Transcript bangkok wkshp pres 1

HANDBOOK
FOR ESTIMATING
SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND
ENVIRONMENTAL
EFFECTS OF DISASTERS
World Bank / ADPC Workshop
"RECONSTRUCTION NEEDS ANALYSIS:PLANNING AND
IMPLEMENTATION"
ECLAC’S PRESENTATIONS
ADPC-WB Workshop - August 13-15, 2002 / Bangkok,
Thailand
Session 1: Presentation of ECLAC
Methodology
 Session 2: Sectoral Revision of
Assessment in ECLAC Methodology
 Session 2 Cont: Global/Macro Effects of
a Disaster in ECLAC Methodology

Presentation of the ECLAC
methodology

General considerations
 Valuation as a tool for reconstruction,
mitigation and planning resilience
 Usefulness of historical records
 Methodological considerations




Definitions: risk, vulnerability, mitigation recurrence,
etc.
Basic concepts: direct (assets/capital), indirect
(flows/economical, financial, fiscal)
Valuation criteria
Sources of information: remote, statistical, direct
observation, surveys, second hand, etc.
WHAT IS IT:

A tool for the socio-economic and environmental
assessment of disasters
 Multi-sectoral and multidisciplinary damage evaluation
and quantification method for disaster affected sectors
 Standard sectoral procedures that allows comparability
of results
 Instrument for the decision making process and for
policy formulation as it identifies more severely affected
sectors, geographical areas and vulnerable groups
 Conceptual improvement for measuring aspects not
included in national accounting and assessing specific
vulnerability (of social groups, such as women and th
environment)
WHAT IT DOES:

Allows projecting future performance of the affected
economy in the short and medium term, and implement
the necessary corrective economic policy measures
 Allows to determine the State’s capacity to face
reconstruction tasks and determine needs for
cooperation and international financing
 Facilitates training in damage valuation and formulation
of mitigation strategies
 Involves affected population with relevant authorities
and aid providers
 Puts in evidence the systemic character of the
development process and the interaction among sectors
and stakeholders
Social
sectors
Infrastructure
and services
Productive
sectors
Environment
Dynamic interaction between sectors and
activities with natural occurrences:
Vulnerability and mitigation
Landslips,
Mudslides and avalanches
silt deposits
and erosion
Groundswells,
sea surges
and high
waves
Flooding and
rain
Vicious circle: Man, Environment,
Disasters

Human actions
progressively
deteriorate the
environment
 Natural phenomena
affect the
environment
(positively /
negatively)
 Impact of disasters
tends to increase
NATURAL
PHENOMENA
HUMAN
ACTIONS
ENVIRONMENT
BREAKING THE CYCLE OF CONFLICT AND
RESUMING THE PATH OF DEVELOPMENT
The World Bank’s Conflict Prevention and Reconstruction Team, SDV
SECURITY
(Reduced Vulnerability)
*
SOCIAL
STABILITY
GOOD
GOVERNANCE
ECONOMIC
RECOVERY
SEQUENCE OF EFFECTS
PHENOMENON:
EFFECTS:
direct
indirect
Characteristics
(physical description,
typology and context)
LINKAGES
Menace
Vulnerability
Risk
Impact/Benefit of reconstruction (global, by sector)
Reduce vulnerability
Synergies for reconstruction: “appropriation” of risk by
affected/menaced population (community, social group, sector,
country)
SOME DEFINITIONS IN
DISASTERS


PREVENTION
 the “before”
actions

Actions (programmes, projects)
with the objective of anticipating
and counteract the negative
consequence an event may have
(hydro-meteorological, climatic,
seismic, tectonic, geological,
even technological, industrial or
“complex”
It implies namely operational and
organisation actions, training of
potentially affected groups and
population to face a disaster’s
consequences.
SOME DEFINITIONS IN
DISASTERS (2)


MITIGATION
 encompasses
actions “before”,
“during” and
“after”

Actions (programmes, project)
with the objective of
counteracting (reducing the
negative impact) of an
occurrence.
Includes allocation of
resources to reinforce
structures, redesign or alter
existing elements to reduce
vulnerability in addition to
training and organisation
(including at the community
level)
SOME DEFINITIONS IN
DISASTERS (3)

VULNERABILITY
 calculation made
on the basis or
recurrence and
severity of
disastrous events


