Transcript 1 - Unido

Resource Efficiency for Green Growth:
Is much of the Asia in an advantageous
position to Low Carbon World?
International Conference on Green Industry in Asia
10 September 2009, Manila
Shuzo Nishioka
Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES)
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)
Japan
To stabilize climate,
demand side energy saving, especially in
developing countries, plays a big role globally
%
OECD
Share
35
Energy
saving -47
nOECD
65
Supply side
-59
Demand side
2005
2050
Japan Low Carbon Society 2050 Scenario
A research result to endorse Japanese policy of 60-80% reduction in
2050 by NIES, Kyoto Univ., TIT, Tokyo Univ. ＋α (2004-2009)
Key conclusion:
1.Japan has the technological
potential to reduce its CO2
emission by 70% compared to
the 1990 level, while satisfying
the expected demand for energy
services in 2050.
2. Energy saving and LC primary
energy contribute almost equally.
3. Innovation necessary not only
in technology but in social
infrastructure and institutions as
well
Prime Minister Fukuda in Congress
(Jan. 2008)“..maximize Japanese
environmental power, lead world
transition towards Low Carbon
Society…”
(May 18) Japanese long-term target
60-80% reduction until 2050,
How to reach Low Carbon Society:
Japanese case and Asian opportunity
70％ CO2 reduction
can be attained by
0
100
200
400
(Mtoe)
2000
Industry
Business
Reduced energy demand
40-45％ reduction
Industry
Equal effort by
demand &
supply side
Passenger Freight
transport transport
Household
Eco-efficient product
and consumers’
2050
smart choices can
Scenario A
reduce energy
consumption by as
2050
much as
Scenario B
40-45%
Household
2000
Low carbon shift in
primary energy
sources via
introduction of
renewable energies
300
100
Coal
Passenger
transport
Business
200
300
Oil
400
Freight
transport
500
600
(Mtoe)
Gas
Hydro
2050
Scenario A
2050
Scenario B
Coal
Oil
Use of centralized energy
Nuclear
Biomass
Gas
Biomass
Solar/
Wind
Use
of distributed energy
一次エネルギー供給
Nuclear
Hydro
Solar/Wind
Energy Efficiency is the key, but not enough
Step 1
Social
change
CO2
GDP
Emission＝ Pop× Pop ×
CO2
0.3
Popは
0.8
GDP/Cap
2.7
Service Demand
Same as 2000
2050 Japan LCS Scenario
Step 2
Service
demand
Step 3：
Energy
demand
Step 4：
CO2
emission
Service
Demand
Energy
Energy
CO2
GDP
×
Service Industry
Shift 0.45
Service
Demand
Energy
efficiency
0.6
【Demand side】
Saving energy devices,
hi-insulated housing,
renewable energy,
Compact city 70%
40％ reduction
×
Energy
Low
Carbonize
0.5
【Supply side】
Nuclear,
Renewables,CCS
with Coal
30％ reduction
Significant CO2reduction Potential in demand side
Secondary energy demand (million tonC)）
0
2000
2050A
2%/yGrowth
2050B
1%/yGrowth
50
100
Industry
150
200
Res. Office
250
300
350
Passenger
others
Cargo
Toshiba aims Factor 10
The ideal situation in 2050
People lead rich lifestyles in harmony with the Earth
Common goal to reduce CO2 emissions by half to prevent global warming
Reducing the environmental impact generated by human beings by half
CO2 : 1/2
An increasingly growing population
Reducing the environmental impact generated by each person by 1.5
times
Population : X 1.5
Economic development accelerated, especially in developing countries
Creating 3.4 times more value
GDP/Population : X 3.4
Environmental
Vision
2050
Factor 10 by 2050
Simplified
eco-efficiency
GDP/CO2
GDP/Population
X Population X 1/CO2
= 3.4 X 1.5 X 2
Takeda (Toshiba): 2009
Eco-efficiency and Factor
Value of a product
Eco-efficiency =
Environmental Impact
of a product
Factor = Degree of Improvement of
Eco-efficiency
*The higher the value,
the greater the ecoefficiency is.
