Transcript Belize Assessment of Hurricane Dean PD

ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean
United Nations Development Programme
Belize: Macro Socio-Economic
Assessment Report
of the Impact of Hurricane Dean
August 2007
ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean
The ECLAC Methodology: The post-disaster cycle
ECLAC
evaluation
Emergency
Rehabilitation
and
recovery of livelihoods
Reconstruction/
Development
ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean
The ECLAC Methodology: The procedure
Part I
Description
Part II
Assessment
What is it?
What is the
Whom has it affected?
Magnitude?
Where?
What has been done?
Part III
Rehabilitation and reconstruction
What needs to be
done?
ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean
The ECLAC Methodology: The assessment
Part 1
Social and productive sectors, infrastructure and environment
Assets
Income foregone
Stocks
Higher costs
Damage
Losses
Part 2
Macroeconomic effects
GDP
Fiscal
Accounts
Secondary effects
Balance of
payments
Employment
At the time of
the disaster
Following the disaster
1 to 5 years
Prices
ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean
The Sustainable Livelihoods Approach
Livelihood Assets
H = Human Capital
N = Natural Capital
F = Financial Capital S = Social Capital
P = Physical Capital
LIVELIHOODS
ASSETS
In
VULNERABILITY
CONTEXT
Influence
& access
H
S
N
P
F
TRANSFORMING
STRUCTURES
AND PROCESSES
LIVELIHOODS
STRATEGIES
order
to
achieve
LIVELIHOODS
OUTCOMES
Hurricane Dean
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This system
formed over the
far eastern Atlantic
on 13-Aug-07
A hurricane watch
was issued for
Belize City
northwards to the
Mexican border on
19-Aug-07
Dean had a
forward speed of
approx. 20 mph,
so rainfall impacts
were reduced
significantly.
Hurricane Dean
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Hurricane Dean
made landfall at
Mahahual, Mexico
at 1:45AM on 21Aug-07, as a
Category 5 storm
with 165 mph
maximum sustained
winds;
The system was
very intense but
compact, with
Hurricane force
winds extending
outwards 35 miles,
and storm force
winds outwards 105
miles.
Landfall
ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean
The affected population
ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean
The affected population

Hurricane Dean
affected mainly the
population living in the
Districts of Corozal,
Orange Walk and to a
lesser extent Belize
(damage to Ambergris
Caye and Caye
Caulker)
Characteristics of Population Affected by the impact of
Hurricane Dean by District
Total
Pop
Country
Total
%
311,480
Severely
Affected
Pop
%
Affected
Pop Agri
2%
20,878
100
Total
%
total
%
Corozal
36,365
11.7
3905
10.74
9,110
2.9
745
8.18
27,255
% of
pop
10,685
37,703
12%
% of
Distri
ct
9,091
613
9704
27%
11,786
872
12,658
27%
3,160
8.8
Corozal Rural
Total
Affected
Pop
6,140
District
Corozal Town
Affected
Pop
Tourism
Orange Walk
47,145
15.1
Belize
93,215
29.9
San Pedro
Town
10,445
3.4
11.59
2,235
4.74
9,200
10%
ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean
Severely Affected Population

The number of persons
severely affected by
Hurricane Dean is
estimated to be 6,140
persons – or 11% of the
total population of
Corozal and 5% of the
population of Orange
Walk.
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The two districts
combined contain 41% of
the country’s poor and
9% of the country's
indigent
Severely Affected Population as a
consequence of Hurricane Dean
Comparative look at severely affected by Dean and
Porportion Poor and Indigent by District
Orange Walk
District
% indigent
% poor
% severely aff
Corozal
0
5
10
15
Percentage
20
25
ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean
Vulnerability of women
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Women comprise some 26.8% of all Household Heads in Belize;
FHH traditionally have an increased burden of care than their male counterparts due
to their inability to earn similar incomes, and the necessity to meet similar needs
with fewer resources;
According to the Poverty Assessment (2002), economic vulnerability was high in
Belize, as 36.8% of all households stated that they were experiencing financial
difficulties at the time of the survey. The Orange Walk District had the highest
percentage of all households with financial difficulties (53%);
Women who depend on the informal economy to either support their families
outright, or contribute to their family income through back yard gardens, were
sorely affected by the destruction of fruit trees, vegetables, and food preparation and
sales which they carried out on a daily basis to male workers in the agricultural
sector;
Approximately 200 women’s livelihoods, in the formal economy, was disrupted due
to the impact of Dean on the papaya industry – worked as packers and in the field;
Women and children are at risk of violence and depravation as male partners and
supporters may turn to alcohol and other deviant behaviours as the toll of not being
able to support their families, become a reality following a disaster.
ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean
The disaster: its impact on the
social and the productive sectors
Summary of effects on the social sector
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Total Impact on the
Social sector
BZ$34.33 million
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Housing –
$33,230,100.00;
Education –
$799,900.00;
Health –
$303,300.00
ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean
The impact on the agricultural sector
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In 2006, the agricultural sector ( including fisheries)
contribution to GDP was estimated at 15.8%, representing
the single largest contributor to the economy;
Exports of agricultural and related value added products
represented 70.2% of total domestic exports (2006);
Total damage to the agricultural sector is estimated at BZ
$115.83 million. Damages to the agricultural sector by Keith
(2000) amounted to BZ$124.35 million;
In the affected areas the crop subsector was severely
impacted accounting for 90.6% of the total damage, followed
by the fisheries (8.3%) and livestock (1.1%) subsectors in
that order.
With respect to the crop subsector, the papaya industry was
severely impacted, accounting for 58.1% of total damage to
the agricultural sector, followed by sugar cane (19.7%) , corn
(3.8%) and plantain (3.2%) in terms of severity of damage.
ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean
Summary Damage to Agriculture
SUB SECTOR
DAMAGE
L0SESS
TOTAL DAMAGE/
PAPAYA
25,614,000
41,724,900
67,338,900
SUGAR CANE
8,400,000
14,419,640
22,819,640
CORN
1,988,400
2,390,360
4,378,760
PLANTAINS
1,332,500
2,351,865
3,684,365
OTHER CROPS
2,754,224
3,991,496
6,745,720
40,089,124
64,878,261
104,967,385
LIVESTOCK
943,737
272,095
1,215,832
FISHERIES
1,459,525
8,191,831
9,651,356
42,492,386
73,342,187
115,834,573
SUB-TOTAL CROPS
TOTAL
DAMAGE
Hurricane Dean Impacts on
Infrastructure
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Damage was
primarily
contained in the
northern part of
the country:
Corozal District,
Orange Walk,
and San Pedro
There was
damage to
feeder roads,
building
infrastructure,
houses and
commercial
establishments
Hurricane Dean Impacts
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The main highway system stood up well, but feeder roads
and agricultural roads were badly damaged, as these are
typically unpaved;
Extensive damage occurred to most of the jetties on San
Pedro
There was significant beach erosion on the NE coast of
Ambergris Caye
Impact on Infrastructure
Direct Damage
Transportation/Roads:
Bz$9.41m
Electricity Generation:
Bz$0.85m
Water Supply:
Bz$0.15m
Telecommunications:
Bz$0.50m
Total Direct Damages
Bz$10.91m
Indirect Losses
Transportation:
Bz$0.47m
Electricity Generation:
Bz$0.11m
Water Supply:
Bz$0.08m
Telecommunications:
Bz$0.13m
Total Indirect Losses:
Bz$0.79m
TOTAL DAMAGE AND LOSSES
Bz$11.7m
Impact on Tourism
Direct Damage
Corozal and Environs:
Bz$0.60m
San Pedro & Caye Caulker:
Bz$0.72m
Total Direct Damages
Bz$1.32m
Indirect Losses
Corozal (wages, income, revenue):
Bz$0.38m
San Pedro/Caye Caulker (wages, income, revenue):
Bz$4.45m
Visitor Spend:
Bz$1.87m
Dive and Adventure Tours:
Bz$0.91m
Busses, Tour Guides, etc.:
Bz$0.44m
Total Indirect Losses:
Bz$8.05m
TOTAL DAMAGE AND LOSSES
Bz$9.37m
Impact on the Environment
Direct Damage
Coastal Erosion:
Bz$0.50m
Damage to Vegetation:
Bz$6.00m
Total Direct Damages
Bz$6.50m
Indirect Losses
Damage to Seagrass Beds/Coral Reef:
Bz$0.20m
Water Based Pollution Clean-up:
Bz$1.10m
Total Indirect Losses:
Bz$1.30m
TOTAL DAMAGE AND LOSSES
Bz$7.80m
ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean
The summary of the Impact
US$89.5
BZ$179.03
ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean
The macro-impact of the disaster
ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean
Summary impact in relation to selected
macroeconomic variables
Total
Impact as percentage of GDP
7.4
Impact as percentage of agriculture GDP
63.8
Impact as percentage of exports of goods
20.96
Impact as percentage of exports of goods and services
11.5
Impact as percentage of gross domestic investment
38.8
Impact as percentage of consumption
9.4
Impact as percentage of the public external debt stock
9.1
ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean
Belize
Real GDP growth (2004-2006)
Pre- and Post-disaster scenarios
10
9
8
