Transcript Eight Things You May Not Know

EIGHT THINGS YOU
(MAY NOT) KNOW
ABOUT AFRICA
John Page, Chief Economist
Africa Region, World Bank
October 31, 2006
1
1. AFRICA’S GROWTH RATES
ARE CATCHING UP TO OTHER
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
2
African per capita income is now increasing
in tandem with other developing countries …
Annual Change in Real per capita GDP %
Forecast
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1 1990
-2
-3
-4
Source: World Bank
Developing Countries
Developing excluding China and India
Sub-Saharan Africa
High-Income Countries
1995
2000
2005
2008
3
… growth has improved since the
1980’s
7
6
5
4
East Asia
Europe
3
LAC
2
MENA
1
South Asia
Africa
0
-1
-2
-3
80s
90s
2001-05
4
2. ECONOMIC OUTCOMES ARE
INCREASINGLY DIVERSE, WHILE
SOCIAL OUTCOMES ARE
CONVERGING
5
Africa’s growth experience increasingly
diverse
7
% GDP growth, 1996-2005%
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Little or no
growth
countries: 20%
of Africa's
population
Slow
growth
countries:
16% of
Africa's
population
Sustained growth
countries: 36% of
Africa's population
Oil exporters: 29% of
Africa's population
6
SOCIAL OUTCOMES ARE CONVERGING
Share of population by under-5 mortality rate (per 1,000)
Share of population by gross primary enrollment rate
1
0.8
70.4%
0.9
0.7
0.8
0.6
0.7
0.5
0.6
0.4
0.5
0.3
0.4
0.2
16.8%
13.0%
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.1
0
0
below 100
100-200
above 200
below 50%
50-75%
above 75%
7
3. PRODUCTIVITY IN AFRICA’S
BEST PERFORMERS (AND
BEST FIRMS) EQUALS ASIAN
COMPETITORS
8
Africa’s best performers are on par
with India, Vietnam
Growth, Investment efficiency and investment gap
35%
30%
25%
20%
Incremental output/capital ratio (as
percent)
15%
Investment as % of GDP
10%
5%
0%
Africa:
Africa: Slow Africa: Little or India, 1995-2004 Vietnam, 1995Sustained growth countries no growth
2004
growth countries
countries
9
Factory floor costs compare well with
India & China
Direct cost per male shirt
$0.80
$0.65
$0.60
$0.40
$0.20
$0.29
$0.16 $0.18 $0.12 $0.16 $0.19
$0.17
$0.00
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10
4. AFRICA IS A HIGH COST
PLACE TO INVEST BUT LACK OF
INFRASTRUCTURE MAY
CONSTRAIN INVESTMENT MORE
11
Africa lags other regions in the cost of
doing business …
Ease of doing business rank, Simple average by region
Average Ranking of Ease of Doing Business, the lower the better
140
Ranking range 1-155
120
116
100
84
87
Latin
America &
Caribbean
Middle East
& North
Africa
79
76
80
57
60
40
20
0
Sub-Saharan
Africa
East Asia &
Pacific
East Europe
and Central
Asia
South Asia
Data sources: The World Bank Doing Business Database, 2005 survey.
Building the private sector
12
…and in access to infrastructure
Access to electricity (% of population)
100
86.6%
90
87.3%
90.4%
80
70
60
50
40.8%
40
30
24.7%
20
10
0
Sub-Saharan Africa
South Asia
East Asia & Pacific
Middle East & North Africa
Data sources: The World Bank WDI database, April 2006.
Latin America & Caribbean
Building the private sector
13
5. SUCCESS INCREASING
PRIMARY ENROLLMENTS IS NOT
MIRRORED IN SECONDARY AND
TERTIARY EDUCATION.