*The value of the factor
indicates to what extent
the eco-efficiency of the
product has increased.
Toshiba’s Approach:
“Factor T” integrating three environmental perspectives
- To optimize the trade-off between Environment and Lifestyle -
1. Integration of environmental impact
by the LIME Method
2. Integration of value of a product with
multiple functions by the QFD method
3. Integration of product and business
process eco-efficiency
What is Product Value?
QFD matrix
ex. Vacuum Cleaner
9
1
9
3
4.5
Weights
*QFD (Quality Function Deployment):
A systematic process for integrating
product functions based on the
degree of importance customers
attach to them when selecting a
product.
9
3
1
3
3
1.6
4.8
1
3
1
1
8.0
9
9
13.0
3
9.8
9
1.9
1
1
3
9
1.6
1
3
9.6
9
3
2.4
3
9
0.8
9
2.4
9
0.3
1
3
1
9
2.4
9
3
3
3
1
2.7
9
3
1
Lengh of Nozzle [mm]
9
Number of Atachments [pcs]
1
Trash Left beside Wall [mm]
9
Rotary Brush [rpm]
Running Weight [N]
Noise [dB]
3
Compress Ratio of Trash [g/L]
9
1
3
3
1
Trap Efficiency [%]
Wheel Size [mm]
Casset Trash [ - ]
Brush Volume [m3]
Brush Weight [kg]
1
Dust Pick-up Ratio [%]
1
Body Volume [m3]
Total Weight [kg]
Body Weight [g]
1
Number of Filter [pcs]
1
9
3
2.4
Weight of Engineering Metrics
Vacuum Work Ratio [W]
5.3
8.7
5.7
2.3
3.4
7.0
2.7
7.8
4.0
3.1
1.5
2.1
3.2
Careless exhaust
Vacuum everything
Silent
Easy to dispose trash
Clean up narrow area
Clean up flooring
Subordinate body
Clean up corners
Easy to clean
Easy to move brush
Many attachments
Compact storage
16.8
Customer
Requirements
Correlation;
9: large
3: middle
1: small
Weight of Cuntomer
Requirement
Voice of
Customer
• Voice of customer is translated
into engineering metrics.
Engineering Metrics
• Customers’ evaluation of a
product is reflected in an
indicator to enhance customer
satisfaction.
• We adopted QFD* method to
reflect customers’ evaluation
in determination of product
value.
Process of Integrating Environmental Impact
Easy-LCA＊
Procurement
Recycling
Distribution
Manufacturing
Consumption
Waste
treatment
* A simplified LCA tool developed by Toshiba,
incorporating a database of 30 inventory items
based on the input/output table of Japan
Environmental Load
HFC, SOX, T-N, T-P, CO2, NOX, etc
Ozone
Depletion
Cancer
Plant
Production
Social Property
LIME**
Acidification
Global
Warming
Eutrophication
Aquatic Plant
Decrease
Primary Production
Malaria
Dengue Fever
Biodiversity
Integration
Air
Polution
・・・
Respiratory
Diseases
・・・
Human Health
**Life-cycle Impact assessment Method
based on Endpoint modeling : developed
by AIST as part of a NEDO project.
Factor Description and Applications
•“Factor T” is already
applied to 80% of all
Toshiba products.
•Factors are calculated
on the basis of
FY2000 models.
•Graph shows factors
of products using two
axes:
Factor =
Value
Factor
×
Environmental Impact
Reduction Factor
“Value Factor”
“Environmental
Impact Reduction
Factor”
•Lines indicate
enhancement of the
value or reduction of
the environmental
impact.