Risk factors or exposure to
danger of existing physical
structures (buildings, houses,
etc.) and basic infrastructure
(lifelines, transportation and
communications, etc.).
Conditions of human
settlements and localisation
of productive activities
(primary, industrial,l tertiary
or services) and their linkage
among them and with the
environment.
SOME DEFINITIONS IN
DISASTERS (4)

DISASTER
REDUCTION
 encompasses
actions
“before”,
“during” and
“after”


Actions (programmes, project)
with the objective of reducing
vulnerability and exposure to
risk in the face of the interaction
between human action and
natural foreseeable or recurrent
events.
Implies the use (design and
enforcement) of construction
codes, land-use regulation,
space planning, institutional
arrangements and community
involvement
SOME DEFINITIONS IN
DISASTERS (5)

RISK
MANAGEMENT
 (actions to be

carried out

“before” with
consequences
“during” and
“after”)


Pro-active strategy (in contrast to
re-active response) to reduce
vulnerability and counteract risk
factors
Its objective is disaster reduction
Is not a sector action but a global
set of actions encompassing all
sectors, beginning with sound
environmental management
Is not a conservation policy per-se
but requires sustainability criteria
both in terms of natural resources
and human intervention.
SOME DEFINITIONS IN
DISASTERS (6)

The response strategy (re-active
 DISASTER
strategy) to, after the occurrence
MANAGEMENT of a disaster, intends to counteract
its more immediate negative
 actions to be
impact and prevent more severe
carried “during” effects in the short term.
and the
 Includes emergency actions
(search and rescue, immediate
immediate
assistance, shelter, sanitary and
(short-term)
health campaigns, rehabilitation of
“after”
lifelines, assessment of
emergency needs and first
appraisal of reconstruction
requirements.
SEQUENCE OF DISASTER VALUATION
VALUE OF DAMAGES
By economic actors and sectors
Public
Private
REPLACEMENT COSTS
By economic sectors and actors
Public
Private
TECHNOLOGICAL IMRPOVEMENT
REINFORCEMENT/REINGENEERING
PREVENTION
MITIGATION
Scheduling
Input availability
Material
Human
Finacial
Macroeconomic impact
RECONSTRUCTION REQUIREMENTS
By economic and sector actors
Public
Private
At present value costs
Includes asset depreciation
Considers the state of asset at time of damage
Discounts lack of maintenantce
Absorption capacity
Material
Work force
Institutuional
Project formulation
Reconstrction and replacement
Mitigation and reinforcement
Prevention
MACROECONOMIC VIABILITY
SUSTAINABILITY
CREDIBILITY
Financial implications
Public
Private
Domerstic resources
Credits
Donations
Insurance and reinsurance
External resources
Credits
Donations
Concepts
Direct damages
 Impact on assets




Infrastructure
Capital
Stocks
Occur immediately
during or after the
phenomenon that
caused the disaster
Indirect Damages
 Effects on flows



Production
Reduced income and
increased expenses
Are perceived after the
phenomenon, for a timeperiod that can last from
weeks to months, till
recuperation occurs
Measuring the damage “delta” or
damage gap
Pre-existing
conditions (ex ante)
The measure
Of direct and indirect damages
Upon the pre-existing situation
(sector by sector baselines) is aggregated into the
national accounts and determines the resulting disastercaused scenario, as the gap over the expected
performance prior to the event. Several scenarios may
be outlined, based on the assumptions made for the
Expected
Disaster impact
reconstruction process
performance (without
(ex post)
disaster) 3-5 years
3-5 years
D = Va – Vb
Where Va es the initial condition expected for a
variable (sectoral, weighed) and Vb is the
discounted effect of the disaster.
K
= Ka – Kb
Measures the capital (assets) lost, estimated by
compiling direct damages computed sector by
sector.
Y = Ya – Yb
Measures the production/income losses
The capital/income-production ratio is
generally assumed not to vary
substantively as a result of the disaster
THE “PERVERSE EFFECT” OF DISASTERS ON GROSS
CAPITAL FORMATION IN A SMALL ECONOMY
Adapted from Mora, “El impacto de los desastres, aspectos sociales, polítifcos económicos, ambientales y su relación con el desarrollo de nuestros países
GROSS CAPITAL FORMATION
(BID, 1999)
*
*
TIME
DISASTER
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
INDUSTRIALIZED
COUNTRIES
THE EFFECT OF SUCCESSIVE DISASTERS ON
CAPITAL FORMATION
GROSS CAPITAL FORMATION
Adapted from Mora, “El impacto de los desastres, aspectos sociales, polítifcos económicos, ambientales
*
y su relación con el desarrollo de nuestros países (BID, 1999)
DISASTER
DEVELOPING COUNTRIIES
INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES
*
*
*
*
TIME
Know the pre-existing situation
Identify the core development factors of the economy
Identify the main characteristics at the time of the
disaster: face of the economic cycle, seasonal
elements, indebtedness level, domestic savings, FDI
flows, etc.
 Access the macroeconomic data bases from national
authorities, academic analysts and/or consultants and
advisors in the country
 Identify existing econometric models for the local
economy
 Identify if input-output tables are available or determine
weighing factors that indicate intersectoral linkages.


