Transcript documento período de sesiones

Latin America and the Caribbean:
Challenges and Opportunities in a
Time of Crisis
Alicia Bárcena
Executive Secretary of ECLAC
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
Washington D.C., 11 September 2009
Dilemmas and uncertainties
after the crisis
Old and new forms of protectionism
A new international financial architecture or just
cosmetic changes?
Will there be more regulation? What will
be the combination of public policies?
Bilateralism (chinamerica) as opposed to
multilateralism (open regionalism)
Uncertainty concerning climate change
Unemployment, informality and poverty
Fragile democracies
MANAGING FIVE TRANSITIONS
From market supremacy to a new role for the
State
From traditional to new geopolitical and
economic alliances
From social exclusion to an inclusive
development
From exclusive R&D to extensive innovation
for all
From oil-based to a carbon-free sustainable
economy
SHORT HISTORY OF THE CRISIS



The known links: subprime crisisinvestment banks-financial systems-crisis
in confidence
The reconfirmed link: transfer to the real
economy. No decoupling
The proven effects: lower economic
activity, negative growth, drop in
international trade and FDI, reduction in
remittances.
FRUSTRATION IN THE REGION AFTER BOOM
YEARS (2003-2008)
Solid fiscal policies and improved levels of public debt profile
Increased exchange rate flexibility and unprecedented
international reserves (+150% between 2003 and 2008)
Surplus in the regional current account coupled with
economic growth
Ready access to external financing
Increased trade (I + X) (value: 138%; volume: 49%)
Terms of trade improved by 25% in the region
Per capita GDP grew by more than 3% per year for five
consecutive years
Unemployment diminished from 11% to 7.5% coupled with
the creation of more quality jobs
Poverty rates fell by 10 percentage points (from 44% to 34%)
Estimates for a prompt recovery are negative
for 2009 in the 4 main channels
Foreign
direct
investment
Remittances
and tourism
Commodity
prices
External
demand
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-5% - 10%
-20%
-30%
-29%
-40%
-50%
-35% - 45%
2008
2009
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official data.
-25%
Exports of LAC fell by 31% and imports fell by
29% in value in the first half of 2009
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: MERCHANDISE EXPORT AND IMPORT
GROWTH IN THE FIRST HALF OF 2008 AND 2009
(Growth rates relative to the year-earlier period)
EXPORTS
-36.7
Caribbean countries
13.1
-30.0
Mexico and Central America
Chile
-38.8
Andean Community
-42.0
8.1
42.0
-15.8
44.9
27.5
-27.3
Latin America and the Caribbean
-30.9
23.9
-29.1
-40
-20
January - June 2009
0
20
40
29.7
-31.8
29.4
-60
15.9
-35.1
-31.2
-80
24.3
-31.7
South America
In volume
exports fell by
15.3%
14.6
-29.2
16.7
-21.7
MERCOSUR
24.4
-32.1
17.1
-11.2
Central America Common Market
-24.3
18.1
-31.6
Mexico
IMPORTS
60
80
January - June 2008
-80
-60
-40
50.3
42.2
28.6
-20
January - June 2009
All export destinations were affected but
those to China have dropped the least
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official data.
0
20
40
60
80
January - June 2008
In volume
imports fell by
25.3%
Inflows of FDI are expected to fall, after
peaking historically in 2008
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
(Millions of dollars)
13%
140 000
120 000
51%
100 000
80 000
60 000
40 000
20 000
0
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
South
Mexico, Central
andofthe
Caribbean
Source: Economic Commission for
Latin America
America and the Caribbean
(ECLAC),America
on the basis
official
figures.
Total
Remittances have fallen significantly
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: MIGRANTS’ QUARTERLY REMITTANCES
(Annual growth rates with respect to the same period of the previous year)
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Guatemala
El Salvador
Mexico
Nicaragua
Dominican Rep.
Ecuador
Colombia
Jamaica
-30%
1Q 2007
2Q 2007
3Q 2007
4Q 2007
1Q 2008
2Q 2008
3Q 2008
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.
4Q 2008
1Q 2009
2Q 2009
LONG HISTORY OF THE CRISIS





Development model based on deregulation
Model based on the segmentation and increased
predominance of the financial sector over the
productive
Production patterns that are jeopardizing the
future habitability of the planet
Globalization patterns with high concentrations of
wealth
Paradigms such as the “invisible hand” and
“trickle down theory” are no longer credible
Simultaneous economic contraction in so many countries since the
Great Depression (nearly 80% of the world’s economies and GDP)
NUMBER OF COUNTRIES IN RECESSION IN THE SAME YEAR a
(Percentages of total number of countries)
100
100
Great Depression
90
80
Others 19%
Countries
with GDP
contraction
81%
World War I
70
Current
economic
crisis
90
80
70
60
60
World War II
First oil crisis
50
50
Second oil crisis
40
40
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
1901
1905
1909
1913
1917
1921
1925
1929
1933
1937
1941
1945
1949
1953
1957
1961
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
2009
30
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of data from Maddison and IMF estimates for
the most recent periods (2009).
a Covers 29 economies. Growth rates are expressed in constant internationally comparable currency .
