Transcript Local Employment Dynamics (LED)

Local Employment Dynamics (LED)
&
OnTheMap
Nick Beleiciks
Oregon Census State Data Center Meeting
April 14, 2009
What is LED?
• Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD)
• Program within the U.S. Census Bureau
• Local Employment Dynamics (LED)
• Partnership between the states and Census
• Creates new information about the labor market
• Low cost
• No additional respondent burden
• Protects confidentiality
How To Describe LED?
• “A Census – State Partnership”
The folks at LEHD
• “Sexy”
OnTheMap user during a Webinar
• “LED is a thousand answers looking for a thousand
questions”
Tom Tveidt of SYNEVA Economics LLC
http://lehd.did.census.gov/led/
The Products…
• Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI)
• 30 Indicators
• QWI Online
• 8 Indicators – Easy to access and use
• OnTheMap
• Maps and much more!
• Industry Focus
• Ranks industries by the 8 Indicators
• Older Worker Profiles
• “Old” data
How It Works…
• States provide quarterly administrative data
• Employer locations, number of employees, payroll
• Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages
(QCEW)
• Individual earnings and employers
• Unemployment Insurance “Wage File”
• LEHD matches state employment data with
demographic (age & gender) and residency information
about individual workers
• Social Security Administration records
Who’s Involved?
What Workers Are Included In LED?
• Workers covered under Oregon’s Unemployment
Insurance (UI) program
• About 1.7 million
• Who is not covered?
• Federal employees
• Railroad workers
• Some agricultural workers
• Student workers
The FUZZ
(data police)
• LED maintains confidentiality about workers and
employers
• They “fuzz” some data to ensure confidentiality
• Unsure how the folks at LEHD do this
• This leads to some hesitation for some new users
• Fuzz information available for QWI
Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI)
• Available from the Cornell VirtualRDC website
http://www.vrdc.cornell.edu/news/
• 30 employment and earnings indicators
• Year – Oregon goes back to 1991
• Quarter – Partial information for 2q2008
• Gender – male, female, or both
• Age – 14-99, 14-18, 19-21, 22-24, 25-34, 35-44,
45-54, 55-64, 65-99
• Geography – County and Metro and Micro Areas
• Industry – 4-digit NAICS level
Types of Fuzz Codes
-2 No employers operate in this category during this quarter
-1 Required historical of future wage record data are not available
0 No employment in this age, sex category
1 The value is not significantly affect by the disclosure protections
5 This value has been suppressed because it does not meet
Census Bureau publication standards
9 The value has been significantly distorted to protect confidentiality
Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI)
Example
New Hires in Oregon's Health Care Industries
First Quarter 2008
Industry
Health care and social assistance
Ambulatory health care services
Nursing and residential care facilities
Social assistance
Hospitals
All Industries
Stable New Hires
Number of Average
New Monthly
Hires Earnings
14,575
4,445
4,074
3,755
2,301
117,432
All Workers
Average
Monthly Turnover
Earnings
Rate
$2,078
$2,658
$1,599
$1,261
$3,216
$3,393
$4,341
$2,009
$2,037
$4,264
7%
7%
12%
9%
4%
$1,921
$3,454
9%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Local Employment Dynamics
QWI Online
• 8 Employment Indicators:
Total
Employment
Net Job Flows
Job Creation
New Hires
Separations
Turnover
Avg Monthly
Earnings
Avg New Hire
Earnings
• Available for same groups as regular QWI
• Easy to use online tool at LEHD Website:
http://lehd.did.census.gov/led/datatools/qwiapp.html
QWI Online
Example
Jobs and New Hires for Workers 65 and Over by Industry
Oregon - First Quarter 2008
Industry
Share of
Share of 65 and Over
65 and Over 65 and Over 65 and Over 65 and Over
New Hire
Jobs
Jobs
New Hires
New Hires
Rate*
All Industries
58,557
100%
5,809
100%
2.6%
Education and Health Services
