Transcript The Vanishing Farm? The Impact of International

The Vanishing Farm?
The Impact of International
Migration on Albanian Family
Farming
Juna Miluka
Gero Carletto
Benjamin Davis
Alberto Zezza
Outline
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Background and Motivation
Data
Empirical Strategy
Estimation Results
Conclusions
Background
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Agriculture: a sector in turmoil
• Collapse of Communism
• Rapid de-collectivization; 93% of cooperative
land & 79% of state land privatized by 1993
• Agriculture’s contribution to GDP fell from
42.5% in 1992 to 28.1% in 2001
• Very small land sizes (≈ 1 ha), but highly
fragmented (4 plots)
• Over 90% of farmers use only family labor
• Agriculture still employs 50% of workforce
Background (cont’d)
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The migration explosion
• Country on the move
• Rural population fell by over 15% since
1990
• By 1996, 1/3 of the labor force had
migrated
• 50%+ of hh exposed to int’l migration
• 1/3 hh currently with int’l migrant
• 2/3 from rural areas (upward trend)
• Private transfers 14% of GDP (>2002);
Muco puts figure at 25% in 1997
Migration and Agriculture
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Despite magnitude of migration, and the
vast potential of migration and
remittances for agriculture, little evidence
exists on relation and impact
Empirical literature evenly split
Different channels
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income
credit
insurance
labor
Migration and Agriculture (cont’d)
Specific hypotheses:
 Labor effort
 Feminization of agriculture
 Non-labor input use (to compensate
for labor loss?)
 Technical efficiency ?
Data
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2005 Living Standards Measurement
Survey (ALSMS05)
INSTAT and the World Bank
• 3,640 total households
• 1,849 rural households
• Extended Migration Module
• Separate Agriculture Module (Fall)
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Model specifications
 Dependent
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Variables
Agricultural Labor (by gender)
Non-labor input expenses in agriculture
Technical efficiency
Income
 Independent
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Variables
Migration (IV)
Human Capital
Natural and Physical Capital
Community and Regional Characteristics
Descriptive Statistics / 1
Migrant
Non-Migrant
1,394.92
1,684.86
927.51
978.53
1,521.29
1,506.03
Percapita Female Lab. in Agriculture
(hours/year)
910.46
949.24
Crop Income (Crop only)
51,591
51,942
391,668
358,685
Equipment Rental (leks)
15,474
11,427
Chemical Inputs (leks)
13,521
9,973
Livestock Expenditure (leks)
10,400
10,821
Male Labor in Agriculture (hrs/year)
Percapita Male Labor in Ag. (hrs/year)
Female Labor in Ag. (hrs/year)
Total Agricultural Income(leks)
Descriptive Statistics / 2
Migrant
NonMigrant
11,762.2
8,216.1
10.4
4.8
9.3
10.1
Coastal region
45.0
26.4
Distance Index (Proximity to Public Facilities)
0.20
0.34
Land Disputes (% of hh)
68.4
61.2
Spoke Italian or Greek in 1990 (%)
13.8
8.1
120.0
112.1
13.7
14.4
Land Area (Square Meters)
Female Headed Households (%)
Highest Level of Education in the Household
Minimum Distance From Border Crossings
Percentage of Males 20-39 in the Municipality
Empirical Strategy
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Instrumental Variable Tobits
Instruments
 Languages
 Migration
Network
 Distance to borders
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IV Diagnostics
Estimation Results - Labor
Male Family
Labor in
Agriculture
Female Family
Labor in
Agriculture
Total
Percapita
Total
Percapita
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-
-
Female Headed Household
-
0
0
Age of Head of Household
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+
+
+
Highest Education in HH
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-
-
Natural/Physical Capital index
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+
+
+
Crime in the Community
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-
Migration
Age Head Squared
Estimation Results (cont’d)
Chemicals
Equipment
rental
Livestock
exp.
Migration
-
-
+
Age of Household Head
+
+
0
Age Head Squared
-
-
0
Land Area (sqm)
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+
0
Household plots (No)
+
+
+
Animals owned (TLU)
0
0
+
Estimation Results - Income
Total income
Migration
+
Age of Head of Household
-
Age Head Squared
+
+
Highest Education in HH
Land Area (sqm)
Animals owned (TLU)
Land disputes
+
-
Conclusions
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Moving out of agriculture?
• Fewer hours worked in total and per
capita terms
• Less reduction for women
• Less investments in productivityenhancing and time-saving farm
technologies
• Investments in livestock production
• No Impact on Crop Income and TE
• Higher incomes (RNF?)
Policy Implications
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Stagnating Agriculture
Forgone opportunity?
Managing withdrawal
Promote better use of migrants’
resources in agriculture (and RNF?)