Transcript Chapter 12: International Trade Patterns

Chapter 13: International Trade
Patterns
• Learning objectives in this chapter:
– Describing the evolving patterns of
international commerce
– Documenting emerging markets for global
exports
– Examining global trade flows in six major
commodity groups
Backdrop
• Capitalism is in constant political and economic
flux (****key interpenetration of these two
themes*****)
• This chapter complements Chapter 12, with a
largely empirical description of international
trade
• International trade has gradually expanded in
the post WW-II time period, and its growth has
generally outpaced GDP expansion (Figure
13.3)
• Global economic growth has been uneven, and
has reflected global recessions and expansions
– see Figure 13.1, Figure 13.2, Tables 13.1, 13.2
World Economic Growth (%
Change in GDP)
Share of world output
Table 13.1: Shifting Proportions of
World Output
0.3
North America
0.25
Other Western
Hemisphere
0.2
Middle East
0.15
Asia and Oceania
0.1
Western Europe
0.05
E. Europe and
Russia
0
1980
1990
2000
Africa
World Bank GDP % Change
Figure clearly shows
rising rates of
exports compared
to overall production
levels, especially
in manufacturing
? What about services?
All the evidence we have
points to the same trend
Emerging Markets
• Table 13.2 & Figure 13.3 make the point that
globally the developing countries in Asia are the
key points of expansion for export markets
Post 2000?
Text discussion of
differences in trade policy
Impact of shift from natural resources to
manufactured goods in this bar chart
World Patterns of Trade: The
United States
Note Change in Scale!
The Shifting Geography of U.S.
Merchandise Trade
Scale must be off – high by 1,000
Figure 13.7 – U.S. – Canada Trade, Figure 13.5 updates this to 2000
Table 13.4 indicates how concentrated U.S. trade is with a few nations
U.S. Services Trade
• Unlike merchandise, the U.S. has a big
trade surplus in services
• Exports include quasi-services such as
software
• Intellectual property & multimedia
• Telecommunications
• Travel – business & tourist
• Financial
• ??? Offshoring of services???
U.S. Trade in Key Commodities
The rise of Airbus,
Bombardier (sp?)
Rise of imports from
Japan, Korea, Mexico,
And Canada
U.S. Trade in Key Commodities
The shift from a net exporter
to a net importer
Canadian Exports: The U.S.
Dependence
Mismatch in size between U.S. and Canadian economies
Canadian Exports: From A Staplesbased economy to diversified products
Most
trade
today is
without
tariffs:
but
lumber
exports to
U.S. are
an
exception
The EU
• The largest trading block of countries in
the world – see Figure 13.10
• Exports are relatively large, given the
population of Europe
• There are several explanations for this:
– The relative wealth of European countries
– The small sizes of the countries and their
relatively strong reliance on neighbors for
markets (like states in the U.S. in many ways)
– Highly developed transportation system
Germany: Europe’s Largest
Exporter
Solid trade surplus
Great Britain: More strongly tied to
Europe than Germany, but this
figures excludes service exports
France: Strong European Ties
A more diversified mix of exports and imports than Germany or the U.K.
Italy: Much more Strongly Integrated with
Europe than Germany, UK, and France
Is a gravity model type relationship evidence in %’s of exports/imports for
Germany, Italy and France?
Western Europe’s Trade Balance
Latin America
• A divergent set of economies – some very
stable, others unstable – some very poor
and others with middle incomes
• Diverse resource endowments
• Diverse historical backgrounds
• Diverse political structures
• The shift in development strategies from
import-substitution to export-led
industrialization
Mexico’s Exports & Imports
Relatively large
staples exports
Huge U.S. Dependence
Ignores services
exports / imports