Transcript Power and Drivers of Change Analysis

Power and Drivers of Change
Analysis
Ben Dickinson
OECD DAC Secretariat
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Evolving donor approaches
1980s:
Training
to Governance
(individual human capacity)
Early 1990s:
Organisational
Development
Late 1990s:
Institutional
Development.
2002 :
Power and
Drivers of
Change.
History/ Political
Economy
2006:
Global drivers of bad governance?
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2004-2006 DAC Work on PDoC
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Task Team formed (DFID, Sida, Norad, World Bank)
Lessons learned study on the use of Power and
Drivers of Change Analyses in development cooperation.
Lessons note on “Using Political Economy Analysis
to Improve Aid Effectiveness” (forthcoming)
Regional workshop planned for 2006 to (i) illustrate
relevance of DAC/GOVNET work at the country level
and (ii) explore how donors have joined up around
the use of analysis.
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Impact?
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Allows more realistic ambitions for donor
interventions to be set.
Takes donors into new areas (state building aspects
of taxation).
Formalised and insitutionalised what we already
knew, potential for harmonised approaches.
Shared understanding could lead to more consistent
donor approaches (especially to problems like
corruption).
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Tension 1
Tension between

expectations for long-term incremental change that
emphasises a shift from clients to citizens and
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ambitions for delivering results, particularly the
MDGs, emphasising pro-poor change.
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Tension 2
Tension between
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often low cost, opportunistic and patient approaches
to reform and
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pressures to spend, particularly in an era of scaledup aid (according to DAC projections an additional
$50 Bn by 2010, which will exacerbate aid
dependency)
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Will Aid Dependency Worsen?
ODA%
GDP
ODA $ per
head
ODA%GDP
DAC simulation
ODA/
GXP%
GBS%
GDP
2004
2003
2010
2004
2004
Burundi
53.4
31.0
63.2
88.0
Sierra Leone
33.4
57.0
48.5
128.0
10.0
Afghanistan
38.0
53.0
45.6
Malawi
26.3
47.0
43.3
71.0
5.4
Rwanda
25.3
40.0
40.5
78.0
10.3
Madagascar
28.3
32.0
36.7
46.0
2.9
Mozambique
22.1
55.0
36.2
88.0
7.6
Congo, DR.
27.6
102.0
32.1
592.0
Ethiopia
22.6
23.0
31.7
79.0
Nicaragua
28.3
152.0
29.5
103.0
5.5
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Tension 3
Tensions between
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The state/country/nation as the primary unit of
analysis and
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Increasing recognition of the regional and global
drivers of change and bad governance.
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Tension 4
Tensions between
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The principle of ownership and transparency and
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not sharing the results of studies which include
sensitive and searching questions, which impact
upon vested interests.
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Tension 5
Tensions between
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The need to harmonise and consolidate analyses,
avoiding proliferation and
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The need for diverse perspectives, views and
opinions.
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