Transcript Folie 1

First Presentation
The Impact of Trade Liberalization
on Economic Growth and Development
Mario Liebensteiner
Johannes Kepler University, Linz
Supervisor: Dr. Michael Landesmann
2009-05-26
1
Structure
• Overall Research Question
– Does Trade Liberalization promote Economic Growth
and Development?
– Distinction of Growth and Development
– Call for Further Research (Hallak, 2004; Nouzard & Powell,
2004; Squalli & Wilson, 2006)
• 3 Main Parts
– Literature Overview, History
– Econometric Approach
– Country Studies: China, India
2
First Part
• Motivation
• Literature Overview
– History of Trade Liberalization
• Evaluation of the Recent Discussion
– Pro-Liberalization and Critics
• Recent Research by Other Authors
– Growth and Development
3
Second Part
• Econometric Approach
• Cross-Country Regressions
– Growth as Dependent Variable
(GDPp.c.)it  0  1GDPp.c.it 0  2 INVit  3OPENit   Zilt   it
l
l
– Development Variables as Dependent Variables
e.g. INEQ  D   GDPp.c.   GDPp.c.2   OPEN   Z  
it
i
1
it
2
3
it
lit
it
l
l
• Regressions on other Development Variables
4
Second Part (cont. (1))
– 5 Year Averages to Control for Autocorrelation (to
capture Long-Term Effects) and Measurement Errors
(Gourdon, et.al. 2006)
– Maybe Lagged Variables and Interactive Terms
Measures of Trade Openness
•
•
•
•
Trade Intensity: (Exp+Imp)/GDP (Nouzard & Powell, 2004)
Composite Trade Intensity (Squalli & Wilson, 2006)
Black Market Premium (Dollar, 1992; Nouzard & Powell, 2004)
SW-Indicator (Sachs & Warner, 1995)
– Trade Policy Variables
• Tariffs and Non-Tariff Barriers (Rodrik, 2000)
5
Second Part (cont. (2))
• Data Sources:
– Penn World Tables, Barro-Lee-Education Data
– IMF, UN, World Bank, FIW, GDN, WIID…
• Robustness Tests
– Comparing Openness Ranks of Countries with
different Data Sets
– Estimation of Same Equations but different Data Sets
(Squalli & Wilson, 2006)
6
Third Part
• Individual Country Cases: China & India
– Econometrics rather difficult
– Thus Descriptive Analysis
• Why country studies?
– Interesting to Look at Growth and Development
Variables in a More Complex Context -> Detailed
Insight
• Health, Poverty, Education, Urbanization, Employment,
Wealth, Regional Inequality
7
Third Part (cont. (2))
• Different Developments
– esp. Employment, Inequality of Incomes, Regional
Inequality
• Different Strategies
– Both Countries are Successfully Integrated
– Benefit from International Trade
– Neither Followed Orthodox Trade Policies (Stiglitz, 2005)
8
Third Part (cont. (1))
• India
– Gradual Liberalization Strategy, Low-Tech Exports in
Goods and Services, High-Tech Service Exports only
in IT-Sector (Bussièr & Mehl, 2008)
• China
– Gradually Implemented Trade Strategy, Carefully
Sequenced (Stiglitz, 2005), High-Tech Exports in Goods
– South-West Industrialization, Imports from emerging
Asian Economies to Re-Export to Mature Economies
– Important Trade Partner for India (but Reverse is Not
True) (Bussièr & Mehl, 2008)
9