Transcript Professor Norman Girvan

FOUR QUESTIONS FOR REGIONAL
INTEGRATION
Norman Girvan
In Honour of Professor Alfred Francis
Mona, September 30, 2007
Limitations
•
•
•
•
Reliance on market mechanisms
Emphasis on economic aspect
Inter-governmental mode
Response to external pressure
Intra-regional exports
OECS
The Bahamas
Barbados
Belize
Guyana
Haiti
Jamaica
Suriname
Trinidad & Tobago
Total Caricom
Caricom ex. T&T
US$ Million Percent Total AAGR
1993 2003 1993 2003
%
72
85
12
6 1.6
..
..
..
..
..
71
103
11
7 3.7
5
18
1
1 13.9
35
99
6
7 11.1
0
0.2
0
0
..
62
63
10
4
0
8
40
1
3 17.5
370 1059
59
72 11.1
624 1467
100
100 8.9
254
408
4.9
Importance of Caricom to member states
Intra-regional exports
OECS
The Bahamas
Barbados
Belize
Guyana
Haiti
Jamaica
Suriname
Trinidad & Tobago
% XG
% XGS
38.2
0.4
43.6
17.2
18.8
0.1
4.8
6.3
20.8
7.8
0.1
8.5
10.8
13.9
0.1
1.9
5.7
18.1
XG Exports of goods, 2001-2003 XGS exports of goods & services, 2002 (estimated)
Source: based on INTAL Caricom Report No. 2, Tables 2,3 & 5
•Jessen et al (IDB CARICOM Report No. 2) found that
intra-regional trade growth in the 1990s was highest in
products enjoying little protection from the CET; and
lowest in products enjoying high protection.
• Morrira and Mendoza (IDB 2006) on the basis of
descriptive statistics, empirical growth model and
gravity model; concluded that the traditional, traderelated gains from regional integration have been and are
bound to be, limited because of (i) high openness (ii)
limited size of regional market and (iii) similar factor
endowments.
•Gains in the sharing of social and physical
infrastructure, due to economies of scale that cannot
been mitigated by trade and openness, can be substantial
Pop.
GDP.
$B PPP
Pop
GDP
CARICOM
CSME
(M)
15
6
48
39
1
1
Cuba
11
44
1.8
1.1
Dom. Republic
9
67
1.5
1.7
Venezuela
27
174
4.5
4.5
MERCOSUR
235
2251
39.2
57.7
NAFTA
441
15393
73.5
394.7
EU
459
10817
76.5
277.4
(1) Billions of current Euros 2005
Ratio to CSME
Economic drivers - Criteria
• Sustained growth of exports to international
markets, or
• Growth in intra-regional exports, or
• Significant growth in supplies, at low real cost,
of a key input that is important to the
achievement of international competitiveness in
other activities (e.g. energy)
Economic drivers
•
•
•
•
•
Energy
Agriculture
Sustainable Tourism and Agro-tourism
Manufacturing
New export services
DEVELOPMENT VISION
Economic
Social
Governance
Environmental
ECONOMIC
INTEGRATION
Single Market
Single Economy
FUNCTIONAL
COOPERATION
Social
Environmental
FOREIGN POLICY
COORDINATION
NATIONAL POLICIES & PROGRAMMES
CSME Implementation Deficit
Percent of required actions completed, Aug 05
Legal & Institutional Infrastructure
83.9
Single Market
61.6
- - Free Movements of Goods
80.0
- Free Movement of Services
79.2
- Free Movement of Persons
56.4
- Free Movement of Capital
55.6
- Right of Establishment
50.0
Single Economy
8.9
- Common External Policy
52.8
- Harmonisation of Laws
1.0
- Sectoral Programmes & Enabling Environment
0
- Common Support Measures
8.3
TOTAL
50.3