Transcript Document

Climate Change, Water and
Tourism
Carlos Fuller
International and Regional Liaison
Officer
Evidence of Warming
Source: IPCC
PGIA Average Temperatures
Source: NMS,
Belize
Temperatures (C)
27.4
27.2
27.0
26.8
26.6
26.4
26.2
26.0
25.8
25.6
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
Years
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Sea Levels are Rising
Guyana:
• Temp increase of 1°C
from 1909 to 1998
• Sea level rise is 5 times
greater than global avg.
– 10.2 mm per year from
1951-1979
• Rainfall patterns
abnormal
– More intense rainfall and
longer dry spells
Source: IPCC
More Extreme Events !
Saint Lucia Example
2009/2010: Worst drought in Saint Lucia in 40
years!
Hurricane Tomas in Saint Lucia in 2010
produced 25” of rainfall in some areas in 24
hours!
Temperature Projections
Results from the Regional
PRECIS Model
ECHAM4 – A2
HADCM3 – A2
Annual warming of between 1°C and
5°C by the 2080s
Greater warming in the NW
Caribbean (Jamaica, Cuba,
Hispaniola, Belize) than in the eastern
Caribbean
Greater warming in the summer
months than in the cooler and
traditionally drier months of the year
ECHAM4 – B2
HADCM3 – B2
Mean changes in the annual surface
temperature for period 2071-2099
Rainfall Projections
Results from the Regional
PRECIS Model
ECHAM4 – A2
HADCM3 – A2
A drier Caribbean except for western
Cuba , south Bahamas, Costa Rica and
Panama
A pronounced north/south gradient in
rainfall change during the dry season
(January to April)
Wet season becoming drier
ECHAM4 – B2
HADCM3 – B2
Annual mean changes in rainfall (%) for
2071-2099
Sea Level Rise
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Erosion
Coastal flooding
Inundation
Saltwater intrusion
Mangroves
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Tourist destinations
Human settlements
Water supply
Agriculture
Aquaculture
Fisheries
Water Security:
–Salt water intrusion
–Less rainfall
–More evaporation
Vulnerability Studies on Agriculture in Belize
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DSSAT
Beans, corn and rice
2°C rise in temp, ±20% change in precipitation
Result: 14- 19% decline in yield for beans
Result: 10 - 14% decline in yield for rice
Result: 22 – 17% decline in yield for corn
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PRECIS, DSSAT4 and Cropwat
Sugarcane and Citrus
2028 & 2050
1 & 2.5°C rise in temp
± 12 & 20% change in precipitation
Result: 12-17% decline in yields for sugarcane
Result: 3 – 5% decline in yields for citrus
Forests Threatened
Higher Temperatures
Lower Humidity
More Forest Fires
More Pests and Diseases
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Belize: 1999-2000
High temperatures & low humidity
Pine bark beetle infestation
75% of nation’s pine forest destroyed
Poor forest management
Climate change
Impacts on timber industry and biodiversity
Contributed to emissions of GHGs
Increased erosion – poor water quality (rivers and sea)
Impacts of One Metre Sea level Rise for
CARICOM
• Over 2,700 km2 land area lost (10% of The Bahamas) valued at over US$70 billion
• Over 100,000 people displaced (8% of population of Suriname, 5% of population
of The Bahamas, 3% of population of Belize)
– Cost to rebuild basic housing, roads and services (water, electricity) for displaced
population approximately US $1.8 billion
• Annual GDP losses of US $1.2 billion (over 6% in Suriname, 5% in The Bahamas,
3% in Guyana and Belize)
• At least 16 multi-million dollar tourism resorts lost, with a replacement cost of
over US $1.6 billion and the livelihoods of thousands of employees and
communities affected
• Over 1% agricultural land lost, with implications for food supply and rural
livelihoods (4% in Suriname, 3% in The Bahamas, 2% in Jamaica)
• Transportation networks severely disrupted
– Loss of 10% of CARICOM island airports at a cost of over US $715 million
– Lands surrounding 14 ports inundated (out of 50) at a cost of over US $320 million
– Reconstruction cost of lost roads exceeds US $178 million (6% of road network in
Guyana, 4% in Suriname, 2% in The Bahamas)
Source: Simpson, et. al., (2009) An Overview of Modelling Climate Change Impacts in the Caribbean Region with
contribution from the Pacific Islands, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Barbados, West Indies
Impacts of One Metre Sea Level Rise for
CARICOM
• Total Economic Impact:
• GDP loss = > US $1.2 billion per year
(cumulatively US $30 billion if 1m SLR occurs
in 2075)
• Permanently lost land value = US $70 billion
• Reconstruction / relocation costs = $4.64
billion
Source: Simpson, et. al., (2009) An Overview of Modelling Climate Change Impacts in the
Caribbean Region with contribution from the Pacific Islands, United Nations Development
Programme (UNDP), Barbados, West Indies
CARICOM Response
•
Endorsed by the CARICOM Heads of
Government in July 2002
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An intergovernmental specialized agency
of CARICOM with an independent
management that is guided by
The CARICOM Council of Trade and
Economic Development (COTED) on
policy matters.