Asian Opportunity 1:
Low carbon technologies already available
iｆ technologies commonly shared (2020)
3500
50 < X <= 100 US$/t-CO2
Huge reduction
potential when
Best Available
Technology applied
3000
under 100 US$/t-CO2
GHG Reduction potential (Mt-CO2 eq)
GHG Reduction Potential
2500
2000
1500
20 < X <= 50 US$/t-CO2
0 < X <= 20 US$/t-CO2
X <= 0 US$/t-CO2
Negative cost！
1000
500

XRW
XAF
XLM
BRA
ARG
RUS
XE10
XE15
USA
CAN
NZL
AUS
XME
XSA
XSE
THA
KOR
IDN
IND
CHN
JPN
0
China, US, India, Western Europe and Russia are major 5 regions where there are
large reduction potentials, and it accounts for 63 % of total reduction potentials in
the world. Top 10 regions account for about 80 % of total reduction potentials.
Infrastructure is important
Example: Passenger transport sector can achieve
80% reduction in energy demand via suitable
land use & improved energy efficiency
Change in passenger transport volume
Energy Demand (Mtoe)
Decline in
transport
volume
Energy efficiency
improvement
Change in passenger transport methods
Change in passenger transport due to
increased urban density ('compact cities')
Land use・
Reduction in
transport volume
Improved energy efficiency
Grid electricity
Hydrogen
Solar energy generation
Biomass
Natural gas
Petroleum oil
2000(Actual figure)
2050(scenario A)
2050(scenario B)
Energy demand in 2000
Change in passenger transport volume: reduction in total movements due to population decline
Change in passenger transport methods: modal shift using public transport system (LRT etc.)
Change in passenger transport due to increased urban density ('compact cities'): reduced travel distance due to proximity
of destination
Improved energy efficiency: improvements in automobiles & other passenger transport devices (hybrids, lightweight
designs etc.)
Beijing
北京1975 北京1984
北京1991 北京1997
東京1927 東京1967
Ｔｏｋｙｏ ＆ Ｏｓａｋａ
東京2001
Seoul
ソウル1920 ソウル1960 ソウル2006
大阪1927
台北1920 台北2003
大阪1967
大阪2001
Ｍａｎｉｌａ
マニラ2060 マニラ2000
Bangkok
バンコク1950
バンコク2000
Rapidly Expanding Asian Cities
From Kaneko: 2009 深圳1985
深圳1997
深圳2005
100%
Modal share of
motorized
private mode
＊San Francisco
Ｎｏｒｔｈ Ａｍｅｒｉｃａｎ Ｐａｔｔｅｒｎ
＊Rome
European Pattern
Most efficient pattern
＊Beijing
＊Manila
＊Hong Kong
＊Munich
＊Tokyo
d
a
a
0%
50,000
GDP/Capita (USD)
Asian Opportunity 2:
Designing efficient Infrastructure
From IEA: 2008
ガソリン->Gasoline ICEV
100
0
ディーゼル車
合成ディーゼル->Diesel ICEHEV
原油
ガソリンＨＶ
ガソリン車
ﾊ ﾞｲｵ ﾏｽ
天然ガス
副生水素
燃料電池車（水素）
石油火力->圧縮水素->FCEV
石炭火力->圧縮水素->FCEV
燃料電池車（水素）
平均電源構成->圧縮水素->FCEV
平均電源構成->圧縮水素->FCHEV
バイオマス発電->圧縮水素->FCHEV
※ＨＶ：ハイブリッド車の省略形　※電力：日本の平均電源構成
※燃料電池車：
回生エネルギーを二次電池で回収　※水素：圧縮水素を仮定
原油
天然ガス
石炭
バイオマス
電力
石炭火力->圧縮水素->FCHEV
LNG火力->圧縮水素->FCEV
LNG火力->圧縮水素->FCHEV
