Transcript Copernicus Institute

Rationale for Biofuels.
”Biofuels and biodiversity – towards a sustainable use of
Bio-energy”
Organized by: Copernicus Institute – Utrecht University
and KNAW’s Global Change Committee
Amsterdam, 12 December 2007
André Faaij
Copernicus Institute - Utrecht University
Copernicus Institute
Sustainable Development and Innovation Management
Houston we have a problem!
•
•
•
•
•
•
Peak oil
Peak soil
Peak water
Peak biodiversity loss
Peak population
Peak GDP
•
•
•
•
•
Climate
Agriculture
Energy
Biodiversity
Poverty &
development
And it is urgent!
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What’s it gonna be?
material/economic
A1
A2
population: 2050: 8.7 billion
2100: 7.1 billion
GDP:
2050: 24.2 103 billion $95/y
2100: 86.2 103 billion $95/y
technological growth: high
trade: maximal
population: 2050: 11.3 billion
2100: 15.1 billion
GDP:
2050: 8.6 103 billion $95/y
2100: 17.9 103 billion $95/y
technological growth: low
trade: minimal
globally oriented
regionally oriented
B1
B2
population: 2050: 8.7 billion
2100: 7.1 billion
GDP:
2050: 18.4 103 billion $95/y
2100: 53.9 103 billion $95/y
technological growth: high
trade: high
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population: 2050: 9.4 billion
2100: 10.4 billion
GDP:
2050: 13.6 103 billion $95/y
2100: 27.7103 billion $95/y
technological growth: low
trade: low
environmental/social
Pathway vs. climate
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Bron: KNMI; Dorland
Projections for global final energy demand
for the four IPCC scenarios (A1, A2, B1, B2).
Final energy consumption (EJ/yr)
1800
others
electricity
gas
liquids
solids
non-commercial
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
A1 B1
A2 B2
400
200
0
2000
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2030
2050
2100
Future world’s energy supply…
(combined with 80% reduction of GHGemissions): a portfolio of options is
needed!
100
Scenario C1
Traditional renewables
Biomass
Hydro
Nuc.
80
Gas
Percent
Other
Oil
60
Solar
40
Coal
20
0
1850
100
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
Courtesy
Scenario
C2 of IIASA
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Institute renewables
Traditional
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Hydro
Courtesy of Shell
Biomass
Agricultural land use!
• We need a lot more food (especially protein).
• We don’t have (a lot) more (agricultural) land.
• Agriculture and livestock main threat for biodiversity
(today…), main consumer of water, main emitter of
GHG’s.
• Agriculture and poverty interlinked: 70% of the world’s
poor in rural setting;
• Productivity in agriculture is awful on large parts of the
globe.
• Such agricultural practices often unsustainable as such.
• Poverty (and lack of investment) key driver for
unsustainable land use (erosion, forest loss).
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Potential land-use pattern changes
(IMAGE)
A2
14
14
12
12
10
Forest
6
10
Bioreserve
Forest
8
Cropland
6
Grassland
Bioresreve
Area (Gha)
Area (Gha)
A1
4
Rest 4
Restland
low-productivity
2
low-productivity
2
Abandoned
8
0
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
2070
year
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2090
0
1970
Cropland
Grassland
1990
Abandoned
2010
2030
2050
2070
2090
year
[Hoogwijk, Faaij et al., Biomass & Bioenergy, 2005]
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So…
• Investment in agriculture (and livestock) is
essential (2nd green revolution; see e.g. Fresco
in collaboration with Faaij & Dijk);
• This is feasible (FAO)…
• …with increased water use efficiency, less
land, protection of soils and better incomes.
• But: what gets the money and sustainable
economic activity into the rural regions?
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International bio-energy
markets developing fast…
• Excitement:
– entered first phases of commodity market trading
(ethanol); pellets the silent suprise.
– Creates unique opportunities for both producers regions
as importers.
– Entrepreneurs and policy now deal with development of
bioenergy in rapidly developing international context.
• Concerns:
– Fierce international debate on sustainability; remarkably
fast response from governments, companies, NGO’s.