Will the future be different:
New Normality with lower potential GDP in developed
countries
Pre-crisis
Post-crisis
PIB potencial
170
160
150
140
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Fuente: Sobre la base de la OCDE (2009) y el FMI (2009).
2011
Años
2012
2013
2014
…much less aggregate demand from US
mundo pre-crisis
mundo post-crisis
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
1990-2000
Consumo Privado + Inversión
Fuente: EIU (2009)
2001-2007
Gasto Público
2008-2015
Sector Externo
…less trade (%)
Crisis
Mundo pre-crisis
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
2004
-5.0
-10.0
-15.0
-20.0
Fuente: OCDE (2009)
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Past experience shows….
Comparison between GDP-percapita with poverty rates
(Dlls and percentages)
5000
48.3
50
4800
43.5
43.3
4400
4597
44.3
42.0
42.5
44
40.5
4200
46
42
4000
39.8
40
36.3
38
Recuperación en el nivel de pobreza: 25 años
3800
3886
Recuperación del P IB: 14 años
3600
3650
3620
3400
3746
36
34.1
33.2
3432
3200
34
32
3321
PIB per cápita
Pobreza
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
30
1978
3000
Incidencia de la pobreza
4600
PIB per cápita
48
45.7
MAJOR GAPS
 INEQUALITY AND POVERTY RATES
 INCOME DISTRIBUTION AND SOCIAL
PROTECTION
 EDUCATION
 PRODUCTIVITY
 INVESTMENT
THE MOST UNEQUAL REGION OF THE WORLD
Gini Coefficient in comparison with other regions
Frustration in terms of labor market and poverty rates:
Regional unemployment rate could exceed 9% in 2009
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: POVERTY, EXTREME POVERTY AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
(Percentages)
a
60
12
48,3
50
43,8
40,5
43,5
40
8
36,3
30
22.5
20
10
44,0
18.6
19.0
18.5
34,1
33,2
6
19.4
4
13.3
12.6
12.9
10
2
0
0
1980
1990
Very poor
1997
1999
Poor
2002
2006
2007
2008
2009
Unemployment rate (right hand side)
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of special tabulations of household surveys conducted
in the respective countries.
a Figures for poverty and extreme poverty rates are based on estimates for 19 countries of the region, including Haiti. The figures appearing above
the bars are percentages of the population. Figures for 2008 and 2009 are forecasts.
Vicious circle in the life cycle
• Education,
• Deficits in education translate
in unemployment, informality
and low proctivity
• Salary gaps, lack of social
protection in increasing ageing
population
EXPORT-LED MODEL NEED TO CHANGE
Comparison between productivity and exports
Coeficiente de exportacion y productividad en América Latina
(Números índice, 1990=100)
250
200
150
100
50
0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
Productividad
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Coeficiente de exportación
Fuente: División de Desarrollo Productivo y Empresarial, CEPAL
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
PRODUCTIVITY GAP ADDS TO THE ENERGY
CONSUMPTION GAP
Índices de brecha energética y productividad relativa, 1996-2006
250
200
150
100
50
0
1996
2001
2002
2003
2004
Brecha Enérgica AL/EEUU
Pr relativa
Linear (Brecha Enérgica AL/EEUU)
Linear (Pr relativa)
Fuente: División de Desarrollo Productivo y Empresarial, CEPAL
2005
2006
ENERGY INTENSITY
(BEP/1OOO US$ a precios de 2000)
Indice 1980=100
110
110
100
100
OECD Total
América Latina y Caribe
Fuente: Elaboración propia con base en SIEE de OLADE, y base de datos de la AIE
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2000
2001
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1993
1994
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
60
1986
1987
60
1985
70
1984
70
1983
80
1982
80
1981
90
1980
90
Technological frontier: patents in 2006
Biotecnología
Nanotecnología
EEUU
41,5 %
EEUU
40,3 %
Japón
11,9 %
Japón
19,0 %
UE27
27,4 %
UE27
26,7 %
Alemania
7 %
Korea
2,7 %
Reino Unido
4,5 %
Francia
3,6 %
Canadá
2,0 %
España
1,3 %
Australia
1,1 %
Canadá
3,2 %
China
1,0 %
Korea
3 %
India
China
1,9 %
0,2 %
India
0,9 %
América Latina
0,3 %
Brasil
0,3 %
Fuente: OECD, 2008
Fuente: Cepal (2008), sobre datos de OCDE
Patent Database, 2008
INVESTMENT GAP
Inversión como % del PIB en dólares del 2000
25.0
24.0
23.0
22.0
21.0
20.0
19.0
18.0
17.0
16.0
15.0
14.0
13.0
12.0
11.0
10.0
23,0%
18,9%
18,7%
19,4%
18,2%
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