電力
圧縮水素->FCEV
Hy. Aug
液体水素->FCHEV
液体水素->FCEV
最小
電気自動車
圧縮水素->FCHEV
バイオマス発電->圧縮水素->FCEV
50
石油火力->圧縮水素->FCHEV
バイオマス発電->BEV
平均電源構成->BEV
石炭火力->BEV
LNG火力->BEV
石油火力->BEV
燃料電池車（水素）
液体水素->FCEV
液体水素->FCHEV
圧縮水素->FCEV
圧縮水素->FCHEV
メタノール->FP. MeOH FCEV
max
メタノール->FP. MeOH FCHEV
100
合成ディーゼル->Diesel ICEV
400
合成ディーゼル->Diesel ICEHEV
250
燃料電池車(ﾒﾀﾉｰ ﾙ )
圧縮水素->FCEV
圧縮水素->FCHEV
メタノール->FP. MeOH FCEV
メタノール->FP. MeOH FCHEV
合成ディーゼル->Diesel ICEHEV
合成ディーゼル->Diesel ICEV
燃料電池車（水素）
液体水素->FCEV
液体水素->FCHEV
圧縮水素->FCEV
メタノール->FP. MeOH FCEV
圧縮水素->FCHEV
メタノール->FP. MeOH FCHEV
600
合成ディーゼル->Diesel ICEV
液体水素->FCEV
液体水素->FCHEV
ディーゼルＨＶ
0
圧縮水素->FCEV
圧縮水素->FCHEV
500
ガソリン->FP. Gas. FCEV
200
ガソリン->Gasoline ICEHEV
ガソリン->FP. Gas. FCHEV
200
軽油->Diesel ICEHEV
300
軽油->Diesel ICEV
to Wheel CO2排出原単位[g-CO2/km]
W ellto W heelC O Well
2排出原単位[g-C
O 2/km ]
Technology: Projected Car CO2 Emission/km
min
最大
Gasoline
Diesel
150
FC
EV
副生水素
Asian Opportunity 3:
Technological
leap-fogging starts
now
Electric Car:
Experiences in
Mobile Phone
(ELIICA) 4 PASSENGER SEDAN
370km/h MAX.SPEED
Prof. Hiroshi SHIMIZU, Keio Univ.
From Toyota to
Pansonic?
No engine but only
motors in every wheel
PLATFORM by SIM-Drive
Let’s design
customized
Asian Eco-car
Body Panels
Body Frame
Chassis
Lighter,
wider, and
flexible design,
when move
engine away
IN WHEEL MOTOR
MOTOR DRIVE SYSTEMS ARE
INSERTED IN EACH 8 WHEELS
TANDEM WHEEL
SUSPENSION
・HIGHER EFFICIENCY
・LIGHTER WEIGHT
・WIDER USEFUL
SPACE IN CABIN
TWO WHEELS ARE
CONNECTED BY AN OIL PIPE
↑
・COMFORT
・FASTER CORNERING
COMPONENT BUILT IN
SPEED
・WIDER USEFUL SPACE IN
FRAME
↑
A CABIN
MAJOR COMPONENTS ARE IN 16cm
HEIGHT FRAME UNDER THE FLOOR
･LIGHTER WEIGHT
･LOWER CENTER OF GRAVITY
･WIDER USEFUL SPACE IN A CABIN
NEW SYSTEM TECHNOLOGY
“PLATFORM by SIM-Drive”
Asian Opportunity 4: Free from past high-energydepending technology track
Long-term Trends in Energy Intensity
(energy/GDP)
＊ Japan’s leap-frog
China？
India？
Possibility of Asian
countries’ catch-up
– How can we facilitate technology leap flogging to promote low carbon
development?
– What would be mechanisms (international and national, market and non
market) that could facilitate those leap-floggings to low carbon
technologies?
22
Considerations (1)
Acceleration of Technology Essential to
Realize a Low Carbon Society
Carbon intensity（excluding CCS）
Energy intensity
Carbon intensity （CCS equivalent）
Past
Scenario A
Scenario B
1.25
0.65
2.36
1.70
UK
France
Germany
0.0
0.78 0.53
1.41
2.79
0.85 0.61
1.72
1.62
2.38
1.0
0.68
1.26
2.0
3.0
0.45
4.0
Rate of improvement in carbon & energy intensity (%/year)
5.0
International decoupling competition started
Energy/GDP [toe/thousand$]
Energy
0.5
Intensity
U.S.