– Different interests & perspectives on governance & policy
– Vulnerable stage; many barriers remain
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Bio-ethanol flows 2000 (kton)
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Courtesy of UNCTAD
Traded: 3 billion litres
Global production: 32 billion litres
Bio-ethanol flows 2004 (kton)
Courtesy of UNCTAD
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Import
Export
2%
27% / 6%
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24% / 32%
1%
13% / 2%
UK
43%
l
Ca
na
da
Fi
nl
an
d
No
rw
ay
Ne
th
er
la
nd
s
Sw
ed
en
Be
l
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26%
21% / 4%
Br
az
i
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
gi
um
Bradley, 2006
Traded bioenergy volume (PJ)
More trade developments
IEA Task 40
Bioenergy today
• 45 EJ + 10 EJ total use
• 9 EJ + 6 EJ commercial; non-modern
• ~ 8 EJ Modern; commercial:
– < 1 EJ electricity
– ~ 2.5 EJ heat
– ~ 1.5 EJ biofuels (bulk = ethanol; half of that ethanol
sugar cane based)
• Main controversy on biofuels from annual crops
and palm oil.
• Currently some 20 Mha in use for biofuels
worldwide (compared to 5,000 Mha for food)
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Generations…
1st Generation (EU, US)
• Annual crops = food
crops.
• Limited to arable land.
• Potential constrained.
• High costs; mainly
feedstock.
• Poor - modest GHG and
env. performance.
• Pushed by ‘simple’
policies.
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2nd generation
• Lignocellulosic materials.
• Residues, wastes, arable,
pasture, marginal and
degraded lands.
• Potential large.
• Strong economic outlook:
technology more
important.
• Good – excellent GHG
and env. performance
• Demanded by more
sophisticated needs
3rd generation: optimized conversion, ‘surprise
feedstocks’ (…). But it will take time!
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Perennial crops
(vs. annual crops)
• Lower costs (< 2 €/GJ)
• Planted for 15-25 years
• Low(er) intensity
– Can restore soil carbon and structure
Miscanthus x giganteus
– Suited for marginal/degraded lands
– Requires less inputs (well below key threshold values)
• Wide portfolio of species & production systems
– Possibilities for enhancing (bio-) diversity
– Adaptable to local circumstances (water, indigenous species)
• Earlier development stage
– Large scale and diverse experience needed
– Learning curve to be exploited
– Improvement potential
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Yields: perennials ~3x annual
Crop
Biomass yield
(odt/ha* yr)
Energy yield in fuel
(GJ/ha*yr)
Wheat
4-5
~ 50
Corn
5–6
~ 60
Sugar Beet
9 – 10
~ 110
Soy Bean
1–2
~ 20
10 – 11
~ 120
Palm Oil
10-15
~ 160
Jathropha
5-6
~ 60
SRC temperate climate
10 – 15
100 - 180
SRC tropical climate
15 - 30
170 - 350
Energy grasses good conditions
10 - 20
170 – 230
Perennials marginal/degraded lands
3 - 10
30 – 120
Sugar Cane
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GHG Balances
Wastes (Waste Oil,
Harvest Residues,
Sewage)
Fibers (Switchgrass,
Poplar)
Sugars (Sugar Cane,
Beet)
Starches (Corn,
Wheat)
Vegetable Oils
(Rapeseed, Sunflower
Seed, Soybeans)
Reduction in CO2 Equivalent Emissions
(Percent)
0
20
40
60
80
100
Source: IEA
120
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IEA – Fulton, 2004
Global potentials
are large…; but
need to be
Agricultural land: <100- >300 EJ developed
Marginal lands: <60- 150 EJ
Agri residues: 15-70 EJ
Forest residues: <30-150 EJ
Dung: 5-55 EJ
Organic waste: 5 - >50 EJ
TOTAL: < 250 - > 500 EJ
111
111
0
137
32 40
34
1 2
315
253
32 39
1 8 14 17
Near East &
North Africa
331
harves ting res idues
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bioenergy crops
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10
21
0 0 0 0
East Asia
410
14
21
21
24
Japan
Ameri
South Asia
149
41
Caribean &
Latin America
CIS &
Baltic States
E.Europe
178
46
221
178
2
W.Europe
4
North America
14
136
68
sub-Saharan
Africa
100
60
15
125
Oceania
America
Bioethanol from
lignocellulosic biomass
1.
