Transcript Lebanon

Lebanon - ENP
UNEP Initiative on Capacity Building
for Integrated Assessment and Planning
for Sustainable Development
Mid-term Review Meeting
Geneva, February 16-17, 2005
Brief Description of the Project
General objective and expected outcome:
• Support and enhance national planning
process,
• Provide decision makers with an assessment
of potential impacts that could be integrated
in future planning processes,
• Develop a standard approach to assessing
trade-related issues on different social,
environmental and economic issues.
Brief Description of the Project
Specific objective and expected outcome:
• Perform an integrated assessment of trade
liberalization with the EU on specific sectors of
the economy
• Identify trade-environmental-social interlinkages
• Identify national priorities, outline action plans
• Government institutions leading the project:
MOET,MOE
Description of the Project Process
• Initiation of the project: Project headed by MOET,
in collaboration with MOE, with the technical
assistance of UNEP
• Organizational management Multidisciplinary team
Development Economist
Environmental Economist
EU Unit
Economic Research Center
Trade Specialist
Legal expert
Description of the Project Process
Activities undertaken so far:
Collection of all available data and sources
Mapping of economic, social environmental situation
Identification of key issues, stakeholders
Methodology and tools for the assessment
Country report & Assessment of Planning Process
Key Stakeholders Involvement
MOET / UNEP
Civil Society
MOE
Public Sector
-Ministries
-Municipalities
-Social NGOs
-Environmental NGOs
-UNDP
-Academics
-World Bank
Private Sector
-Chambers
-Associations
Description and Rationale
of the Planning Process
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Initiation: - Lebanese gvt and EU
- Consultations with stakeholders
Current situation analyzed: Ad hoc studies and
consultations
Design of strategies: consultations & SWOT analysis
(assessment of main risks in the non-optimality of trade
liberalization)
Design of actions: Grace period agreed upon, detailed
negotiations on specific products
Implementation arrangements: Technical assistance
from the EU for trade facilitation to overcome these
challenges and maximize benefits
Description and Rationale
of the Planning Process
Main gaps and weaknesses of the substance of the Planning process
• Structural:
– absence of a formal institutional framework guide to monitor trade lib.
– Consultations with key stakeholders are not regular
– Lack of participation: minority groups (farmers in poor rural areas)
inaccessible
– Absence of social and environmental assessments
• Technical:
– shortage of human resources, data very limited
– Absence of integration of ESE issues and their linkages within sustainability
framework
– no formal institution allowing for horizontal integration of the planning
process
Tools and methods
used to overcome the weaknesses
QUALITATIVE
-SWOT analysis
-consultations
-renegotiations
QUANTITATIVE
-Customs data
-Analysis of trade patterns
-general environmental
studies
Main advantages and shortcomings of these tools
-increase transparency, and technical analysis
-didn’t overcome the weaknesses:
lack of environmental and social assessments; minority
groups excluded; ESE linkages with SD not addressed;
irregularities of consultations
Key Economic, Social
and Environmental Issues
Association Agreement
Environmental issues
Economic issues
•overuse of resources
•degradation of land
& coastal areas
•air pollution
•industrial pollution
•Water pollution
•biodiversity
•Trade liberalization
•Increased Trade with EU
•Increase local production
•Promote business environment
•Attract FDI
•Facilitate technology transfer
•Increase productivity
•Competitiveness of
productive sectors
Social issues
•Unemployment
•Standards of living
•Access to basic needs
•Access to health
Description of AA
AA consists on 3 major components:
Political and Security Issues
Partnership social/human affairs
Economic & Financial Partnership
Economic Issues
Agriculture: -6% of GDP ; 20% of Foreign Trade
-subject to non-trade barriers from the EU
-low subsidies compared to EU
Industry:
-19% of GDP; Increased share in trade
-subject to non-trade barriers from
-Largely SMEs with no economies o
Services:
- Trade accounts for 21% of GDP
Social Issues
• Unemployment
- 11.2%, the youth, women and unskilled
-structural, long periods, education-job market gap
• Standards of living
-widening social disparities (regional, income,
access to health and education)
• Access to basic needs
-7.1% of households suffer from very low
satisfaction of basic needs mainly in rural areas
Environmental Issues
Environment:
• overuse of resources
• degradation of land and coastal areas
• air pollution
• waste management , industrial pollution
Inter-linkages
Trade with EU
Social
Environment
Inter-linkages
• Industry
-19% of GDP, 14% of total labor force, $1.1
billion exports.
-composition of industrial produce will be
affected by trade
- will impact the labor market
-redistribution effect
-environmental effect
Preliminary Results
of using tools and methods
- Tools & Methods used:
- Informal consultations within MOET
- Data collection
- Qualitative analysis
- Preliminary results:
- Country report assessment
Challenges
• The neighborhood policy scope and potential dynamic impacts
• The country’s economic ability to optimize the benefits of trade
liberalization and to conduct necessary structural adjustments to
be able to cope with it
• Vertical integration
• Having a specific action plan
• Maximize stakeholder involvement and interest
• Measurement of the inter-linkage btw social and economic, and
how the social and the environment could impede the positive
impacts of trade liberalization if not taken seriously
• Identification of priorities and access to minority groups
• Ability to assess key sustainability indicators (poor and irregular),
to identify comparative advantages and potential impacts on
social-economic/environmental sectors
Planned Activities and Next Steps
database
CGE
Action
Plan
Country report
Workshops
Results of CGE
Policy Implications
The tools will be selected in consultation with experts and key stakeholders
Planned Activities and Next Steps
• Environmental assessment: risk assessment;
identification of key sustainability issues
• Social assessment: stakeholder analysis and
mapping
• Economic assessment: CGE, Scenarios
development
• Integrative assessment: inter-sectoral causeeffect chains
• Sustainability assessment
• Participatory process: steering committee- focus
groups- stakeholders workshops
Thank you for your attention!