U.K.
France
Korea
EU-15
Germany
Japan
0.4
0.3
Korea
U.S.
0.2
U.K.
0.1
Japan
?
0.0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Year
Japan almost
caught up by
European countries
IEA Energy
statistics
New Energy competition : distributed energy
Germany
Solar Panel Capacity Growth
Spain
Japan
米国
USA
Asia: Tightening material linkage: cooperation
PE waste (391510)
PS waste (391520)
PVC waste (391530)
Other plastic waste (391590)
500
100
10
(in thousand t)
Europe
China
Japan
North
America
Hong
Kong
Other Asian
Countries
Oceania
South
America
Material flows of plastic waste among Japan, China and Hong Kong in 2002
From NIES
Embedded Water to Japan (Virtual water)
accompanied with food, meat, industrial product,,
27
tightening of mutual dependency in natural resource
usage
出典：T. Oki, M. Sato, A. Kawamura, M. Miyake, S. Kanae, and K. Musiake, Virtual water trade to Japan and in the world, Virtual
Water Trade, Edited by A.Y. Hoekstra, Proceedings of the International Expert Meeting on Virtual Water Trade, Delft, The
Netherlands, 12-13 December 2002, Value of Water Research Report Series No.12, 221-235, February 2003.
2002年に穀物、肉、工業製品として日本に輸入されたバーチャルウォーター
世界の水資源への影響が、
日本にも及ぶかもしれない。
出典：T. Oki, M. Sato, A. Kawamura,
M. Miyake, S. Kanae, and K.
Musiake, Virtual water trade to
Japan and in the world, Virtual
Water Trade, Edited by A.Y.
Hoekstra, Proceedings of the
International Expert Meeting on
Virtual Water Trade, Delft, The
Netherlands, 12-13 December
2002, Value of Water Research
Report Series No.12, 221-235,
February 2003.
Toward Resource Efficient-Economies in Asia and the Pacific
ADB-IGES Joint
Publication
in 2008
March 2009
Taku OHMURA
3R Project
Team
Leader
Asian
Development
Bank
The Report:
•
Propositions:
1. Current inefficient development patterns do not allow the
region to continue support high demand resource without
negative impacts:
– higher price, severe degradation, growing internal
competition
2. Government around the region have the ability to follow an
alternative path not only to avoid such impacts but also to
take advantage of opportunities to invest in infrastructure
and institutes wisely:
– Strengthen competitiveness, generate jobs, provide
clean and productive environment
Resource Inefficiency in Asia
• Resource efficiency has huge room to improve in
developing countries
– Energy consumption per GDP of PRC is 3 times higher
than US, 10 times than Japan)
– In many mega-cities, non-revenue water of water supply
is around 40%
– In developing countries, 75% of water intended to for
irrigation is lost to evaporation, leakage, seepage of bad
management
• Fresh water is a renewable resources, but world demand for
water has tripled over last half century, it increasingly
emerging scares commodity due to population pressure,
intensive irrigation, erratic weather pattern, and pollution
caused by human activities.
Needs for Resource Efficiency Improvement in Asia (1)
• Asian economies is continuing its growth, even its growth rate is
slowing down. Economic expansion is associated with rapid
urbanization (2.21 Billon in 2040  1.56 Billion current)
• Necessary to improve services to the people, to reduce poverty (54%
of population living less than $2/day poverty line or 27% for
<$1.25/day)
– more than 600 million people lack access to safe drinking water
and nearly 2 billion people have inadequate, or no, sanitation
facilities.