Pre-disaster
7
6
5
4
3
2
Post-disaster
1
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean
BOP Effects of the disaster for 2007
0
-50
-100
-150
-200
Current Account of BOP
Pre-flood
Post-flood
ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean
Fiscal effects of the disaster for 2007
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
Fiscal Account
Pre-flood
Post-flood
ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean
The disaster and its aftermath
ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean
Vulnerability
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Poverty and its attendant ills;
Rural areas are vulnerable to electricity outages
and impacts to main grid;
Limited training and general education of the
population dependent on agriculture;
Limited financial resources for investment and
recovery in the agricultural sector;
Limited capacity to diversify the economy;
Too strong reliance on one commodity ( e.g.
sugar cane);
ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean
Vulnerability … cont’d
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High burden of care, of female heads of
households with limited resources;
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Water supply in the rural area without reliable
back-up capacity;
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Belize City remains extremely vulnerable to
Storm surge;
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Critical infrastructure requires categorizing and
hazard mapping to develop plans and policies
for vulnerability reduction for Belize city;
ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean
Strategic Mitigation approaches to advance
sustainable livelihoods and development
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Strengthen Disaster Management capacity at
the micro, meso and macro levels;
Build capacity in the capture of information
regarding damage and loss at the community
level;
Build capacity in determining the impact of
siltation on the habitat of fish;
Assess the risk of Belize City to extreme storm
surge and to map all critical facilities;
Evaluate beach erosion extents and possible
effects on telecommunications cables
ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean
Strategic Mitigation approaches cont’d
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Strengthen economic diversification efforts (within and
outside of agriculture) to generate alternative
employment opportunities and as a risk reduction
strategy;
Use resource boom such as receipts from oil production
to reduce debt;
Improve competitiveness of tourism by improved product
development and branding of sub-sectors;
Provide special incentives to increase the participation of
youth and female producers, particularly those who are
heads of households, in the economic development
process;
Address the relocation & or retrofitting of communities
located in hazard zones;
Upgrade the quality of housing and sanitation of the poor
in rural and urban communities;
ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean
Strategic Mitigation approaches… cont’d
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Strengthen affordable micro credit facilities (rural
development investment funds);
Strengthen baseline information systems especially
national statistical systems producing timely and periodic
data;
Undertake a country-wide programme of drain cleaning ;
• Facilitate BTL to move to a wireless overlay system, so
that downed lines will have minimal impact for most
areas across the country;
• Encourage BTL to install back-up generating power at
selected sites;
Short term Recommendations
•Support efforts of civil society to meet the basic needs of
the poorest;
•Provide training for the informal construction sector in risk
reduction practices at community level;
•Conduct an inventory of construction equipment in various
districts – Min. of Works plus private contractors, to reduce
vulnerability in the event of a disaster;
•BEL program of vulnerability reduction should be
continued and encouraged – improved standards,
particularly in coastal zones;
Short term recommendations
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Replacement of automatic recording station at Half Moon
Caye – Meteorological Office
BWS should be encouraged to install own generating
capacity at rural pumping stations;
THANK YOU