A board of directors with responsibility
for strategic planning.
A technical secretariat headed by an
Executive Director with responsibility
for tactical planning.
• The Centre is mandated to coordinate the
regional response to climate change and
its efforts to manage and adapt to its
projected impacts.
• The Centre possesses full juridical
personality.
• Financially independent
Operational since
January 2004
 Located in
Belmopan, Belize
The Regional Framework for Achieving Development
Resilient to Climate Change
The Regional Framework:
“Establishes
and
guides
the
Caribbean’s direction for the
continued building of resilience to
the impacts of global climate change
by CARICOM States”.
Articulates the strategic direction for
the region’s response to climate
change risks.
Approved by the CARICOM Heads of
Government at their meeting in
Georgetown, Guyana in July 2009
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The Five Strategic Elements of the Regional
Framework
Mainstreaming
Climate Change into
the SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT
AGENDA and work
programmes of public
and private
institutions in all
Caribbean Community
countries at all levels
Promoting systems
and actions to
REDUCE THE
VULNERABILITY of
Caribbean Community
countries to global
Climate Change
wherever possible
Promoting measures
to DERIVE BENEFIT
FROM THE PRUDENT
MANAGEMENT of
forests, wetlands, and
the natural
environment, in
general, and to
protect that natural
environment
Promoting actions and
arrangements to
REDUCE GREENHOUSE
GAS EMISSIONS,
including those aimed
at energy-use
efficiency by
increasingly resorting
to low-emission
renewable energy
sources
Promote
implementation of
SPECIFIC ADAPTATION
MEASURES to address
key vulnerabilities in
the Region.
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The Implementation Plan
The Implementation Plan (IP) for the
Regional Framework, defines the
regional strategy for coping with
Climate Change over the period 20122022
Approved by the 23rd Inter-Sessional
Meeting of CARICOM Heads held in
Suriname 8-9 March, 2012.
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Sectors Identified in the Regional Framework
Coastal
and
marine
Tourism
Energy
Water
Health
Forest
Agriculture
and food
security
Actions Identified IP Strategic Element 2,
Goal 1
• Assess, quantify and map surface and ground water
resources in CARICOM States (2012-2017) – In
collaboration with GWP Caribbean
• Undertake vulnerability and capacity assessment of
the impacts of climate change on water (2011-2017)
- In collaboration with GWP Caribbean
• Assess, quantify and evaluate water demand and
consumption patterns (2011-2015) - In collaboration
with GWP Caribbean
IP Strategic Element 2, Goal 1
(continued)
• Prepare water sector adaptation strategies for all
CARICOM countries by 2017 – CIMH & CEHI
• Implement water sector adaptation strategies for all
CARICOM countries (2013-2021) – In collaboration
with GWP Caribbean
• Develop climate resilient IWRM strategies in all
CARICOM countries (2011-2016) - In collaboration
with GWP Caribbean
• Establish water resources management agencies
where necessary and provide additional support
where agencies exist (2012-2017) – In collaboration
IP Strategic Element 2, Goal 1
(continued)
• Install water distribution infrastructure in
selected countries (2012-2012)
– Antigua, Dominica, Jamaica and St. Kitts
• Strengthen the resilience of water
infrastructure to extreme events/natural
hazards (2012-2021)
– Antigua, Belize, Dominica, Jamaica, St. Kitts
Water Related Projects Implemented
• MACC
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Regional climate change policy
Climate Modeling
Vulnerability assessment of ground water in Jamaica
Vulnerability assessment of surface water in Belize
Development of Belize national water policy and National Integrated
Water Act (NIWA)
• SPACC
– Rainwater harvesting and recycling Saint Lucia Coconut Bay Hotel and
Resort
– Installation of salt water reverse osmosis system in Bequia, St. Vincent
and the Grenadines
– Installation of irrigation system in Milton, Dominica
• UNESCO Coastal Aquifers Project
– Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago
THE PROBLEM
• Rainfall projected to
decrease in the Caribbean
– 26-53% decrease in
precipitation by 2050
• More intense extreme
events (storms and
droughts)
– Hurricane Tomas in Saint
Lucia in 2010 produced 25” of
rainfall in some areas in 24
hours!