• Resulting in rapidly increasing demand of resources (material, energy
and water), and waste generation (solid waste, pollutants, GHG)
– Asian energy consumption will grow by 112% from 2005 to 2030
– GO2 emission from Asia will be doubled and
represent 36% of world emission in 42% in 2030
in comparison to 29% in 2005
– Solid waste generation will be doubled in 2050
Needs for Resource Efficiency Improvement in Asia (2)
-- Not only for environmental objectives, but also economic
competitiveness and sustainable economic growth -• Tackling Local Environmental Problems
• Mitigating Climate Change
• Ensuring Energy Security (+water/food security)
• Preserving Natural Capital
• Improving Economic Competitiveness
• Minimizing Disposal Costs
• Developing New Business Opportunities
• Pursuing Social Benefits
• Avoiding Resource Conflicts
Government role: Develop National Policy Framework
• Overarching Policies, such as “Circular Economy”
• National Policies to Support Material, Energy and Water
Efficiency
• Targets, Monitoring, and Benchmarking
Report examines wide range of policy instruments:
Regulatory, Economic and Financial, Information-based, Voluntary
Initiatives, Substance, product or technology bans, Extended producer
Responsibility and take-back, Green purchasing, Biomass policies and
programs, Construction and demolition debris, Energy Audit, Energy
Efficiency and Emission Standards, Energy pricing and taxation,
Favorable subsidies (tax credit & favorable loan), Energy service
company, Demand side management, GHG reduction project, Improving
allocative efficiency, River basin planning, Water Pricing, Water market
Government Role : Investing in Resource-Efficient
Infrastructure
• Infrastructure investments often establish a country’s pattern of
resource use for subsequent decades. If traditional low
efficiency infrastructure is introduced, the economies and the
sustainability of resource use will suffer in the long term.
– ADB estimates: US$60 Billion/yr is needed to expand urban
services – water, sanitation, SWM, road, and mass transit.
– US$8 Billion/yr over the next decade to meet MDG targets for
sanitation and safe drinking water
– Investment in industry and energy sectors is continuing to
meet the increasing demands
• US$6 trillion needed for energy investments by 2030
Conclusion
1. Resource efficiency for reducing energy demand is the key to shift
to Low Carbon Society, front- runner to the stationary world
2. Embedding resource efficiency concept into management is
indispensable to win international competition among countries and
business as well
3. Fully integrated application of resource efficiency concept required:
innovations in products as well as in infrastructure and institutions
to activate them. Immediate action of Governments based on firm
future oriented plan is indispensable
4. Much of the Asia now situates in an advantageous position to
leapfrog to resource efficient society, avoiding locked–in with past
inefficient developing pattern, if their current rapid and massive
investment aims properly to our common future
5. Collaboration first, competition second: collaborative improvement
of resource efficiency benefits widely over the countries in Asia,
under tightening regional flow of materials and energy, within
stationary world
Can we live with such a catastrophe?
Projection of surface temperature from 1900
地球シミュレータによる２１００年までの気候変化予測ー地上温度
東大気候システム研究センター・国立環境研究所・地球環境フロンティア研究センター
CCSR/NIES/FRSGC＋Earth
Simulator
Earth System Integrated Mod
Kakushin = Innovation Program (2007-12)
気候が変化すれば生態系も変化し、炭素循環が変化する。気候と生態系の相互作用も考慮して将来
の地球環境変化を予測できるのが地球システム統合モデル（ESM)であり、これの高度化をはかる。
Stratosphere process
Chemical process
Aerozol
力学的植生モデル
Marine bio-chemical
process
Land area
C cycle
Land energy
water cycle
Ice sheet
Ocean circulation
To stabilize climate, emission = absorption, but
absorption
capacity decreases while temperature rises.
[PgC/yr]
4
Almost
1000ppm stabilize
Zero
No FB
More than
emission
6 degrees
ultimately
With FB
needed
Estimate
PgC/y
550ppm stabilize
3.2-4 degrees
No FB
*present
Estimate
With Feed Back
Slow absorption
to deep see
0
1850
2000
2100
2250
Interim research findings of "Innovative" Earth System Model
JAMSTEC(2007)
Now we are stepping into stationary society
Products: Energy
Solar Energy
Resources
: Fossil F
as source of
resources
Infrastructure
Wastes: CO2
The earth is finite
as sink of
residuals
Moriguchi ＋SN
Thank you for your attention!
Can you see and feel the blessings of the mother nature?