Transcript The Scope of Disaster Risk and Key Concepts

The Scope of Disaster Risk
and Key Concepts
Objectives:
Highlight rising pattern of disaster loss
Show range of inputs from different
disciplines
Introduce key concepts
Why be concerned about
disaster risk?
Dramatic increase in global and regional
losses in recent decades
2000 data - Munich Re reported 850
catastrophes w/natural trigger (100 more
than 1999, 200 more than annual 1990s
average)
Sobering economic loss
information
In 1990s, global economic costs of
disasters w/natural trigger > US$ 608 bn
3 x more than 1980s
9 x more than 1960s
by 2050, expected to reach $US300
bn/annually
Massive North-South
Imbalance
Developed countries annual loss around
2-5% GDP … compared to 13.4% of GDP
in poor countries.
International stats exclude drought and
uninsured losses … under-report losses
from South
Likely Impacts of Climate
Change
>70% of all disaster losses are weatherrelated
During 21st Century, climate-related
losses are expected to increase
dramatically.
Climate Change Effects
Increased temps from 1.4-5.8o C 19902100
Sea levels increase by 90cm
Greater weather extremes (more intense
droughts, more heavy rains, cyclones)
Implications for Africa
Impact on food and water security
Increasing exposure to cyclonic and storm
systems
Increased probability of wild fires
Expansion of malarious zones
Lost foreign exchange from agricultural
exports.
Disaster Risk Reduction is
Interdisciplinary
Natural hazards perspective.
Social vulnerability
Disaster management
Humanitarianism
(Re)insurance and banking
Hazards Perspective
Driven from physical sciences. Focus on
conditions/processes that ‘cause’ damage.
Hazards classified as:
natural
technological
social/violence
compound
Social Vulnerability
Perspective
Has its origins in social science and
research on famine (Sen) in India
Significant emphasis on structural factors
that increase/diminish disaster risk (ie
power, poverty, political marginalisation,
family networks, community structures
etc).
Disaster Management
Perspective
Evolution from civil defence to civil
protection to disaster management .
Informed by UNDP Disaster Management
training Programme of 1990s, aiming to
broaden scope from past civil protection
emphasis.
Humanitarian Assistance
Organised systems of humanitarianism
emerged with red Cross movement in late
19th Century, but have grown dramatically
in the late 20th Century - in response to
refugee/IDP crises
Often with a specific impartial, neutral
relief mandate driven by ngos,
multilaterals.
(Re)Insurance and Banking
Sectors
Focus on improved management of risk
and minimisation of exposure to financial
loss.
Focused risk assessment, risk reduction
and loss sharing mechanisms.
Pressing Need for
Interdisciplinarity
No one discipline can ever address issues
driven by a multitude of hazards and
socio-economic and environmental
vulnerability factors.
The field is both multi-disciplinary and
interdisciplinary.
A Tool Kit of Key Terms
Hazard
Vulnerability
Disaster Risk
Emergency
Disaster
Risk Reduction
Disaster Reduction
Hazard (or ‘trigger’)
A phenomenon with potential to cause
harm.
(ie rain…..but rain is also a resource…)
A hazard is NOT automatically a
disaster.
Eg drought, fire, some floods, heavy
rain… are ‘normal’ elements of our
environment.
Vulnerability
Characteristics of a household,
community, province, business, ecosystem
etc that increase the likelihood of loss.
Disaster Risk
Probability that a household,
community, business, province etc… will
be unable to resist, manage or recover
from the losses sustained from a
hazard without external assistance.
Disaster Risk
Is ALWAYS driven by …
Hazard x Vulnerability.
Risk can be increased or reduced from
either side… in southern countries,
disaster risk is almost always increased by
social, economic and environmental vuln.
Disaster Reduction
Term emerged in 1990s International
Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction
Parallels developmental objectives like
…”Poverty reduction”... reflects an
objective to achieve reductions in losses
of life, of property of natural resources…
by reducing hazards/vulnerabilities
Disaster Management
Refers to a suite of measures intended to
strengthen management of risks and the
consequences of disasters.
Prevention
Mitigation
Preparedness
Response/Relief
Recovery
Prevention
Measures designed to provide permanent
protection… or reduce the intensity of a
hazardous event so it does not become a
disaster…
reforesting an unstable slope to prevent
landslides
Mitigation
Measures taken well in advance of a
hazard alert to minimise vulnerability of
communities/households to a
known/expected threat.
Eg protection of deep wells in choleraprone areas… crop diversification to
drought tolerant varieties in droughtprone areas.
Preparedness
Advance measures taken to predict,
respond to and manage a hazard
event…measures that prepare people to
react appropriately before, during and
after it.
Eg dissemination of early warning info on
approaching cyclone… intensified health
education before rainy season.
Disaster Response/Relief
Measures taken to alleviate immediate
hardship and meet basic needs for shelter
water, sanitation, health care, as well as
search and rescue of survivors.
Recovery/rehabilitation
Process undertaken by a disaster-affected
community to fully restore itself to its
predisaster level of functioning … and
which enables it to become even more
disaster-resistent.
Eg planting/harvest of drought resistent
crops…storm/cyclone-proofing essential
community buildings, schools and clinics.
Last two slides
1)Sudden-onset hazard - eg heavy rain,
earth instability, fires, many weather
systems.
2)Slow-onset hazard/process ‘creeping
emergency’ ie some communicable
diseases, drought
Types of events
Low frequency - high magnitude events
(ie usually declared disasters)… those
with long return period and large losses.
High frequency - low magnitude events
(often considered ‘normal’ /’routine’
threats… happen daily/weekly… but with
relatively small impacts).