– 2009-2010-worst drought in
Saint Lucia in 40 years!
Coconut Bay Resort and Spa
• Began operation in
2005
• All inclusive resort
• 3 pool-water park
• 254 rooms
• Four floors, four
buildings
Water Usage by Coconut Bay
Resort and Spa
• The property uses, on average,
2.1 million gallons (9,534,000
litres) per month, or 5% of the
total production for the VieuxFort area
• Coconut Bay operates a 3-pool
water park, which uses
substantial quantities of water225,000 US Gallons
• 2nd highest consumer of water
in Vieux-Fort. It uses the water
equivalent of 1,726 persons per
day (population of 14,561
persons), or approximately 12%
of the Vieux-Fort population
Project Components
• Rainwater harvesting
system for toilet flushing
and pool topping.
• Rainwater used for toilet
flushing will be treated in
sewage treatment system
and recycled for
landscaping-two-prong
conservation of potable
supply
• Expected reduction in water
purchased for toilet-flushing
and replenishment of
swimming pools by
approximately 3,000,000
• Sewage treatment,
recycling and irrigation -for
landscaping
• This component will reduce
the amount of water
purchased for maintenance
of the grounds by
approximately 21,000,000
litres annually
THE PROJECT
• Cost (works) EC$773 846.56
• Capacity of wastewater
storage tank 204 360 L (44
953 Imp gal)
• Capacity of north rain
water storage tank 18 014 L
(3 962 Imp gal)
• Capacity of south rain
water tank 27 020 L (5 944
Imp gal)
THE AGREEMENT
• MOU between the CCCCC,
the Government of Saint
Lucia and Coconut Bay
indicating roles and
responsibilities of each
party
• Full approval of project by
the Development Control
Authority in 2009
• Signed Financial Agreement
between the CCCCC and
Coconut Bay
– Co financing 75:25
– Budget of US$325,000
CCCCC Financial Analysis
• Operating costs increased – electricity to run pumps
• Environmental benefits
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the avoided loss in revenue from tourist reef related activities
the avoided loss in revenue from reduced fishes landed
the avoided loss in beach and sea recreational activities
the avoided property damage
• Social benefits
– Reduced demand on municipal water supply
– Health
• Net present cumulative economical, social and environmental
benefits must range from:
– @ 5% discount factor US$1.5 million to US$3.3 million
– @10% discount factor US$1.1 million to US$2.4 million
– @15% Discount factor US$0.9 million to US$1.9 million
Economist’s Conclusion
• From a financial perspective, CBBRAS must seek to minimize
the cost associated with this system as the resort will be
responsible for financing the cost associated with operating
these systems.
• However, CBBRAS might see it differently as some of the cost
included in our analysis, such as labour cost, which based on
the cost scenarios range from 12% to 33% of annual total cost,
can be looked at business as usual, as well as, there might be
existing economies of scale and cost saving measures that our
analysis did not capture.
WHY INVEST?
• Recognition for
exemplary work
• Initiative can be a good
marketing tool
• Enhanced resilience of
resort during potable
water shortages
• Cost savings for
Coconut Bay Beach
Resort and Spa!
New Activities Onstream
• Install 60 hydrometeorological stations in
CARIFORUM States (GCCA project)
• Replicate the Dominica, Saint Lucia and St.
Vincent and the Grenadines pilots projects
across the Caribbean (GCCA project)
– Petite Martinique and Carriacou, Grenada
Please visit our website for further information!
Carlos Fuller
International and Regional Liaison Officer
[email protected]
WEBSITE LISTED ON
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CLIMATE CHANGE!