Transcript Ernest Aryeetey

GROWTH RESEARCH FOR
AFRICA
Ernest Aryeetey
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OUTLINE

Millennium Development Goals Impose
Huge Demands/Challenges for Growth
 Evidence that growth has delivered poverty
reduction, but not fast enough in many
places
 But growth in Africa has been largely
driven by aid and non-employment
generating activities
 Hence the search for growth that stimulates
employment and structural transformation 2
Poverty Status
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Most countries have seen varied forms of reductions in
poverty, but growing inequality remains in many places.
A good example is Ghana where significant progress in
reducing poverty occurred; from 51.7% in 1992 to 39.6%
in 1999 and 28.5% in 2006
Spatial, gender and occupational disparities in distribution
of income remain prevalent.
Poverty is concentrated in the Northern, Upper West,
Upper East .
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Millennium Development Indicators
Goal 1: Eradicate Extreme Poverty
Target 1: Under this goal, the proportion of population living on less than $1(PPP) a
day in 1990 is to be halved by 2015
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Goal 2: Achieve Universal Primary Education
Target 3: Ensure that, by 2015, children everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be able to
complete a full course of primary schooling
Net enrolment ratio in primary education
120
Percentage
100
80
60
40
20
0
1990
2000
2001
2015
Year
Benin
Burkina Faso
Ghana
Senegal
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Goal 3: Promote Gender Equality and Empower Women
Target 4: Eliminate gender disparity in primary and secondary education, preferably by
2005, and at all levels of education no later than 2015
Ratio of girls to boys in secondary education
1.2
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Ratio
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1990
2001
2005
Year
Benin
Burkina Faso
Ghana
Senegal
Sierra Leone
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GOAL 4: Reduce Child Mortality
Target 5: Reduce by two-thirds, between 1990 and 2015, the under-5 mortality rate
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GOAL 5: Improve Maternal Health
Target 6: Reduce maternal mortality ratio by three-quarters by 2015
Maternal Mortality Ratio
Deaths per 100,000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1990
2000
2015
Year
Benin
Burkina Faso
Ghana
Mali
Nigeria
Senegal
Sierra Leone
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GOAL 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, Malaria and Other Diseases
Target 7: Have halted by 2015 and begun to reverse the spread of HIV/AIDS
Percentage of ages
15 - 24
Prevalence of HIV among females aged 15 - 24 in 2001
9.7
10
7.5
8
5.8
6
4
3.7
3
2
2.1
0.5
0
Benin Burkina Ghana
Faso
Mali
Nigeria Senegal Sierra
Leone
Country
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GOAL 7: Ensure Environmental Sustainability
Target 9: Integrate the principles of sustainable development into country
policies and programmes and reverse the loss of environmental resources
Proportion of land area covered by forest
Percentage of total land area
40
34.6
33.1
30.3
35
30
32.2
27.8
25.9
24
26.5
25
19.8
19.2
20
14.7
14.8
15
11.6
10
10.8
5
0
1990
2000
Year
Benin
Burkina Faso
Ghana
Mali
Nigeria
Senegal
Sierra Leone
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GOAL 8: Develop a Global Partnership for Development
Target 18: In co-operation with the private sector, make available the benefits
of new technologies, especially for information and Communication.
Proportion of rural population w ith access to an improved w ater source
Percentage of rural population
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1990
2002
2015
Year
Benin
Burkina Faso
Ghana
Mali
Nigeria
Senegal
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OPPG Studies
Annual change in poverty rate
10.0%
ZMB
6.0%
IDN
-4.00%
ROM
2.0%
BOL
0.00%
-2.0%
BRA
GHA
-6.0%
BFA
4.00%
SEN BGD
8.00%
IND
TUN
UGA
ESV
VNM
-10.0%
Annual GDP per capita growth
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Evidence of Growth and
Employment?
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There is very little
 Most new employment has been in informal
sector
 Poverty reduction has often meant a move
from agriculture into urban informal activity
with no skills
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What do we need to study?
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The challenge of creating formal
employment and attracting sustained
investment is a very key issue. What
interventions will lead to increased
formalization of employment and other
investment activities that will be part of a
broader transformation of the economy.
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We do not know enough about political
economy and institutional issues. Issues
relating to conflict, conflict prevention or
recovery from conflict. What kinds of
growth and distributional initiatives help
avoid conflict and which ones help to
provide enduring peace and further growth?
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Spatial differentials in growth patterns come
out quite strongly from several case
studies. The issue of how growth can
incorporate lagging regions or areas is a
difficult and important issue which is
certainly relevant in Africa. What form of
decentralization is most effective in this
regard?
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Gender is an important issue for growth
often understudied. How best can women’s
involvement in the economy be structured
and enhanced taking into account such
issues as technology development and
productivity for rural women, intrahousehold resource allocation, property
ownership, etc.
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Other issues not adequately studied include
– Land tenure reform
– HIV/AIDS
– Role of global trade and finance
– Agricultural modernization in rural areas
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