Transcript Population Change - Geography

Population Change
Global Population Increases over
time
Zero
growth
J curve
S curve
Exponential
growth
The Exponential Growth
rate means that it starts
slowly and then grows
at an increasingly rapid
rate.
Most of the world’s population growth has
been in the last 50 years. The population is
now 6.6 billion and it will reach 8.525 billion in
2025.
What will happen in the future?
Countries grow at different
rates. Sometimes the
population of a country grows
very slowly, or very fast or
stays the same. Sometimes
populations can even decline.
The reasons for this are the
difference between the birth
and death rates.
When countries are developing and
their standards of living improving then
their death rates fall and their
populations grow.
Studies of developing countries show
that once the optimum population has
been reached then the population
growth rate falls.
Population pyramids show
how a country’s population
structure is changing.
Demographic Transition Model
Factors affecting rate of growth
Rural-to-urban migration
increases as countries
develop. People leave the
countryside and move to the
cities. The impact of
increasing urbanisation on
population growth is that
cities grow rapidly in size but
eventually falling death rates
(due to better health care,
sanitation and housing) lead
to a fall in birth rates).
The emancipation of women
means that girls have move
choices in life – they don’t have to
marry and have children as their
only choice. They can have jobs
and a role outside the home. This
leads to a fall in birth rates.
Agricultural change means
that farmers start to use
machines and new modern
techniques. This results in
fewer farming jobs and many
people have to leave the
countryside. The need for large
families to till the soil falls and
families start to have fewer
children
Education leads to a fall in birth
rates as women delay marriage
and have fewer children so that
they can continue their studies
and also have careers.
Implications of population change
Social implications:
Young dependants (aged
under 15) too few or too
many.
Elderly dependents
(aged over 65) too few or
too many.
Economically active
adults too few or too
many.
Economic
implications: Need
for more jobs,
schools, health &
social care
Need for
development so
that all people can
enjoy a good
standard of living
Need to achieve sustainable development:
A sustainable population is one whose growth and
development is at a rate that does not threaten the
success of future generations. The economy is stable
or growing and the standard of living is maintained or
improving.
Political
implications:
Need for a
stable
government (no
conflict)
Need for
policies to
control
population
growth
How can countries control their
population growth?
Ante-natal policies:
encourage families to
have fewer children
e.g. China.
Pro-natal policies:
encourage families to
have more children e.g.
France
Birth control
programmes
Other strategies: alternative population policy e.g.
Kerala, Kenya. Family planning + social change.
Improving education; treating girls as equal to boys;
providing literacy classes in towns and villages;
educating people as to the benefits of smaller families;
reducing infant mortality; vaccination programmes; free
contraception; encouraging a higher age of marriage;
providing pensions; land reform.
Case Study: China
1979 – one-child policy started. The
policy said that: marriage delayed (late
20s); only one child; sterilisation or
abortion after first child; extra pay if
only one child; extra benefits for one
child family e.g. better housing,
pension, free education. Couples who
disobeyed would have 10% cut in
salary; fines; no free health care or
education.
Policy enforced by ‘granny police’ and
officials in factories.
Problems: Late abortions were dangerous
to women’s health; power by local officials
over people’s lives; sons preferred to
daughters so female infanticide;
overindulged only children; gender
imbalance.
Benefits: Enough food for
everyone; enough jobs; increased
standard of living for everyone;
growing economy.
Ageing population
As a country becomes richer, people
live longer. The proportion of older
people increases. The birth rate falls
because there are fewer people in the
reproductive age groups of 15 -45.As a
population ages, the population
declines as there are fewer women in
the child bearing age group. More old
people means fewer workers.
Problems of an ageing
dependent population:
Increased pension bill; need
for more old people’s
homes; need for more
geriatric care; fewer
workers; burden of elderly
parents.
Government strategies to cope with more
old people: Raise old age pension age
Keep elderly fit and active
Adapt homes – stair lifts, walk in baths
Financial planning – save more for old age
Positive family planning
Barrier free society – accessible lifts, walk
ramps, walkways, pick up points
Increase birth rate
Reemployment – employ elderly people
Pay more taxes to support elderly
Case Study: EU country - France
The more the merrier
French
Parents enjoy a number of financial
incentives to have larger families
including 16 weeks' maternity leave on
full pay and generous family allowances.
In France, having three or more children
qualifies you as a famille nombreuse
which entitles you to discounted travel,
help with accommodation costs and a
discounted or zero rate of income tax.
From concerns over a decreasing birth
rate ten years ago, the French are now
enjoying a massive baby boom the birth
rate rose 5% in 2001 alone. There will
be more young people to look after the
elderly population.
% 65+
median age
growth
rat
e
Belgium
17.6
41.7
0.094
Denmar
k
16
40
0.28
France
16
36
0.546
German
y
20
43
-0.053
Italy
20
43
-0.047
UK
16
40
0.0279
Migration: Push and Pull Factors
Positive impacts of
migration:
Negative impacts
of migration:
New workers; more
skilled workers;
influx of new ideas;
multicultural
benefits – food,
music, language,
religion.
Shortage of
housing; pressure
on schools and
health care; racial
tension.
EU Economic migration and
refugees
Migration within the
EU
People move from
the poorer EU
countries e.g.
Poland to the richer
EU countries e.g.
UK in search of jobs
and opportunities.
Impacts of these
movements include:
Problems of assimilating
new arrivals – finding them
housing, jobs, education,
health care.
Benefits include new
workers, new cultural
influences.
Migration from
outside the EU
People move to
the EU from
Africa and Asia.
They move from
developing
countries such as
India to
developed
countries such as
UK in search of a
better standard of
living.
Refugee
movements are
people who have
to flee from danger
in their own
countries and they
seek asylum in a
safer country.
When war breaks
out anywhere the
number of
refugees and
asylum seekers
increases e.g. Iraq,
Somalia,
Afganistan.