slovenia
in year 2003
1. Completed in 2007. Estimates for 2003 and 2006 (extrapolation).
2. Harmonized with national accounts, but based on additional
primary and secondary data
3. Harmonized to a greatest extent possible with the international
guidelines (RMF)
4. Inspired by the previous national satellite accounts (for year 2000)
but incomparable to them because of different methodological
assumptions and different data sources
5. Extended to include calculation of indirect effects: Value added
and GDP produced in the national economy due to tourism
6. Estimated TSA tables 1 – 7 and 10. Developed methodology for
estimating TSA tables 8 & 9 (not yet estimated)
7. Published in the comprehensive report in Slovenian language with
English summary
Physical flows – arrivals of tourists
ISBE
2.500
Total
Domestic t.
Foreign t.
Arrivals (1.000)
2.000
2.086
2.162
2.246
2.341
2.482
1.957
1.658
1.500
2.395
Foreign t.
1.425
Domestic t.
1.000
500
0
1991
1996
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
ISBE
Arrivals and overnights, 2003
Foreign
tourists in
Slovenia
Domestic tourists
Domestic tourists
abroad
1.373.000
873.000
2.114.197
4.175.000
3.327.000
9.880.868
5.255.557
13.163.948
Number of trips
Number of
overnights (official
statistics)
Number of
overnights (from
survey)
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Internal tourism consumption
€ 2.167
Other
components
of tourism
consumption
Domestic
tourism
consumption
€ 1.158
€ 933
Tourists
43%
Same-day
visitors
Inbound tourism
consumption
Inbound
tourism
consumption
50%
Domestic tourism
consumption
Total
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Structure of internal tourism
consumption
Non-specific products
Connected products
6.2-Gambling
6.1-Sports and recreational sport services
5-Cultural services
3-Passanger transport services
2-Food and beverage serving services
1-Accomodation services
Inbound tourism
consumption
Domestic tourism
consumption
ISBE
Key tourism aggregates for Slovenia
2003 (m€)
Tourism value added
Share of tourism value added in the total VA of the economy
824
3,82%
Tourism characteristic industries' VA
678
Other industries' VA
146
Share of tourism characteristic industries in total tourism VA
82,26%
Tourism GDP
1.229
Share of tourism in national GDP (%)
4,94%
GDP of Tourism characteristic industries
766
GDP of other industries
462
Share of tourism characteristic industries in total tourism GDP
62,37%
Employment in tourism characteristic industries
30.644
ISBE
Assessment of total economic
impact (m€)
Tourism value added without domestic business travel
706
Tourism GDP without domestic business travel
1.093
Total output of the national economy due to tourism
2.540
Value added produced in the national economy due to
tourism
Share of total national value added (%)
1.426
6,60%
GDP of the national economy due to tourism
1.921
Share of total national GDP (%)
7,72%
ISBE
Recommendations for SLO TSA
1) Applying TSA methodology to narrower segments of tourism
sector
2) Estimating regional TSA for Slovenia.
3) The needs of TSA should be taken into account in all tourismrelated statistical activities, especially survey preparation.
4) Tourism field surveys should gather more monetary data,
instead of being mostly limited to physical indicators.
5) More diligence should be focused on same-day visitors.
6) Transit tourism should be researched more in depth.
7) TSA should be extended with estimation of the total “leisure”
services and expenditures
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Lessons learned
1) TSA is the most comprehensive methodology for estimating
the economic impact of tourism
2) It is difficult to operationalize in practice, since it demands
plenty of data, that is not usually available
3) It is necessary to use many assumptions and rough
estimates
4) Different researchers may use different methodologies. That
may damage the comparability of results over time
5) Transparency of estimating methods and procedures is
important
6) TSA estimation is an on-going learning process
Discussion?
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Contact information:
dr. Hugo Zagorsek
Institute for socioeconomic
and business evaluation
Faculty of Economics
University of Ljubljana
[email protected]
+386 41 370 161