Transcript 24.01.12 EW Agriculture and Development - Workspace

1 billion hungry: what role for
agricultural development?
Liz Wilson, Agriculture for Impact
@Ag4Impact
Agriculture for Impact
www.ag4impact.org
The Boss
Nature, 13 August 2009 (S.Torfinn/Panos)
Content
•The context: global challenges
•The role for agricultural
development in food security
•Agriculture for Impact
The Perfect Storm?
Increased demand
50% by 2030 (IEA)
Energy
1. Increasing
population
2. Increasing levels
of urbanisation
3. The rightful goal
to alleviate
poverty
Food
Increased
demand
50% by 2030
(FAO)
Climate
Change
Water
Increased
demand
30% by
2030
(IFPRI)
John Beddington, Chief Scientist, Government Office for Science, speaking at DFID,
12th November 2009
Gordon Conway’s English cottage loaf
Food price volatility
Food price volatility
A global food crisis
1.02 billion people are hungry
1 in 6 of the world’s population
(FAO, 2009)
Hunger is on the rise
Increased impact on developing countries
World Food Programme hunger map
Sub-Saharan Africa
Over 265 million people are undernourished
(26% of global total)
Home to 15 of the 16 countries where the
prevalence of hunger exceeds 35%
Why does it matter?
•Food security underpins global security
•Economic time bomb
•Humanitarian imperative
Food security underpins global security
The Guardian, 9 April 2008: Kena Betancur/EPA
Economic time bomb
Humanitarian imperative
Food Security
“Food
security exists when all people, at all
times, have physical and economic access to
sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets
their dietary needs and food preferences for
an active and healthy life”.
(World Food Summit, 1996)
Entitlements
Starvation is the characteristic of some people not
having enough food to eat. It is not the of there being
not enough food to eat
Amartya Sen,1982
Four dimensions of food security
GDP growth from agriculture benefits the income of the poor
2-4 times more than GDP growth from non-agriculture
Lack of investment in agriculture
1980s:
17% of ODA
30% of World Bank lending
Mid 2000s:
4% of ODA
7% of World Bank lending
EU overseas development assistance to agriculture
ODA from Europe (Thirtle, Piesse and Hearn, 2009 via OECD DAC data)
25,000
2007 $ US, millions
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1973
1971
1969
1967
Years
DAC EU members to Africa
DAC EU members to agriculture
DAC EU to SSA agriculture
African agriculture
•80% (33 million farms) less than 2 hectares (smallholders)
•50% of the agricultural labour force is female
•Cereal yields, around one ton per hectare, ¼ of those in East Asia.
•Fertilisers are applied at average rates of about 11kg/ ha of arable
land (compared to 112kg/ha in Latin American and the Caribbean)
•Only 4% of cultivated land is irrigated, of which 70% is Madagascar,
Nigeria and Sudan. The potential exists to bring 20 million hectares
of land under irrigation.
•Many pests, diseases and weeds such as Striga, Black Sigatoka,
Banana wilt, Cassava mosaic virus, Maize leaf streak and Maruca
beetles can destroy crops.
.
A continent of many different stories
175
Africa
Eastern Africa
Middle Africa
Northern Africa
Southern Africa
Western Africa
150
Asia
125
100
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
75
‘Africa is not in crisis but some African countries are’ (Wiggins, 2011)
Delivering change
Looking for win-wins:
•Increasing yields sustainably
•Enabling access to markets
•Political leadership
Sustainable intensification
Quality as well as quantity
Access to markets
Political leadership
Agriculture for Impact
The gap
High level rhetoric
Gap?
Grassroots activity
Opportunities to influence
•CAADP
•G8 : UK Presidency in 2013
•G20
•EU 2014-2020
•GROW Africa / WEF initiative
Our focus
Our activities
How can we feed the world?
•Highly productive
•Stable
•Resilient
•Equitable
•Sustainable
What is ‘successful’ scaling up?
Link to private sector?
www.weforum.org
Beyond islands of happiness?
What is scaling up?
Becoming large?
What is scaling up?
Expanding impact?
The Boss
Nature, 13 August 2009 (S.Torfinn/Panos)
www.ag4impact.org
@Ag4Impact
[email protected]
Liz Wilson, Agriculture for Impact
11th January 2012