2.
3.
4.
SHF
SSF
SSCF
CBP
+BIG/CC…
Major demonstrations
In US/Canada, EU
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16000
15000
U.S.
U.S. projected
RFS
U.S. Ethanol production [million gallons]
14000
Brazil
World
13000
Ethanol plants US
(status 2006)
12000
11000
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
0
Global
ethanol
Production &
outlook
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Source: John Urbanchuk (data for Oct 31 2006; green =
Synthetic fuels from biomass
Biomass & coal gasification to FT liquids - with
gas turbine
Recycle loop
Pre-treatment:
Gasification:
Gas cleaning:
Gas processing:
FT synthesis:
- grinding
- drying
- air or oxygen
- pressurised or
atmospheric
- direct/indirect
- ‘wet’ cold or
‘dry’ hot
- reforming
- shift
- slurry reactor Offgas
or fixed bed
feedstock is
poplar wood
Gas
turbine
- CO2
removal
FT liquids
Power
Major investments in IG-FT capacity
About 50%
ongoing in China right now:
of carbon!
- Reducing dependency on oil imports!
- Without capture strong increase in CO2 emissions…
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What are we waiting for?
Yueyang
Sinopec-Shell
Coal gasification
project; (China)
Shell gasifier arriving
at site September 2006.
15 licences in
China at present…
Courtesy of Shell
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Economic performance 2nd generation
biofuels s.t. & l.t.; 3 Euro/GJ feedstock
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Hamelinck & Faaij, 2006, Energy Policy
Certification bioenergy (I):
ongoing initiatives
• Governments: UK, NL, D, B, and more
EU nations…; EC.
• NGO’s:
• International bodies: UNEP, UNCTAD,
FAO,…
• Market initiatives/multistakeholder:
roundtables on palm, soy and biofuels,
GGL, Electrabel,…
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IEA Task 40:Van Dam et al., 2007;
Biomass & Bioenergy, Forthcoming:
Certification bioenergy (III):
concerted action…
• First time that governments actually try to set
‘sustainability criteria’ for a commodity! ->
Paradigm shift with implications for food
products, fodder, materials etc.
• This takes time (allow for learning).
• Varying degree of concern: palm oil/soy
bean/corn… most debated, other (residues,
wood) are approved by most stakeholders
• Methodological issues to be resolved:
competition, biodiversity, a.o.
• Global convergence, dialogue and deployment
priority (leaders needed).
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Biofuels roadmap (I).
• Biomass resource base; the foundation:
– Perennials; build experience!
– Biomass resource (and land) base much more
diverse than agricultural crops (and land) alone.
– Biomass cultivation schemes (with perennials) can
offer substantial ecological and socio-economic
benefits when done right.
– Develop biomass production in global market
context (international trade & sustainability
demands)
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Biofuels roadmap (II).
• 2nd generation biofuels provide the economics
energy & GHG balance to be the winning option.
• Lignocellulosic based EtOH and gasification
based synfuels compete.
• Synfuels produced from biomass, coal and natural
gas, provide flexible, large scale capacity (+CCS)
• Hydrolysis units can start as ‘add-ons’ to current
EtOH production capacity.
• Lignocellulosic resources for power on shorter
term (now); for fuels on medium term (before
2015).
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Stay with me for 4 more
seconds…
• Current crisis in crossing the global carrying
capacity requires unprecedented action…
• …and it has to be fast!
• …and it will not be easy.
• Bioenergy is at the nexus of land-use (2nd
revolution!), development (poverty!), energy
(oil!) and climate (carbon stocks!); this is a
unique position.
• We have the bioenergy options to achieve
synergies (as well as the wrong ones)
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Stay with me for 2 more
seconds…
• Governance is the key; across policy
fields (agriculture, energy, climate,
development); consistent and stable.
• Policies on biofuels redesigned: from
one to multiple objectives.
• Moratorium on ‘temperate climate
biofuels’ seems wise; save money…
• …and spend it on the right biofuels.
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"Modern bio-energy and biofuels have
the potential to cover one third of the
future world's energy demand on a
sustainable basis and provide a key
lever for much needed rural
development on a global scale".
“Postponing action and generating
confusion is at this stage immoral”
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