1968
1966
1964
1962
1960
1958
1956
1954
1952
1950
17,6%
But the crisis also put in evidence important
gaps
Weakness of domestic productive structures:
 Strong presence of industries extracting natural
resources without value added
 Little or no innovation
Wider productivity gap in the face of the
emergence of new technological demands
The international competitiveness of the countries
of the region remains limited to either “maquila” or
sectors intensive in natural resources
EXCLUSION IN EDUCATION
18 COUNTRIES: EDUCATION LEVELS BY (1990-2005)
Quintil I
Quintil V
120
80
60
97.5
84.1
92.9
100
61
53.9
40
20
79.6
7.9
14.8
0.2
20.5
22.6
0.7
0
Conclusión Conclusión Conclusión Conclusión Conclusión Conclusión
primaria
secundaria
terciaria
primaria
secundaria
terciaria
1990
2005
Fuente: CEPAL (2007). Panorama Social de América Latina 2007.
/a. El porcentaje de conclusión de la primaria se estimó sobre la población de 15 a 19 años, en la secundaria se
consideró como universo la población de 20 a 24 años y en la terciaria a la población de 25 a 29 años.
26
The capacity to respond to the crisis is
different among countries
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: SCOPE OF THE MEASURES ADOPTED TO 31-05-09 IN
ORDER TO DEAL WITH THE CRISIS
(Number of countries that have adopted the measure)
Monetary and financial policy
a Lower or and/or more flexible reserve requirements
b Money supply
19
18
Fiscal policy
c Lower taxes/higher subsidies
d Increase and/or anticipation of infrastructure spending
17
16
15
Exchange-rate and foreign-trade policy
e Higher tariffs or import restrictions
f Lower tariffs
g Export financing
h Credit management with IFIs
14
13
12
11
10
Specifically targeted policies
i Housing programmes
j Support to SMEs
k Sectorial policies
9
8
7
6
5
Labour and social policies
l Employment incentives
m Social programmes
4
3
2
1
0
a
b
c
d
e
f
g
h
i
j
k
l
m
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) on the basis of official information.
But the space to finance counter-cyclical policies is
shrinking
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: CURRENT ACOUNT AND FISCAL BALANCE, 2000-2009 a
(Percentage of GDP)
2.0
1.5
Current account balance
2006
2005
2004
1.0
Twin
surpluses
2003
0.5
2007
0.0
-0.5
2002
2008
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
-2.5
2001
2009
a
Twin deficits
-3.0
-3.5
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
Fiscal balance
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.
a The 2009 figures are forecasts.
0.5
1.0
A new role for the State
Define a long term vision: a pre-analytical
framework
A new fiscal policy with a new social covenant
Chose the right mix of public policies
Search a more proactive relation with the market
Protect the most vulnerable sectors
Ensure inclusive development through spreading
of technology and innovation
Fostering a green economy
The crisis highlights the need for a
new fiscal covenant
Main objective: to foster equality
From assistance-based to
universality based on rights
Tax reform based on efficiency
and progressiveness
Tax revenues are low and constrains public
expenditure
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: FISCAL REVENUE AND SOCIAL SPENDING
(Percentage of GDP)
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Other public revenue
Tax revenue
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures.
Guatemala
El Salvador
Dominican Rep.
Paraguay
Mexico
Honduras
Peru *
Ecuador
Panama
Costa Rica *
Uruguay
Nicaragua
Chile
Venezuela (Bol.Rep.of)
Colombia *
Argentina *
Bolivia (Pl.St.of)
Brazil *
Public social spending
Tax policies are regressive in the majority of
Latin American countries
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: GINI COEFFICIENT BEFORE AND AFTER TAXES
(Coefficients)
Argentina (1997)
Mexico (1989)
Chile (1996)
EU15 (2001)
Spain (2001)
Germany (2001)
Gpost
Gpre
Sw eden (2001)
0.300
0.350
0.400
0.450
0.500
0.550
0.600
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of Gómez Sabaini, “Repensar lo social en tiempos de crisis”,
May 2009.
POLITICS IS BACK
Provision of public goods
Universal social protection
Innovation and knowledge
Productive convergence
Energy efficiency and security
Cut back carbon emissions
Regional and subregional integration
beyond trade