14
Gross primary enrollment rate has
risen sharply
School enrollment, primary (% gross)
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1991
2000
2004
15
an
Af
ric
84
39
1990
57
47
49
2002
21
a
in
co
As
m
ia
e
M
&
id
Pa
dle
So c ifi c
Ea
La
ut
st
ti n
h
&
Am
No As i
er
rth a
i ca
Af
Eu
r
&
ro
Ca ic a
pe
rib
&
Ce bea
n
nt
ra
lA
si a
33
48
Af
ric
32
69
Lo
w
43
90
Ea
st
68
Percent
87
an
Percent
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Su
bSa
ha
r
a
in
co
m
So
e
Ea
u
La
t
st
h
ti n
As
As
ia
Am
ia
&
er
M
Pa
i ca
id
c if
dle
&
ic
Ca
Ea
r
st
ibb
&
ea
Eu
No
n
ro
r
th
pe
A
&
fri
Ce
ca
nt
ra
lA
si a
Lo
w
Su
bSa
ha
r
Africa lags in secondary and tertiary
education
Gross secondary enrollment ratio
Gross tertiary enrollment ratio
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
44
24
9
4
2
13
5
5
27
17
34
10
1990
2002
16
6
16
6. MORTALITY AND LIFE
EXPECTANCY HAVE REGRESSED
TO LEVELS OF PREVIOUS
DECADES
17
LIFE Expectancy And Mortality
550
55
500
50
450
45
400
40
350
35
300
30
1960
1970
1980
Mortality rate, adult, male (per 1,000 male adults)
1990
1997
2002
Life expectancy at birth, total (years) 18
Malaria has not received adequate
attention and is a major cause of
death of children
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Angola
Benin
Burkina
Faso
Eritrea
Gambia,
The
Ghana
GuineaBissau
Kenya
Nigeria
Tanzania
Uganda
Percentage of children under five sleeping under insecticide-treated bednets 2000-2004
Percentage of children under five with fever accessing effective antimalarial drugs 1997-2004
Zambia
19
7. INEQUALITY LIMITS THE
BENEFITS OF GROWTH TO THE
POOR
20
Inequality limits the benefits of
growth to the poor
Poverty headcount/Gini, %
The Poor as Percent of Total Population and Inequality:
60
Gini-
50
Head count
40
49.8
50.5
38.3
37.7
30
33.2
32.3
46.4
31.9
20
10
2.4
3.5
9.9
14.3
MENA
ECA
LAC
EAP
0
South
Asia
SubSaharan
Africa
Data sources: The World Bank Global Poverty Monitoring Database
21
M
ad
ag
oz a sc
am ar
Bu bi 19
rk qu 99
in e 1
a
Fa 996
Et so 2
hi
op 003
Za ia 2
m 00
bi
0
a
K
19
en
y 98
M a1
ala 99
wi 7
G 19
Ca han 97
m a1
9
er
oo 98
U n2
ga 00
nd
1
a1
Sa
o
9
N
99
To Th
i
m e G ger
ea a
2
nd mb 005
P ia
Co rinc 199
te ipe 8
d'I
2
vo 00
0
i
Bu re 1
ru 99
nd 8
G i 19
ui
ne 98
a
20
02
M
Percent of population with access to improved water source
And the rural-urban divide
remains dramatic
Rural-urban divide in access to improved water source
120
100
80
92
70
60
10
11
15
89
37
86
40
39
89
45
96
48
50
93
51
96
66
90
79
66
84
72
72
82
98
95
84
88
67
52
Rural
Urban
20
0
19
Data sources: Africa Region Household Survey Standardized Files.
22
8. INTERNATIONAL FOCUS ON
AFRICA IS GROWING BUT STILL
FALLS SHORT OF 1990 AND THE
GLENEAGLES TARGETS
23
International focus on Africa is
growing, but still falls short of 1990
25000
8
7
5
1
1
10000
19
14
11
16
Net ODA, excluding debt forgive
grant
6
Total ODA to SSA, $2000
5
15
4
3
ODA as % of GDP
10
ODA as % of GDP
Debt forgive grant
Total ODA, billion $US
3
15000
5000
20
7
2
5
12
1
0
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
0
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
Total net ODA, b$
20000
25
Data sources and WBI database.
24
… and changes in ODA
composition were significant
ODA Composition
100%
5%
6%
8%
24%
21%
11%
17%
12%
13%
18%
18%
90%
80%
24%
Emergency aid
70%
12%
Percnet
60%
Technical cooperation
28%
21%
50%
Debt forgiveness grant
40%
30%
59%
59%
54%
42%
20%
48%
Net ODA excluding debt
forgiveness, technical cooperation,
and emergency aid
10%
0%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
25
Africa Development Indicators ‘06
Office of the Chief Economist
Africa Region, World Bank
http://www.worldbank.org/afr/ce
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