Acknowledge the expected or projected outcome in
the absence of disaster
Obtain from government, academics and/or advisors
and private consultants the existing scenarios or short
and medium term projections before the disaster
 Build a price table at current value for the disaster
period with at least five year projections. There may
have been more than one pre-disaster scenario for the
main economic variables
 Build a constant-value (real magnitude) serie for the
main variables (using the country’s base year, either in
local currency or US dollars
 Establish the rate of exchange that will be used for the
valuation

Determine the situation caused by
the disaster
Stemming from sector valuations assess the valueadded changes expected for every sector in the short
term and for a medium-term period to be agreed (3-5
years or more)
 Supported by input-output tables or sector weighing
factors determine the projection of damages of one
setor to the others
 A damage scenario is built (taking into account the
measured losses at replacement value) : variations in
the main economic gaps is highlighted: external sector,
fiscal deficit, internal equilibrium (prices, exchange
rate, etc.)

EXTERNAL IMPACT
MACROECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS
Weighted by economic models and
input / output tables available
SECTOR
PRODUCTIVE SECTORS
Agriculture (includes cattle raising,
fisheries and forestry)
Industry
Commerce
Services
- Financial and banking
- Tourism
- Personal and other
INFRASTRUCTURE
Water (drinking, irrigation, drainage,
sanitation and sewerage)
Energy (generation, transmission,
distribution)
- Electricity
- Other (petroleum, gas, etc.)
Transport and communications
SOCIAL ASPECTS
Education
Health
Housing
Cultural heritage
Social fabric
ENVIRONMENTAL ASPECTS
TOTAL
GOVERNMENT SECTOR
IMPLICATIONS
- Revenues
- Expenditures
III. MACRO / GLOBAL IMPACT (current
value)
1. GDP
External Balance (A+B)
- Exports
- Imports
A - TRADE BALANCE
B - CURRENT AND CAPITAL ACCOUNT
BALANCE
- Net loans (considering service and
repayment)
- Net donations
- Net transfers (private)
- Other net incoming resources
(insurance and reinsurance payments)
2. FISCAL BALANCE
- Revenues
- Expenditures
3. CAPITAL ACCOUNT
- Gross capital formation
- domestic investment
- foreign direct investment
Ex-ante
situation
(current
period)
Ex-post
situation
(present
period)
Short/medium
term
projections
Future Scenarios


1st. Scenario: damage assessment and event’s impact,
without including reconstruction actions
Alternative reconstruction scenarios






Taking into account no longer the replacement but the reconstruction
costs
Emerging reconstruction priorities, sector by sector
The emerging reconstruction strategies in the immediate weeks after
the disaster
The economy’s absorption capacity of foreign resources
The economy’s capacity to execute projects
The performance of key economic variables in the face of an increase
or impending reorientation of resources for reconstruction: interest
rates, indebtedness, inputs and production means availability (raw
materials, capital goods, domestic saving, labour force, etc.)
Sector by sector valuation methodology

Social Sectors

Productive sectors
 Goods: agriculture,
 Housing
industry
 Health
 Services: commerce,
 Education, culture,
tourism, etc.
sports
 Global impact
 Infrastructure
 On the environment
 Transport and
 Gender perspective
communications
 Employment and social
 Energy
conditions
 Water and sewerage
 Macroeconomic
assessment