Retail Trade
Professional and Business Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Manufacturing
Other Services
Financial Activities
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Wholesale Trade
Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities
State and Local Government
Information
12,714
7,267
6,883
6,042
4,966
3,450
3,384
3,047
2,830
2,596
2,520
2,120
733
22%
12%
12%
10%
8%
6%
6%
5%
5%
4%
4%
4%
1%
820
447
987
848
301
283
271
834
434
210
180
102
77
14%
8%
17%
15%
5%
5%
5%
14%
7%
4%
3%
2%
1%
2.5%
1.7%
2.2%
2.2%
1.9%
3.1%
2.9%
9.0%
2.8%
2.7%
3.0%
2.6%
1.6%
* New hires 65 and over divided by new hires of all ages.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Local Employment Dynamics
OnTheMap – Version 3
• Adds GIS capability to LED data
• Fewer indicators – more geographic detail
• Years – 2002 – 2006
• Quarter – 2nd Quarter only
• Age – 30 or younger, 31 to 54, 55 or older
• Wages – < $1,200, $1,201 to $3,400, > $3,400
• Geography – Down to Census Block Groups
• Industry – 2-digit NAICS level
• Industry Groups
• Goods producing
• Trade, transportation and utilities
• Other services
OnTheMap – Version 3
http://lehdmap3.did.census.gov/themap3/
OnTheMap – Version 3
Example (1 of 4)
PSU Area Labor Shed Analysis
Total Primary Jobs
2006
Total Primary Jobs
Count
3,716
Share
100.0%
Job counts in Cities/Towns Where Workers Live
2006
Count
Share
Portland, Oregon
1,825
49.1%
Beaverton, Oregon
241
6.5%
Gresham, Oregon
115
3.1%
Lake Oswego, Oregon
106
2.9%
Vancouver, Washington
102
2.7%
Hillsboro, Oregon
93
2.5%
Tigard, Oregon
61
1.6%
Aloha, Oregon
50
1.3%
Salem, Oregon
42
1.1%
West Linn, Oregon
38
1.0%
All Other Locations
1,043
28.1%
Job counts in Counties Where Workers Live
2006
Count
Share
Multnomah Co., Oregon
2,010
54.1%
Washington Co., Oregon
813
21.9%
Clackamas Co., Oregon
406
10.9%
Clark Co., Washington
224
6.0%
Marion Co., Oregon
61
1.6%
Lane Co., Oregon
32
0.9%
Columbia Co., Oregon
24
0.6%
Yamhill Co., Oregon
19
0.5%
Polk Co., Oregon
18
0.5%
Linn Co., Oregon
17
0.5%
All Other Locations
92
2.5%
Job counts in States Where Workers Live
2006
Count
Share
Oregon
3,474
93.5%
Washington
238
6.4%
California
2
0.1%
Iowa
1
0.0%
Idaho
1
0.0%
All Other Locations
0
0.0%
OnTheMap – Version 3
OnTheMap – Version 3
Example (2 of 4)
PSU Area Work Area Profile Analysis
Jobs by Industry Type (2-digit NAICS)
Total Primary Jobs
Total Primary Jobs
2006
Count
Share
3,716
100.0%
Jobs by Worker Age
Age 30 or younger
Age 31 to 54
Age 55 or older
2006
Count
Share
589
15.9%
2,225
59.9%
902
24.3%
Jobs by Earnings Paid
$1,200 per month or less
$1,201 to $3,400 per month
More than $3,400 per month
2006
Count
Share
600
16.1%
1,517
40.8%
1,599
43.0%
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting
Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
Management of Companies and Enterprises
Administration & Support, Waste Management
Educational Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation and Food Services
Other Services (excluding Public Administration)
Public Administration
2006
Count
Share
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
11
0.3%
3
0.1%
69
1.9%
0
0.0%
7
0.2%
8
0.2%
6
0.2%
9
0.2%
0
0.0%
282
7.6%
3,006
80.9%
6
0.2%
0
0.0%
168
4.5%
19
0.5%
122
3.3%
OnTheMap – Version 3
Example (3 of 4)
PSU Area Commute Shed Analysis
Total Primary Jobs
2006
Total Primary Jobs
Count
411
Share
100.0%
Job counts in Cities/Towns Where Workers are Employed
2006
Count
Share
Portland, Oregon
256
62.3%
Hillsboro, Oregon
25
6.1%
Beaverton, Oregon
21
5.1%
Gresham, Oregon
14
3.4%
Tigard, Oregon
13
3.2%
Tualatin, Oregon
8
1.9%
Salem, Oregon
7
1.7%
Oregon City, Oregon
6
1.5%
Lake Oswego, Oregon
6
1.5%
Eugene, Oregon
4
1.0%
All Other Locations
51
12.4%
Job counts in Counties Where Workers are Employed
2006
Count
Share
Multnomah Co., Oregon
271
65.9%
Washington Co., Oregon
82
20.0%
Clackamas Co., Oregon
26
6.3%
Marion Co., Oregon
8
1.9%
Lane Co., Oregon
4
1.0%
King Co., Washington
4
1.0%
Columbia Co., Oregon
3
0.7%
Yamhill Co., Oregon
2
0.5%
Deschutes Co., Oregon
2
0.5%
Whatcom Co., Washington
1
0.2%
All Other Locations
8
1.9%
Job counts in States Where Workers are Employed
2006
Count
Share
Oregon
403
98.1%
Washington
7
1.7%
California
1
0.2%
All Other Locations
0
0.0%
OnTheMap – Version 3
OnTheMap – Version 3
Example (4 of 4)
PSU Area Home Area Profile Analysis
Jobs by Industry Type (2-digit NAICS)
Total Primary Jobs
Total Primary Jobs
Jobs by Worker Age
Age 30 or younger
Age 31 to 54
Age 55 or older
Jobs by Earnings Paid
$1,200 per month or less
$1,201 to $3,400 per month
More than $3,400 per month
2006
Count
Share Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting
411
100.0% Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction
Utilities
Construction
2006
Manufacturing
Count
Share Wholesale Trade
207
50.4% Retail Trade
166
40.4% Transportation and Warehousing
38
9.2% Information
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
2006
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
Count
Share Management of Companies and Enterprises
142
34.5% Administration & Support, Waste Management
158
38.4% Educational Services
111
27.0% Health Care and Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation and Food Services
Other Services (excluding Public Administration)
Public Administration
2006
Count
Share
4
1.0%
1
0.2%
1
0.2%
8
1.9%
24
5.8%
12
2.9%
44
10.7%
6
1.5%
19
4.6%
33
8.0%
9
2.2%
23
5.6%
11
2.7%
35
8.5%
37
9.0%
35
8.5%
9
2.2%
56
13.6%
13
3.2%
31
7.5%
Other Uses of OnTheMap
• Natural disasters – tornados, floods, etc.
• Employment impact
• Estimate unemployment insurance payouts
• Commute patterns
• Economic development
• Housing studies
• Affordable housing
Industry Focus
• Quick way to look at QWI indicators by industry
• Ranks industries by any of the 8 QWI Indicators
• Uses a four quarter average
Industry Focus
Example
Oregon Industries With Largest Percent of Employees
65 and Older
Private Households
Crop Production
Animal Production
Real Estate
Transit and Ground Passenger Transportation
Support Activities for Agriculture and Forestry
Religious and Membership Organizations
Scenic and Sightseeing Transportation
Accommodation
Performing Arts, Sports, and Related Industries
All Oregon Industries
0%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Local Employment Dynamics
2%
4%
6%
8%
Percent of Employment
10%
12%
Older Worker Profiles
• LEHD produces this series of reports for 30 states
• The Geographic Distribution and Characteristics of
Older Workers: 2004
• The data is “old” – 2004 when we now have 2007
• “Easily” replicable
Portion of County Workforce Age 55 and Older
2007 Census LEHD data
Older
Worker Profiles
15.0% to 18.0%
18.1% to 21.1%
21.2% to 24.2%
33.5%
Average Monthly Earnings
Age 55 and Older
Industry
Average Earnings
Financial Activities
$ 5,255
Professional and Business Services
4,506
Information
4,372
Construction
4,250
Manufacturing
4,191
Natural Resources and Mining
3,823
Government
3,712
Educational and Health Services
3,435
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
3,328
Other Services
2,136
Leisure and Hospitality
1,906
Average Monthly Earnings of Workers
55 and Older, by Industry
• Metropolitan Areas
• Highest-paying: Financial Activities ($4,821)
• Lowest-paying: Leisure and Hospitality ($1,723)
• Non-Metropolitan Areas
• Highest-paying: Resources and Mining ($4,293)
• Lowest-paying: Leisure and Hospitality ($1,492)
Increase in Number of Workers Age 55 and Older
2002-2007,
Census LEHD data
MAP: Increase
in number
of older workers,
2002-2007
14.5% to 26.9%
27.0% to 39.9%
40.0% to 52.9%
53.0% to 66.2%
What Can LED Tell Us About the Recession?
• Not much – yet
• Are Baby Boomers retiring?
• Previous recession:
• Stable separations went down while stable
hires went up
• Largest drop off was in workers 55-64
• Youth employment came back for girls after
recession, but not for boys
Thank you for your time.
Questions or comments?
[email protected]
(541) 947-1267